What are your experiences with housing shortages and rising property prices?
In Switzerland, it’s becoming increasingly hard for people to afford to buy a house or flat, and with demand constantly outstripping supply, rents are climbing as well. In the cities, gentrification is well under way, and politicians are still struggling to find a solution.
There is no real sign of things getting better. While the Swiss economy attracts more workers from the EU, construction just isn’t keeping up with the number of new arrivals. The country is slipping deeper into a housing crisis.
Does any of this sound familiar? Is it the same where you live — are you seeing a shortage of homes or soaring prices, whether it is for renting or buying property? We’d love to hear about your experiences.
The following contribution has been automatically translated from DE.
The purchase of the first home should be supported and from the second or third it must be made more difficult (either with support such as loans for first-time buyers or through taxes for those who already own property). It is unacceptable that with the few opportunities that still exist, people who are already homeowners can bid big (and also get mortgages more easily) and then rent them out at high prices to those who do not own a home. New laws are needed in this regard!
Der Erwerb des ersten Eigenheims soll unterstützt werden und ab dem zweiten oder dritten muss es erschwert werden (entweder mit Unterstützung wie Darlehen der Erstkäufer oder durch Steuern für die, die schon Immobilien besitzen). Es kann nicht sein, dass bei den wenigen Möglichkeiten, dies noch gibt, Leute die bereits Hausbesitzer sind, gross mitbieten können (und auch einfacher Hypotheken bekommen), um diese dann denen ohne Eigenheim teuer zu vermieten. Es braucht neue Gesetze diesbezüglich!
Hi all, I think this is absolutely wrong comparison in terms of population increase and immigration policies between both the countries. __Switzerland is definitely not making any mistake as per population growth and demand for housing. __Price increases in Switzerland are not because of housing shortage. Inflation and strengthening of Swiss Franc has been reasons for prices. (Higher costs of construction)__Even if you create a supply of housing it will not help.__Construction costs and sourcing of materials are other reason for higher prices.____This is no way of fixing values of the housing for making it affordable.____Income growth and per capita income increase will be the only way going forward. ____England is behind the curve because of poor policies and immigration. Pound has weakened in last 20 yers and Swiss franc has strengthened in last 20 years.____Absolute wrong comparison in socio economic and demographics.
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Only those who have either inherited or have good salaries have always been able to afford it anyway. This is nothing new
Das können sich seit jeher sowieso nur die leisten, die entweder geerbt haben oder gute Löhne habe. Das ist nichts Neues
The biggest mistake of my life I made when I sold my house, which I bought for 770000 Sfr for 1.25 Million. If I had waited a bit I could have got 2.5 million Sfr....
This is the question. Has there (ever) been a baby-boom in Switzerland - if so what is the number of births per woman to be categorized as baby boom? It is it more that now there is a clear and definitive shortage of children born in Switzerland and many adults without children and rarely more then 1 child or 2 - which might be due to the following factors: 1) costs (health insurance, childcare, costs if living, lack affordable flats or houses - no "space" for more children 2) due to financial pressure mostly no time for children when both work full time? The effects however are clear. More dependence on families and children born abroad and of course people grown up and educated outside of Switzerland - so the general politics and harsh environment for families might keep taxes for rich people low but in the end might jeopordize the future of Switzerland as a whole as children are the future - not just a bad phrase.
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We are living in a modern slavery era, so to speak. The property and banking lobbies want the population to work for a house or flat for the rest of their lives. The states must build social housing and sell it on to people and families who have low incomes and do not yet own a home without making a profit. In Switzerland this must be in the form of high-rise buildings as Switzerland has little land. Politics (the state) builds houses itself so that the property lobby is stopped and suppressed. There must be an initiative for state-owned flats.
Wir leben quasi in einer modernen Sklavenzeit. Immobilien und Banken Lobby wollen das die Bewölkung ganzes Lebenlang für ein Haus oder Wohnung arbeitet. __Die Staaten müssen soziale Wohnungen bauen und an die Menschen und Familien, wo niedrigen einkommen und noch kein Wohnung besitzen ohne Gewinn (Profit) weiter verkaufen. In der Schweiz muss das in Hochhäuser Form sein da die Schweiz wenig Land hat. Die Politik (Staat) baut selber Häuser damit Immobilien-Lobby gestoppt und unterdrückt wird. Es muss ein Initiative geben für die Staat-Wohnungen.
The worst part is the lack of choice (buying or renting). There are so few apartments advertised in areas within a reasonable commuting distance (bus/train) of major job hubs (and so many people competing for the same apartments!) that you are often just have to take whatever you get. ____My friends in other countries cannot understand how I can earn so much money but live in such a terrible quality apartment. Of course I would like something better, but don't want to spend all my free time playing the apartment hunting lottery - and have to pay an extra 2-3K rent per month for something slightly better :P
I think that's very true.
In many places in Switzerland home ownership often seems to involve forking over a significant portion of your life savings for the privilege of being a million francs in debt and the minority owner of an exorbitantly priced piece of real estate.____A quick formula to evaluate if buying a property is a wise financial decision is to divide the property price by the annual rent. For example, a 3.5 room apartment costs 800'000 CHF to purchase versus 2'000 CHF per month to rent (or 24'000 CHF per year). The quotient in this case is 33! ____Quite a contrast with home ownership in other countries such as the United States. It is still possible in some places in the US to purchase a home for 300'000 USD that could also be rented for 2'000 USD per month. In that example the quotient is 12.5 and buying would a better choice than renting. ____General guidelines for this quotient are that 21 renting is better, 16-20 is a draw, and less than 16 buying is the best choice.____In most places in Switzerland I think it is wiser to invest a 250'000 CHF down payment into a low-cost equities index fund rather than real estate. Assuming 8% annual returns and using the "Rule of 72" the initial investment will double in 9 years to 500'000 CHF and then double again after 9 more years to 1'000'000 CHF. ____A million francs is sufficient to be financially independent if you have a modest lifestyle. Financially independence can be defined as having 25 times your annual living expenses and assuming a 4% withdrawal rate of your portfolio. Dividends and capital gains will be sufficient for income and 8% average returns (7% after inflation) will ensure your portfolio continues to grow.
SWI SWISSINFO.CH
@Anne7
thank you for your contribution. the question of whether renting or buying is cheaper depends largely on the interest rate environment, various banks and other institutions calculate this in switzerland. currently, buying is again considered cheaper than renting. during the covid pandemic, it was the other way around.____on the subject of return on capital, it can be said that real estate has kept pace with the financial market in terms of value appreciation in recent years. because the equity ratio on real estate is usually low in switzerland, however, many have benefited disproportionately because they have also achieved increases in value with borrowed money.____an example from my personal environment: 8 years ago, a couple bought a condominium in the Zurich area for 1.05 million francs. the equity capital amounted to 400,000 francs. today, this apartment is worth around 1.8 million francs, as shown by sales in the same apartment building.____the book profit is therefore 200 percent. if the couple had only put in the minimum of 210,000 francs in equity, they would have quintupled their investment. the interest charge at that time was 0.8 percent for 10 years, i.e. 6400 francs per year. including ancillary costs and provisions, the total monthly charge is around 1500 francs, i.e. 18,000 francs per year.____in the best-case scenario, the couple would have had costs of 144,000 francs and achieved a return of 800,000 francs.____such calculations will continue to work out in switzerland as long as prices continue to rise immeasurably.
@Anne7
An interesting report on the housing affordability. I have family members living in Australia where real estate talk is a cultural pastime. I lived there for 30 years and property has exceeded the incomes of a couple with mid-career incomes. I can no longer afford to rent or buy where I left 5 years ago. My concern is for my adult children to make homes for themselves with education debt and little hope of achieving normal lifestyles with their own families for happiness, security and support. I will forward your post to my sons as I don’t fully understand the calculations and this will help to look at different scenarios. One reason we rented in Vaud and our family want to return to Switzerland but every option is looking difficult. Thanks again.
@issyvivi@me.com
The book that changed my life is called "The Simple Path to Wealth" by JL Collins. I suggest that you search for "Rent vs Owning Your Home: Opportunity Cost and Running Some Numbers", a post written my Mr. Collins on his blog. Good luck and remember that buying is not always the answer to a secure financial path, especially in pricey Switzerland!
@Marc Leutenegger
It is usually not rational to buy an apartment for 1.05 millions francs. Assuming that the apartment rents for 3'000 CHF per month the housing price to annual rent ratio quotient is is 29. This means that it would take 29 years of paying rent to reach the value of this overpriced apartment.____If the couple you mentioned had instead invested their 400'000 CHF equity capital in a low-cost stocks index fund 8 years ago (assuming 8% return) their investment would now be worth 740'372 CHF. Wait an additional 10 years (18 total years) and their investment would be worth 1'598'408 CHF. This is enough for many people to achieve financial independence. ____Locking money in a home is not a reliable investment. A home is simply an expensive indulgence. In countries where property values are significantly cheaper it may be a rational choice but in most places in Switzerland is it an unwise decision. ____It is a risky gamble to assume that property prices in Switzerland will always continue to rise. The country has low birth rates, an aging population, and a heavy reliance on foreign labor. ____I lived in the United States when the housing bubble collapsed in 2008 and triggered a major recession. I remember that many Americans at that time naively assumed that their property values would always rise. Instead 8.8 million "homeowners" (debtors) were in the disastrous situation of having "underwater mortgages". Home values fell so precipitously that these debtors owed more on their mortgages than the properties were worth. ____Swiss "underwater mortgages" will be more damaging to the debtors than their American counterparts because the Swiss mortgages are 1-10 times higher. ____Financial independence is possible in Switzerland due to high average incomes and relatively low taxes. However, in my opinion purchasing a residential property in most Swiss cities will quickly sabotage any hopes of ever being financially independent.
SWI SWISSINFO.CH
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@issyvivi@me.com
Thank you for your contribution. In Switzerland, talking about property is probably also a cultural pastime. It's probably because of the emotions involved, and sometimes there's a pinch of voyeurism.____The Australian market is relentless, I have friends in Sydney and spent my last really long holidays there. I understand what you mean, many locations have also become completely unaffordable. And it's even more difficult in the rental market, where you're at the mercy of the landlords.
Vielen Dank für Ihren Beitrag. In der Schweiz ist das Reden über Immobilien wohl auch ein kultureller Zeitvertreib. Es dürfte an den Emotionen liegen, die damit verknüpft sind, auch eine Prise Voyeurismus ist manchmal dabei.____Der australischer Markt ist unerbittlich, ich habe Freunde in Sydney und dort auch meine letzten richtig langen Ferien verbracht. Ich verstehe, was Sie meinen, viele Lagen sind auch völlig unerschwinglich geworden. Und noch schwieriger ist es im Mietmarkt, wo man der Willkür der Vermietenden ausgeliefert ist.
SWI SWISSINFO.CH
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@Anne7
I am of course familiar with the doctrine of the financial indipendence movement and agree with much of it. In the end, they are all forecasts - and the question is which market performs better. You can also make several 1000 per cent profit on the capital market in 8 years - with the corresponding risk.____But to stay with my calculation example: The couple would have made a profit of 800,000 francs in 8 years with 200,000 francs in deposits (instead of 400,000) - and saved around 100,000 francs in monthly costs compared to a rental solution. They say that in the same period, the couple could have earned CHF 340,000 on the capital market with CHF 400,000 in assets. Calculated on 200,000 francs, that would still be a profit of 170,000 francs. If you deduct the 100,000 francs higher living costs from this, you are left with 70,000 francs - compared to 800,000.____But a property crisis can change everything. Just like a stock market crash, at least for the time being. In Switzerland, the question is whether the difference between median wages and prices can become arbitrarily large. And this question is decided by excess demand.
Ich kenne natürlich die Doktrin der Financial-Indipendence-Bewegung und bin mit vielem einverstanden. Am Ende sind alles Prognosen - und die Frage ist, welcher Markt besser läuft. Man kann am Kapitalmarkt in 8 Jahren auch mehrere 1000 Prozent Gewinn machen - mit entsprechendem Risiko.____Aber um in meinem Rechenbeispiel zu bleiben: Das Paar hätte mit 200'000 Franken Einlagen (statt 400 000) in 8 Jahren 800'000 Franken Gewinn gemacht - und gegenüber einer Mietlösung bei den monatlichen Kosten rund 100 000 Franken gespart. Sie sagen, im selben Zeitraum hätte das Paar mit 400'000 Franken an Anlagevermögen 340'000 Franken am Kapitalmarkt verdienen können. Auf 200 000 Franken gerechnet wären das noch 170'000 Franken an Gewinn. Zieht man davon die um 100 000 Franken höheren Lebenskosten ab, bleiben 70 000 Franken - gegenüber 800 000.____Aber eine Immobilienkrise kann alles ändern. Genauso wie ein Börsencrash, zumindest vorläufig. In der Schweiz stellt sich die Frage, ob die Differenz zwischen Medianlöhnen und Preisen beliebig gross werden kann. Und diese Frage entscheidet sich am Nachfrageüberhang.
@Marc Leutenegger
@Marc Leutenegger__A home is not actually an investment, it is just a roof over one's head. There are very few real estate markets that can match the long-term growth curve of 7% compound interest. And the few that match or exceed that growth likely are in a speculative bubble. Long term the only reliable way to grow wealth is to invest in a low-cost stocks index fund.____Personally I look forward to stock market crashes because they are excellent opportunities to purchase stocks at a discount. 3 out of 7 years will be negative on the stock market. Sometimes an entire decade can go by with with stagnant growth. However, long term the (US) stock market always goes up. The US stock market's S
SWI SWISSINFO.CH
@Anne7
you're forgetting the debt capital. in Switzerland, 80 percent of real estate can be financed with debt capital - and money is cheap. currently, you get a mortage for over ten years for only 1.5 percent. and there are still current mortgages with an interest rate under 1 percent. if you compare this with the increase in the value of real estate of around 4 percent, you get a handsome return on borrowed money. but often this is not realized, it remains tied up until retirement or inheritance. to sum it up: it depends on the market. and I will not argue against long term investing in the stock market :D
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Getting off the beaten track (and the urban illusion)____Apparently, living 500 metres from your office has become the ultimate ideal for living. The result is that everyone is congregating in the same big cities, which can't get enough of being desired, while well-served, liveable and humane communities wait in vain for their turn.____We hear of a dramatic shortage in Geneva and Zurich. Is there? Yet a few clicks on a property website will reveal thousands of available homes. Could it be a mirage? Or is it simply that they're not located five minutes from a conceptual café serving organic matcha? It seems that the urban exodus is all very well, but only if the train serves the trendy bakery directly. ____And all the while, the dream is being built... in concrete. Glorious "sustainable neighbourhoods" are springing up all over the place, made up of stacked cubes, max-priced micro-housing and postage-stamp loggias. The whole thing smacks of 60s housing estates, but with a touch of greenwashing: a little more insulation, a green facade for the photo, and you've got "innovative" housing. What about opposite views? Ah, it's never been so close - at least you can get to know your neighbours without leaving your sofa.____So no, salvation won't come from yet another 'intelligent' project in the city, or from an eco-neighbourhood where people suffocate better, but cleaner. Perhaps it's time to admit that Switzerland is more than just three overworked conurbations. The rest of the country exists. Maybe it's time to rediscover it... before we start concreting over what's left of it.
Sortir des sentiers battus (et de l’illusion urbaine)____Apparemment, vivre à 500 mètres de son bureau est devenu l’ultime idéal de vie. Résultat : tout le monde s’agglutine dans les mêmes grandes villes, qui n’en peuvent plus d’être désirées, pendant que des communes bien desservies, vivables et humaines attendent leur tour… en vain.____On nous parle d’une pénurie dramatique à Genève ou Zurich. Ah bon ? Pourtant, quelques clics sur un site immobilier montrent des milliers de logements disponibles. Serait-ce un mirage ? Ou est-ce simplement qu’ils ne sont pas situés à cinq minutes d’un café conceptuel servant du matcha bio ? On dirait que l’exode urbain, c’est bien, mais seulement si le train dessert directement la boulangerie branchée.____Et pendant ce temps, on construit du rêve… version béton. De glorieux "quartiers durables" surgissent un peu partout, faits de cubes empilés, de micro-logements à prix maxi, de loggias format timbre-poste. Tout ça sent bon les grands ensembles des années 60, mais avec une touche de greenwashing : un peu plus d’isolation, une façade verte pour la photo, et hop, ça devient de l’habitat "innovant". Le vis-à-vis ? Ah, il n’a jamais été aussi proche — au moins, vous pouvez faire connaissance avec vos voisins sans quitter votre canapé.____Alors non, le salut ne viendra pas d’un énième projet "intelligent" en ville, ni d’un écoquartier où l’on étouffe mieux, mais plus proprement. Peut-être serait-il temps d’admettre que la Suisse ne s’arrête pas à trois agglomérations surmenées. Le reste du pays existe. Il serait peut-être temps de le redécouvrir… avant de bétonner ce qu’il en reste.
SWI SWISSINFO.CH
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@Mister Mike
You are right, there is a trend in Switzerland to move to the city, just as there is in neighbouring European countries. This leads to additional distortions in demand and drives up prices. And the occasional complaint that certain locations are no longer affordable for the vast majority of the population can also be criticised. A view of Lake Zurich or Lake Geneva is not a human right. In fact, the Swiss housing crisis runs deep. The Association of Master Builders warned this year that far too few flats are still being built. The vacancy rate across Switzerland as a whole will fall below one per cent, which means a nationwide housing shortage. Even less fashionable locations have become very expensive. If you look for a 5.5-room apartment in Bülach, for example, you will currently find two offers. The price is CHF 3300 per month, which requires an income of CHF 10,000 per month.
Sie haben Recht, es gibt in der Schweiz einen Trend, in die Stadt zu ziehen, genauso wie im europäischen Umland. Das führt bei der Nachfrage zu zusätzlichen Verzerrungen und treibt die Preise an. Und die gelegentliche Klage darüber, dass gewisse Lagen nicht mehr zahlbar sind für den allergrössten Teil der Bevölkerung, kann man auch kritisch sehen. Der Blick auf den Zürich oder Genfersee ist kein Menschenrecht. Tatsächlich aber reicht die Schweizer Wohnungskrise tief. Der Baumeisterverband hat dieses Jahr gewarnt, es würden noch immer viel zu wenig Wohnungen gebaut. Die Leerstandsquote über die gesamte Schweiz werde unter ein Prozent fallen, das bedeutet flächendeckende Wohnungsnot. Auch wenig mondäne Lagen sind unterdessen sehr teuer geworden. Sucht man Beispielsweise in Bülach eine 5,5-Zimmer-Wohhung, findent man aktuell zwei Angebote. Preis 3300 Franken pro Monat, das setzt bereits ein Einkommen von 10 000 Franken im Monat voraus.
The following contribution has been automatically translated from ES.
In Spain, where practically everyone was able to own their own home, the trend is downwards due to rising prices and low salaries.
En España donde prácticamente todos conseguíamos tener vivienda propia, la tendència és a la baja por el encarecimiento del precio y los s bajos salarios
Simple... The world's population is growing too fast...Eight Billion,8,000,000,000
This yet your cantonal migration officials deny me from extending my stay for 2 weeks to finish installations for two flats for swiss client. People are waiting but due to some mishaps in rebuild of house I experienced delays. Now I can not finish my job to let people use their bathrooms and kitchens and canton says client should find someone local which they failed at because timeframe given by only local company was 2 years and now I have to figure out some one else probably ofc also from abroad which makes delay on my side growing to months cause it's not easy to find someone willing to take over some one else's job and do it asap and it would be just enough if they let me 2 weeks longer. To just calmly connect all stuff and be gone not even Shure if I ever come back to swiss cause I work all over Europe and do specialized direct PV to water installations and all kind of special cases that no one wants to even give price for... Yet your government clearly want 4 more people to struggle longer with having access to their new homes. Gz
I first came to Switzerland in 1971. Later, in 1978, I came again in search of a house. I found nothing for sale and no agents to assist with looking. I ended up living in France for a year and gave up the search. I came back in 1987 to get married to a Swiss in St. Gallen. While the marriage last 22 years with two children, we never had enough savings or potential to secure a mortgage. I could not find a job equivalent to my education, skills and experience, so I returned to Canada and worked as a CEO. I returned in 1995 and still couldn't afford a house or mortgage. I commuted to California, again with a CEO salary, and still couldn't find a home or loan. The marriage ended and I moved to Saanen SG and Mont-sur-Rolle VD. I ended up with a terminal disease and received no medical help from a single doctor or hospital across the country. I was able to find a cure from an incurable disease, ALS. I returned to North America and earned a sufficient income at the age of 65, to finally buy a house in CH. I stayed away from large cities and settled in an idyllic valley surrounded by snow capped mountains with aerodrome, fast trains, and nature in 4 directions (Bex, VD). I bought a 110 year old maison de maitre and have spent the last two years restoring it. Two weeks ago, I remarried with a friend I met 48 years ago. While my earlier experience in NE Switzerland was anti-social, zenophobic and displaying no help for foreigners, I became a Swiss and now happily live in Swiss Romande. ____It is not an easy country to adapt to and one must live here knowing that its culture is deeply rooted in centuries of tradition which is acutely stubborn to new ideas socially. Living above this common fault of an inward-looking European nation can be done. My only wish is that two Swiss children who have rejected their foreign father would be old enough and wise to respect the decades I contributed to their upbringing, education and realities of the world, not just with a set of blinkers that think Switzerland is a Godsend above the rest. ____Buying a home is an American/Canadian dream founded on escaping the norm of the European traditions those emigrants escaped long ago. However, the Swiss can adopt a better strategy of individual home ownership by avoiding the trap set by banks, notaries, real estate agents and greedy home sellers that demanding astronomical prices is a rule of thumb in a sustainable global market. It used to be that Swiss home values remained rock solid at low prices with less than a 1% annual increase. The entire house selling supply chain is responsible for driving up values by double digits annually. ____With prices at unrealistic rates, no one should feed the monster of greed and adopt this blindly. Mass austerity for a few years will bring sellers and their support group back to lower prices. Either that, or the Swiss economy will inflate itself beyond any ability to sustain it, and the economy will crash into a multi-year recession. Rather than blow my entire pension on any form of luxury, I continue to walk or bike to the market place and spend as much monthly as I did when I was in my twenties. I also dropped the opening demand price by 25%, but even that was paying too much demanded two years ago. __Learn to bargain wisely. Conduct a thorough inspection for all the faults or the house and its necessary upgrades before signing any contracts. The notary screwed us on that one. But we continue to live frugally and can afford our lifestyle.____Sorry for the length of this reply, but hopefully there are some nuggets of intelligence and whining on theories.
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Here in South Korea, living in flats is the norm. Renting is possible, but buying one is impossible. All the people I know around me borrow money for life to be able to buy a flat, this happens only in the capital, or in the most populated cities of the country. I am 28 years old and my partner is 32 years old, we want to get married and start a family. Both of us have been saving for a long time, but buying a clean and decent flat close to our jobs to start a family without loans is impossible in this country.
Aquí en Corea del Sur, lo normal es vivir en apartamentos. Rentarlos es posible.__Sin embargo, comprar uno es imposible. Todas las personas que conozco a mi alrededor piden prestamos de por vida para poder comprar un apartamento, esto sucede solo en la capital, o en las ciudades más pobladas del país. Yo tengo 28 años y mi pareja 32 años, queremos casarnos y formar una familia. Los dos hemos estado ahorrando desde hace tiempo sin embargo, comprar un apartamento limpio y descente cerca de nuestros trabajos para formar una familia sin prestamos es algo imposible en este país.
SWI SWISSINFO.CH
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@CECI
Thank you for your contribution. In Switzerland, people don't actually buy property without loans either, it's not very attractive from a tax point of view, at least with the current legal situation. Given the prices, full financing would also not be possible for most younger people. What distinguishes the Swiss mortgage market from others is the low interest rates and the fact that there are no or very limited instalment obligations.
Vielen Dank für ihren Beitrag. In der Schweiz werden eigentlich auch keine Immobilien ohne Kredite gekauft, das ist steuerlich nicht sehr attraktiv, zumindest mit der aktuellen Rechtslage. Angesichts der Preise wäre eine Vollfinanzierung für die meisten jüngeren Personen auch nicht möglich. Was den Schweizer Hypothekenmarkt von anderen unterscheidet, sind die tiefen Zinsen und dass es keine bis sehr zurückhaltende Abzahlungsverpflichtungen gibt.
Hilo,____Even though I'm in the US, it's the same problem, how to wrench a few bucks out of those ever expanding conglomerate feudal lords building their castles, estates, and future for 200 years of their families. I mean, why invest in building housing with only long term, moderate returns? Perhaps you can offer them a partial tax credit and their name on a statue __somewhere? The last time things were this bad is when those Roman and feudal devils convinced the poor rich that protectionism and expansionism was better than feeding and caring for the larger community at at hand. I mean, you gotta feel sorry for them(yeah right) they say if they don't keep expanding, then the next conglomerate will take them over. Worry, worry. I guess devils don't trust one another, surprise, surprise. As Tutle the turtle always was taught, "Be what you is, not what you is not, folks that does this is the happiest lot". Sincerely yours in fighting greed and malevolence, Robert Tobery (tobias) St Laurent
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This study really differs from the others and is dubious in a number of respects: ____. What is the expert basing his prediction of a fall in life expectancy on? Other studies predict the opposite: in the worst case, life expectancy could stagnate. ____2. Boomers won't be the only ones driving demand: Generation X will follow at the same age, with greater financial resources, followed later on by millennials. Reminder to the expert: In Switzerland, fortunes (even modest middle-class fortunes) are passed on with little or no taxation. ____3. Demographics in Switzerland have been sustained by immigration, which the expert seems to ignore, as he appears to be basing his opinion essentially on the birth rate: In our country, generation X is larger in number than the boomers. ____4. The exodus from rural areas has been predicted for a long time but has never materialised in Switzerland: The country is too small and demand for real estate is so strong that the outlying regions are following the rise, albeit more moderately. ____5. The expert does not take into account the possible abolition of rental values, which could further support demand for property as a tax incentive.____6. Hardly a word is said about per capita living space, which is constantly increasing, helping to sustain demand.____7. No one had seen prices rise like this 20 years ago. Predictions should be treated with caution. ____ Realistically, only a severe and protracted economic crisis (putting an end to mass immigration) followed by marked deflation could turn the market around.
Cette étude diffère vraiment des autres et est douteuse sur quelques aspects:____1. Sur quoi se base l’expert pour annoncer une baisse de l’espérance de vie ? D’autres études prédisent l’inverse: Dans le pire des cas celle-ci pourrait stagner. ____2. Les boomers ne seront pas les seuls à soutenir la demande : La génération X arrivera derrière au même âge avec des moyens financiers supérieurs puis plus tard les milleniaux. Rappel à l’expert : En Suisse, __les fortunes (même celles modestes de la classe moyenne) se transmettent avec une imposition limitée voire inexistante. ____3. La démographie en Suisse a été soutenue par l’immigration ce que semble ignorer l’expert qui paraît se baser essentiellement sur la natalité: Dans notre pays, la generation X est plus grosse en nombre que celle des boomers. ____4. L’exode des régions rurales est prédit depuis longtemps mais ne s’est jamais concrétisé en Suisse: Le pays est trop exigu et la demande en immobilier tellement soutenue que les régions périphériques suivent la hausse mais de façon plus modérée. ____5. L’expert ne tient pas compte d’une possible suppression de la valeur locative qui pourrait soutenir encore d’avantage la demande immobilière par attractivité fiscale.____6. Pas un mot ou presque sur la surface habitable par habitant qui ne cesse de s’accroître contribuant à soutenir la demande.____7. Personne n’avait vu une telle évolution des prix il y a 20 ans. Il faut rester prudent avec les prédictions. ____De façon réaliste, seule une grave et longue crise économique (mettant un terme à l’immigration de masse) suivie d’une déflation marquée pourrait renverser le marché.
SWI SWISSINFO.CH
The following contribution has been automatically translated from DE.
@Millenial
Thank you for your comment. Many of the arguments you cite are also mentioned by many other experts, such as the higher per capita land consumption. ____However, I would like to make it clear that the Basel demographer quoted is not predicting or factoring in a decline in life expectancy, but rather a possible decline or stagnation in population figures in Switzerland. The Federal Statistical Office does not rule out such a scenario either. The reference scenario, on the other hand, assumes continued growth.____ The change in the ratio of working population to retirees also plays a role in the prediction of a possible crisis because, statistically speaking, retirees are more likely to sell property than buy it. Changing household types also play a role, with more small households and fewer large families. As described above, UBS also expects a demographic effect on prices in decentralised locations.____ The decisive factor in the development is and remains difficult to calculate; it is labour migration from the EU, which is closely linked to economic development.
Vielen Dank für Ihren Kommentar. Viele Argumente, die sie aufzählen, nennen auch viele andere Expertinnen und Experten, etwa den höheren Flächenverbrauch pro Kopf. ____Allerdings möchte ich hier klar stellen, dass der zitierte Basler Demograph keinen Rückgang der Lebenserwartung vorhersagt oder einkalkuliert, sondern einen möglichen Rückgang oder eine Stagnation der Bevölkerungszahlen in der Schweiz. Auch das Bundesamt für Statistik schliesst ein solches Szenario nicht aus. Das Referenzszenario geht hingegen von einem fortdauernden Wachstum aus.____Ein Rolle spielt in der Vorhersage einer möglichen Krise auch die Veränderung des Verhältnisses von arbeitstätiger Bevölkerung und Pensionären, weil statistisch gesehen die Pensionäre eher Eigentum verkaufen als kaufen. Und eine Rolle spielen auch die ändernden Haushaltstypen, mehr Kleinhaushalte, weniger Grossfamilien. Auch die UBS erwartet, wie beschrieben, an dezentralen Lagen einen demographischen Effekt auf die Preise.____Der entscheidende Faktor in der Entwicklung ist und bleibt schwer kalkulierbar, es ist die Arbeitsmigration aus der EU, die eng an die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung gebunden ist.
I am a single professional, women who got a mortgage from the single, average income. I put my inheritance, not huge on Swiss standards, as down payment for a 3.5 room apartment in a small town of canton of St. Gallen. My apartment is in old building, no high end finishes, nothing fancy. But it is mine to have. Forget houses, forget new builds, forget any finishes that are not coming from chain stores and apartments are not so expensive. Forget canton of Zurich, choose any town with railway station and modest finishes. A lot can be found in 400k to 500k CHF range.
SWI SWISSINFO.CH
The following contribution has been automatically translated from DE.
@Margarett
Thank you very much for your contribution. You are right, there are still favourable locations in Switzerland, in fact we visited the most expensive and the cheapest municipality in Switzerland for a report that will be published soon. In the latter, you can buy an Art Nouveau house with a 5.5-room and a 3.5-room flat in good condition for less than 800,000 francs. The other place doesn't even have a 1.5-room flat for that price.
Vielen Dank für Ihren Beitrag. Sie haben recht, es gibt noch günstige Lagen in der Schweiz, tatsächlich haben wir für eine Reportage, die demnächst erscheint, die teuerste und die günstigste Gemeinde der Schweiz besucht. In letzterer können Sie ein Jugendstil-Haus mit einer 5,5- und einer 3,5-Zimmer-Wohnung in gutem Zustand für unter 800 000 Franken kaufen. Dafür gibt es am anderen Ort nicht einmal eine 1,5-Zimmer-Wohnung.
The problem is one of supply: there isn't a supply.__Subsidies for buyers, or prices dropping because of recession is not going to solve the fundamental problem that there isn't enough housing.__The solution is simple: build, or repurpose existing buildings.____Low hanging fruit is likely to convert commercial real estate into residential. The move towards hybrid and remote means commercial real estate is already under-utilized, and companies are trying to push for Return To Office to not have to take massive write-downs in the value.____In places like Zug, where the shortage is the worst, it's frequently more than gigantic mailboxes.____The next level, is allow new builds to be higher (so more apartments can be built on the same land).__And the next level after that is freeing up more land to be built upon.____The solutions exist, are simple and obvious. The question is, will special interests, existing house owners, and politicians want a solution
SWI SWISSINFO.CH
The following contribution has been automatically translated from DE.
@wfaler
Thank you for your contribution. An expert we interviewed on the subject - the interview is expected to be published at the end of the week - came to the same conclusion: only an increase in construction activity will ease the situation. The question is how to make building in Switzerland attractive to investors again? The lower interest rate environment is likely to have a positive effect with some delay, but land is scarce and densification is often not worthwhile for investors, or only if a total refurbishment is due anyway. If the state insists on the absorption of added value, for example in the design plan procedure, this may fulfil a socio-political concern, but this in turn has a dampening effect on construction activity. Switzerland is faced with a trade-off: Does it want to once again zone land on a grand scale and change spatial planning to do so, does it want to promote higher density by enabling private profits - or are landscape protection and fair distribution more important concerns? It's a dilemma, and the cities in particular are in a difficult position; politically on the left, they find it difficult to commit themselves to a liberal market solution. However, the current consensus solution - the promotion of non-profit housing - is reaching its limits, as shown by the figures from Zurich, where the targeted proportion of non-profit housing has not been achieved for years, despite political efforts.
Vielen Dank für Ihren Beitrag. Ein Experte, den wir zum Thema befragt haben - das Interview erscheint voraussichtlich Ende Woche - kommt zu demselben Schluss: Allein eine Vermehrung der Bautätigkeit werde eine Entspannung bringen. Die Frage ist, wie man das Bauen in der Schweiz für Investoren wieder attraktiv machen kann? Das tiefere Zinsumfeld dürfte sich mit einiger Verzögerung zwar positiv auswirken, der Boden aber ist knapp und Verdichten rechnet sich für Investoren oft nicht respektive nur, wenn ohnehin eine Totalsanierung ansteht. Besteht der Staat auf die Mehrwertabschöpfung, etwa im Gestaltungsplanverfahren, ist damit zwar einem sozialpolitischen Anliegen Rechnung getragen, auf die Bautätigkeit wirkt sich das aber wiederum bremsend aus. Die Schweiz steht vor einer Güterabwägung: Will sie noch einmal im grossen Stil Land einzonen und dafür die Raumplanung ändern, will sie eine höhere Dichte fördern, indem sie private Gewinne ermöglicht - oder sind Landschaftsschutz und gerechte Verteilung wichtigere Anliegen? Es ist ein Dilemma, und gerade die Städte sind in einer schwierigen Position, politisch eher links fällt es ihnen schwer, sich für eine marktliberale Lösung zu engagieren. Die heutige Konsenslösung - die Förderung des gemeinnützigen Wohnbaus - stösst aber an ihre Grenzen, das zeigen die Zahlen aus Zürich, wo der angepeilte Gemeinnützigkeitsanteil seit Jahren nicht erreicht wird, der politischen Anstrengungen zum Trotz.
This is nonsense. My wife and I moved to Switzerland 7 years ago with no money at all but got well paying jobs because of our professions. With a combined annual income of just under 170kchf, we saved the money for the down payment of a home in 4 years, about 150kchf. Not in Zürich (that's for stupid people), but in FR, with a vineyard and a lake before our door. We did not buy an expensive car, rent an expensive apartment, buy expensive things. We worked hard, and saved our money. Now we are home owners of a brand new home we built with an architect. ____You don't need 200kchf a year, just stop going to restaurants, spending 50chf on lunch, buying big stupid cars, buying LV bags. Be financially responsible and you can easily save up an buy a house. Once the down payment is secure, the very low interest rates and requirement to only pay 1/3 in 15 years means you can pay the bank 2000 a month and never pay rent again. Hard work, sacrifice, self control. Done.
SWI SWISSINFO.CH
The following contribution has been automatically translated from DE.
@DSO
Thank you for your contribution, location does indeed play a decisive role. For our series on the Swiss property market, we therefore visited the most expensive and the cheapest municipality in Switzerland. The difference is so huge that you wonder whether you are still in the same country. You can read this text on our website next week. In fact, even in the canton of Zurich, where the average house costs over 1.6 million francs, houses can be bought for just over a million francs in certain locations, particularly in Zurich's Weinland region. However, the price rises as soon as a house is located near a railway station or in a municipality with a well-developed infrastructure. In the city of Zurich, on the other hand, an average house now costs around CHF 150,000 per year. In Geneva and Basel, you also have to save almost six figures a year to keep up with the market.
Vielen Dank für Ihren Beitrag, die Lage spielt tatsächlich eine entscheidende Rolle. Wir haben für unsere Serie über den Schweizer Immobilienmarkt deshalb die teuerste und die günstigste Gemeinde der Schweiz besucht. Der Unterschied ist so gewaltig, dass man sich fragt, ob man noch im gleichen Land ist. Nächste Woche können Sie diesenText auf unserer Webseite lesen. Tatsächlich sind selbst im Kanton Zürich, wo das durchschnittliche Haus über 1,6 Millionen Franken kostet, an gewissen Lagen Häuser für etwas über eine Million Franken zu erwerben, namentlich im Zürcher Weinland. Allerdings steigt der Preis, sobald ein Haus in Bahnhofsnähe liegt oder in einer Gemeinde mit gut ausgebauter Infrastruktur. In der Stadt Zürich hingegen verteuert sich ein durchschnittliches Haus heute pro Jahr um rund 150 000 Franken. Auch in Genf und Basel müssen sie pro Jahr knapp sechsstellig sparen, um mit dem Markt mitzukommen.
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