Global recession is "inevitable"

Economists at the Swiss bank UBS have added a further gloomy forecast by announcing that a global recession, led by the United States, is now unavoidable.

This content was published on October 22, 2008

Switzerland may dodge the worst of the downturn but UBS still expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth to shrink to 0.2 per cent in 2009 from 1.9 per cent this year.

The forecast states "recession can no longer be avoided" in the US despite efforts by the government to stimulate the financial sector with an emergency cash injection. GDP growth is predicted to hit minus figures in the US and the Eurozone.

Japan's economy will stagnate next year while growth in the Asian giants, such as China, will slow down significantly, the prognosis states.

Germany and Switzerland are expected to fare better, having "avoided excesses in the real estate market and in private consumption". But the Swiss economy will still suffer because of its reliance on the export sector and finance industry, UBS predicts.

The KOF Swiss economic institute has already predicted a mini recession in Switzerland, but Credit Suisse painted a less bleak picture by forecasting one per cent growth in 2009.

In compliance with the JTI standards

In compliance with the JTI standards

More: SWI certified by the Journalism Trust Initiative

You can find an overview of ongoing debates with our journalists here. Please join us!

If you want to start a conversation about a topic raised in this article or want to report factual errors, email us at

Change your password

Do you really want to delete your profile?

Your subscription could not be saved. Please try again.
Almost finished... We need to confirm your email address. To complete the subscription process, please click the link in the email we just sent you.

Discover our weekly must-reads for free!

Sign up to get our top stories straight into your mailbox.

The SBC Privacy Policy provides additional information on how your data is processed.