November 3, 2004 - 2:00 PM

World divided over possible Bush win

By Patrick Worsnip

LONDON (Reuters) - World leaders are seeking to adapt to the idea of four more years of U.S.
President George W. Bush, with friends hailing his expected re-election and critics vowing to make
the best of it, especially in Iraq.

Many Arabs forecast further bloodshed in the Middle East because of what they saw as Bush's
misguided policies, but elsewhere politicians and commentators said continuity had its merits
compared with a change of guard in the White House.

The day after Tuesday's polls, Bush had moved close to victory over Democratic Senator John
Kerry, but questions over provisional ballots in Ohio delayed a final result.

U.S. allies focused on what they saw as a more resolute line by Bush on the "war on terror"
declared by the United States after the attacks on September 11, 2001.

"Terrorism has to be rejected in today's world and in this respect George Bush is a very decisive
leader who is right, simply right," said Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski. "From Poland's
perspective continued cooperation with George Bush is really good news."

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said: "I think he (Bush) has had a lot of information on
how to deal with global security. I think many things will improve after the elections."

It was an election watched intently around the world with issues of deep international interest,
including the U.S. involvement in Iraq and the state of the U.S. economy, dominating the closely
fought race.

Leaders who supported the Iraq war and sent troops there such as Japan's Prime Minister
Junichiro Koizumi and Italy's Silvio Berlusconi had wanted to see Bush re-elected. Opponents of the
war privately made clear they preferred Kerry.

In France, which was a leading critic of the war, Foreign Minister Michel Barnier called the election
the start of "a new stage" irrespective of who won.

"We are going to work with the new U.S. administration that is formed," he said. "We have many
things to do, both on the current crises -- in Iraq, the Middle East, Iran, the fate of the African
continent -- and to renovate the transatlantic relationship."

Germany also opposed the Iraq war. There, Interior Minister Otto Schily said: "Despite the issue of
our differing positions in the past, we all have to contribute to ensuring that the situation in Iraq
stabilises."

But Karsten Voigt, Germany's top official on relations with Washington, called on Bush to move
towards the Europeans. "I hope for gestures, for offers to work together," he said.

INNOCENT VICTIMS

Middle Eastern peoples, with the exception of Israelis and some Iranians, reacted with resigned
disappointment.

Khaled Maeena, editor of Saudi newspaper Arab News, said: "Four more years means (Bush) will
be relentless in fighting so-called terrorism. More innocent people will be victims ... All the Saudis I've
seen so far are disappointed."

Sami Abu Zuhri, spokesman for the Palestinian group Hamas which is fighting Israel, said: "We
urge the new American administration to reconsider its positions ... Until they (do so) we will continue
to regard the U.S. administration as hostile to our Arab and Muslim causes."

But Iyad Allawi, prime minister of the U.S.-backed Iraqi government, told Italian daily La
Repubblica: "Whoever wins will be our friend. The United States liberated us from a dictator
(Saddam Hussein) from a very long period of war and agony."

Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said that between Bush and Kerry "there is no significant
difference when it comes to their deep and warm support for Israel".

Leaders elsewhere also said the outcome would make no difference. "Regardless of which
candidate wins, I think there will basically be no change in the recognition of friendship between
Japan and the United States," said Japan's Koizumi.

"We will work with whoever the American voters chose," said Russia's Security Council chief, Igor
Ivanov.

CONTINUITY

Many analysts agreed on the value of an unchanged administration, especially in troubled times.

Even in the Middle East, Farid Al-Khazin, political science professor at the American University of
Beirut, said: "Continuity in policy at time of war is going to be crucial and I think re-election of Bush is
far better."

For many, the crucial question now was whether Bush, if he wins, could restore goodwill eroded
by Iraq and U.S. opposition to issues with widespread global appeal such as the Kyoto pact to fight
global warming and the International Criminal Court.

Bush ally Tony Blair has made progress on climate change a top issue for his leadership of the G8
next year.