Stocks Halt Rally in Countdown to Inflation Report: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street refrained from making big bets ahead of a key inflation report, with stocks losing steam after climbing to the brink of all-time highs. Treasuries fluctuated. The dollar rose.
With the earnings season almost done, investors are turning to economic data for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will be able cut rates in September. Markets barely budged after reports President Donald Trump extended a pause of tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days. The S&P 500 remained below 6,400. Apple Inc. slid after its best week since 2020. Intel Corp. climbed as its chief was expected to meet with Trump.
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The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.28%. A dollar gauge rose 0.3%. Bitcoin briefly topped $122,000. Gold futures held losses after Trump said imports of bullion won’t be subject to US tariffs.
Data due Tuesday is forecast to show US consumers saw a slight pickup in inflation as retailers gradually raised prices on a variety of items subject to higher import duties.
“The market’s reaction to any surprises in the numbers could be exaggerated — especially if a significantly hotter-than-expected CPI print leads traders to believe the Fed may not cut rates at its next meeting,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
The Fed’s two vice chairs, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are under consideration to serve as chair of the central bank when the position opens next year, according to two administration officials. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will interview additional candidates in the coming weeks, said the officials.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 18% of investors believe that the market reaction to CPI will be “risk-on,” 43% said “mixed” and 39% “risk-off”.
The core consumer price index, regarded as a measure of underlying inflation because it strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% in July, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
“There is no doubt about it, CPI, will not be good tomorrow,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. “The bigger question is ‘does it matter?’ We think not. Inflation will remain sticky, with potholes, but a weakening employment situation will commandeer the Fed outlook.”
Money markets show traders have priced in more than two rate reductions by December, with an about 80% probability of a quarter-point Fed cut as early as next month.
There’s a 70% chance of further gains in the S&P 500 after the inflation report, according to the JPMorgan Chase & Co. Market Intelligence team led by Andrew Tyler. They predict the S&P 500 will advance as much as 2% if the data is either in-line or cooler than estimated. A hot report could spark declines of nearly 3%.
“There’s little evidence that tariffs are biting,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “Retail flows remain strong, institutions are hesitant but still buyers, and share repurchase activity is on pace to hit a record.” He continues to expect a “sideways trend” until a broader reset later this year.
A light print on US CPI data this week could mean small caps and lower quality stocks would “gain more durable footing,” according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
“We think it makes sense for equity investors to stay nimble” around the report.
Meantime, strategists at Citigroup Inc. raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,600 points from 6,300. Companies have produced “an impressive beat,” while also mostly sticking with their projections for the second-half of the year, the team led by Scott Chronert said.
US companies struck a more positive tone last week on post-earnings conference calls, although there’s still uncertainty around consumer demand and capex, according to RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Lori Calvasina.
“For now, investors are choosing to focus on what they can see in front of them, which is stronger-than-expected earnings growth, a durable AI secular theme, and a still firm economic backdrop,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
However, Saglimbene said this week’s key inflation data and reads on the consumer could challenge investors’ rather complacent view of the potential risks to growth.
“Yet, until there is more concrete evidence of tariff impacts, investors appear comfortable putting those risks to the side for now,” he noted.
A record share of fund managers see US stocks as too expensive after the sharp rally since April lows, according to a monthly survey by Bank of America Corp. About 91% of participants indicated that US stocks are overvalued, the highest ever proportion in data going back to 2001.
“We think investors already allocated to equities in line with their strategic benchmarks should consider implementing short-term hedges, while those under-allocated can prepare to add exposure on potential market dips,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Meantime, interest-rate strategists at BofA lowered Treasury yield forecasts in anticipation that recent economic data will drive a shift in the Fed’s assessment of risks.
Strategists led by Mark Cabana cut their year-end forecast for two-year yields to 3.5%, from 3.75% previously. They see 10-year yields at 4.25% by the end of December compared with the previous estimate of 4.5%.
On the geopolitical front, President Trump downplayed expectations for his upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin as he seeks to end the war in Ukraine, casting it as a “feel-out meeting” and saying he would confer with Ukrainian and European leaders after the sitdown.
Trump also said he hopes China will massively step up its purchases of American soybeans, even as China has yet to book any cargoes for the upcoming season.
Corporate Highlights:
Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. have agreed to pay 15% of their revenues from Chinese AI chip sales to the US government. The chip companies’ consent to cede part of chip sales underscores the urgency of their desire to cater to customers in the world’s second-largest economy. Micron Technology Inc. raised its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue and earnings outlook, citing “improved pricing” for a key product. The Trump administration released new guidance outlining how states can use federal funds to build electric-car chargers after a federal court blocked an earlier move to freeze the program. C3.ai Inc. tumbled after a steep sales miss the software company attributed to its founder’s health issues. Rumble Inc. is weighing an offer to buy German data center company Northern Data AG in an all-stock deal valuing the target at about $1.17 billion that would boost the conservative video service’s bid to become a cloud-computing provider. Ford Motor Co. unveiled plans for a new line of budget electric vehicles in a $5 billion bid to achieve the mass appeal that has so far eluded its money-losing EV business. General Motors Co. is seeking to lure back some former employees of its defunct Cruise autonomous-vehicle business as part of a renewed push to develop a new driverless car, according to people familiar with the matter. One person has died and several others are injured after an explosion at a United States Steel Corp. plant in Pennsylvania. Walt Disney Co.’s ESPN and Fox Corp. plan to offer a bundled package that will include both of their new streaming services for $40 a month. Paramount has acquired the exclusive rights to show all events from the Ultimate Fighting Championship in the US over the next seven years, the companies announced Monday, a $7.7 billion deal designed to boost the Paramount+ streaming service. Management of Orsted A/S failed to convince analysts and investors that the company is at a turning point after losing nearly one third of its value from announcing it would sell shares. Barrick Mining Corp. posted a net charge of $1.04 billion related to the seizure of its vast Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex by Mali’s military junta. Electricite de France SA was forced to shut four atomic reactors after a swarm of jellyfish clogged up filter drums at its Gravelines power plant. What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“US stocks no longer look like a one-sided market chasing upside, and any rallies driven by expectations for Federal Reserve support are primed for a sharp unwind if the narrative of a dovish pivot is challenged.”
– Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
For the full analysis, click here.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 0.25% as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4% The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% The MSCI World Index fell 0.3% Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed The Russell 2000 Index was little changed Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1605 The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3427 The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 148.24 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $119,070.36 Ether rose 1% to $4,259.1 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.28% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.70% Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.57% The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.76% The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.85% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $64.05 a barrel Spot gold fell 1.4% to $3,351.43 an ounce ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Trump Says Gold Imports Won’t Be Tariffed in Reprieve for Market
(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump said Monday imports of gold will not face US tariffs, weighing in after a federal ruling caused chaos and confusion in global bullion markets.
“Gold will not be Tariffed!” Trump posted on social media.
Gold futures traded on New York’s Comex and the global benchmark for spot prices in London were little-changed after Trump’s post. Spot gold pared some losses, though it was still down more than 1.2% on the day.
No formal, updated policy had yet been posted by US agencies as of Monday afternoon.
A White House official suggested last week the administration would issue a new policy clarifying whether gold bars would face import taxes, after US Customs and Border Protection stunned traders by deciding the imports would be subject to duties.
The ruling determined that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to Trump’s country-based tariffs that took effect Aug. 7. The move came in the form of a letter that was issued to a Swiss refiner inquiring about gold’s treatment, then posted publicly on the agency’s website.
Had the decision remained in place, it would have had sweeping implications for bullion around the world and potentially for the smooth functioning of the US futures contract. Gold’s role as a financial asset and global currency sets it apart from other commodities such as copper that have been roiled by tariffs.
Traders, analysts and executives across the industry had understood the bars would be exempt from Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariffs,” including a 39% levy on goods from Switzerland, a major exporter.
The confusion over the CBP letter had caused US gold futures to surge to a record on Friday, and traders said that shipments were freezing up in response to the shock news.
Bullion markets stabilized later Friday when a White House official told Bloomberg in a written statement that the Trump administration intends to post an executive order in the near future to clarify what it called misinformation about tariffing of gold and other specialty products.
The latest statement adds to a tumultuous year for gold, which has soared to unprecedented levels amid strong buying from central banks and as Trump’s trade war drives haven demand.
Earlier this year, physical flows were upended as traders rushed billions of dollars worth of gold and silver into the US as New York prices traded at large premiums in anticipation of potential tariffs. However, that trade came to a crashing halt after the US included gold and silver in its list of exemptions from the tariffs announced in early April.
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Switzerland Today
Dear Swiss Abroad,
You will no doubt remember the catastrophic glacier collapse in Blatten, canton Valais, which almost buried the entire mountain village at the end of May. Today, the Swiss army is concluding its support mission in the Lötschental valley.
The 39% tariff imposed by the United States on imports of goods from Switzerland are not set in stone. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent statements in the international press have raised hopes of a slightly lower rate for Switzerland too.
Enjoy the read!
On May 28, millions of tonnes of rubble and ice buried large parts of the Valais mountain village of Blatten in the Lötschental valley.
Tonight, the army is ending its relief operation in Blatten. After the disaster, those parts of the village that were not buried by the massive landslide were slowly submerged by a lake that formed in the valley. Since June 27, up to 30 members of the Swiss army have been deployed there. They cleared the lake of driftwood and parts of destroyed houses and sorted the salvaged materials for further processing.
“As the lake has a current depth of around 40 centimetres, we can no longer use our boats,” explained Jean-Claude Gagliardi, the lieutenant colonel of Territorial Division 1, in an interview with the Keystone-SDA news agency.
Since the end of May, the volume of lake water has shrunk by around a third, he said. There has been hardly any change in this respect since July. However, work to lower the water level is still continuing. And the danger of another landslide has not yet been averted.
EuroAirport Basel Mulhouse Freiburg no longer wants small aircraft on its runways.
A Swiss professional association warns that the airport is depriving itself of its own basis for training.
Private aviation in Switzerland is under increasing pressure. The most recent example is Basel airport, which wants to “utilise its limited space even more specifically for commercial air traffic in future”, a spokesperson told Swiss public radio SRF at the weekend. The plan is to stop by the end of 2026 at the latest.
According to the “Aero Club”, the umbrella organisation for Swiss light aviation and air sports, this announcement is part of a trend. The argument that light aviation is not economically viable for airports is far too short-sighted, says Matthias Jauslin, president of the association and a Liberal Green parliamentarian.
After all, every pilot starts their career in a small aircraft. “We provide the basic training,” says Jauslin. “Everyone is clamouring for local specialists, and at the same time we are removing the basis for training.”
US tariffs continue to worry Switzerland. But recent media reports cite a possible solution to the dispute by the end of October.
Blick was the first Swiss newspaper to report on recent comments by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which he is said to have made to the Japanese newspaper Nikkei. According to the news report, the US wants to conclude trade talks by the end of October with those countries with which it has not yet reached an agreement.
This includes Switzerland. Exports to the US are currently subject to a tariff of 39%, the highest in Europe. The tariffs imposed unilaterally by the US “should melt away” if the trade imbalances are corrected, Bessent is quoted as saying.
With this goal in mind, Swiss Defence Minister Martin Pfister is “open” to further defence orders in the US, he told the Keystone-SDA news agency at the weekend. The NZZ am Sonntag also reported that the Swiss pharmaceutical giants Roche and Novartis are already expanding their production operations in the US.
“What is the effect of a boycott of US products in Switzerland?” asks the Tages-Anzeiger. The article warns that this symbolic gesture could also affect the country itself.
Coca-Cola is regarded as the symbolic US product par excellence. Not surprisingly, many people no longer want to buy the soft drink and other US products as a form of personal protest.
The Tages-Anzeiger reports that there are lists on internet forums and social media showing how to buy European rather than American products. But what’s the impact of such behaviour?
Consumer boycotts could also have undesirable consequences such as jeopardising local jobs, warns Barbara Antonioli Mantegazzini, professor of public economics and sustainability policies at the University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland. Coca-Cola, for example, buys around 95% of its ingredients in Switzerland, while McDonald’s Switzerland buys 86%.
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News from Switzerland
Reinsurer Swiss Re issues longevity drug guidelines
Reinsurer Swiss Re has introduced guidelines for so-called longevity drugs. Specifically, the guidelines target drugs such as metformin and rapamycin, which were originally developed for other purposes and are used by certain individuals to prolong their lives.
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As the long-term effects are still uncertain, Swiss Re has now introduced guidelines for underwriters to assess longevity drugs that show signs of being used, the company announced on Monday. The adjustment is part of the update to the Swiss Re Life Guide from August 2025.
In addition to life-prolonging drugs, the guide has also been expanded to include an improved calculator for chronic kidney disease and prostate cancer risks, as well as enhanced medical risk assessment tools.
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The Basel researcher whose work triggered a longevity revolution
According to Swiss Re, the Life Guide is used by over 800 insurance companies in more than 100 countries, which use it to conduct around 23 million risk assessment inquiries annually.
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Swiss regulator approves updated Covid-19 vaccine
The Swiss Agency for Therapeutic Products (Swissmedic) has approved an updated COVID-19 vaccine from US-based pharmaceutical company Moderna.
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The vaccine, which comes in a pre-filled syringe for active immunization against coronavirus disease, is intended for people aged 12 and older.
Swissmedic confirmed Moderna’s press release on Monday. According to the company, the approval of the COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax LP.8.1 is based on manufacturing data as well as existing clinical, non-clinical, and real-world data demonstrating the efficacy and safety of Moderna’s mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.
Accordingly, manufacturing data (CMC – Chemistry, Manufacturing and Control) and preclinical data, but no new clinical data, were submitted for the approval of this new variant.
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We select the most relevant news for an international audience and use automatic translation tools to translate them into English. A journalist then reviews the translation for clarity and accuracy before publication.
Providing you with automatically translated news gives us the time to write more in-depth articles. The news stories we select have been written and carefully fact-checked by an external editorial team from news agencies such as Bloomberg or Keystone.
If you have any questions about how we work, write to us at english@swissinfo.ch.
Swiss and UK foreign ministers affirm strong ties during Locarno meeting
The Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom, David Lammy, has made his first official visit to Switzerland. On the fringes of the 78th Locarno Film Festival, he called Switzerland one of the UK’s “closest and most valuable partners”.
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The partnership between the two countries is “a model of diplomacy”, said Lammy. As in the 1920s, when the Locarno Peace Conference took place, this time is also characterised by a “search for clarity, strength and conviction”.
We are in a “post-human” era and society is being recreated, said the Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom in Locarno. “If we act together, we can change the times,” he said with conviction.
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We select the most relevant news for an international audience and use automatic translation tools to translate them into English. A journalist then reviews the translation for clarity and accuracy before publication.
Providing you with automatically translated news gives us the time to write more in-depth articles. The news stories we select have been written and carefully fact-checked by an external editorial team from news agencies such as Bloomberg or Keystone.
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Swiss government warns of severe heatwave
The Swiss government continues to warn of considerable danger due to the heat for the entire week. On Monday, it declared a danger level 3 out of 5 for parts of western Switzerland and Ticino – in other words: considerable danger.
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Affected by the warning are the Lake Geneva region, the Lower Valais, the Three-Lakes region, the Broye in Fribourg and, in the first half of the week, Ticino, according to the federal government’s natural hazards portal. Danger level 3 is declared if the average daily temperature is expected to exceed 25 degrees for more than three consecutive days.
According to MeteoSwiss, the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, maximum temperatures of 32 to 37 degrees with a humidity of 35-50% must be expected in the affected regions below 800 metres above sea level by Sunday evening. The minimum temperatures at night will be between 17 and 23 degrees. There is no or moderate danger for the rest of Switzerland.
However, temperatures could also rise to 35 degrees in the Central Plateau. The private weather service Meteonews is forecasting the highest temperatures for Wednesday. Geneva is then expecting 37 degrees.
High risk of forest fires in Valais
At the same time, there is a high risk of forest fires in parts of Valais. In the Visp Valley, Simplon Nord and the Lötschberg south ramp, the federal government has even declared the highest danger level 5.
At this danger level, there is a risk of very hot fires, large-scale crown fires or flying fires over long distances, according to the federal government’s natural hazards portal. Fires could break out at any time and spread very quickly over long periods of time. For this reason, no fires should be lit outdoors.
In Sion-Sierre, Nicolai, Binn and Saas in Valais, the danger is also high at warning level 4, while in the rest of the canton the forest fire danger is still considerable at level 3. This also applies to other cantons such as Aargau, Basel, parts of the cantons of Bern, Solothurn, Lucerne and Zurich.
This short video looks at the top three climate-related risks in Switzerland in the coming decades.
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We select the most relevant news for an international audience and use automatic translation tools to translate them into English. A journalist then reviews the translation for clarity and accuracy before publication.
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If you have any questions about how we work, write to us at english@swissinfo.ch.
Basel research team discovers mini-factories in cells
Researchers at the University of Basel have discovered tiny “folding factories” in cells. Without them, proteins such as insulin cannot be produced properly.
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Proteins perform a variety of tasks in cells, from transporting substances to digestion. In order for them to fulfil their tasks, they must be correctly folded, as the University of Basel explained in a press release published on its website on Monday.
To fold the proteins, the body has helper proteins known as chaperones. Until now, the researchers assumed that these folding helpers float around individually in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) – the part inside cells where proteins are folded.
However, the researchers have now discovered that the chaperones organise themselves independently and form droplet-like structures known as condensates. According to the university, these condensates correspond to a conveyor belt on which the machines for protein folding are optimally arranged. Proteins are folded more efficiently in them.
A game changer
“This discovery is a real game changer,” said study leader Sebastian Hiller. The research team led by Hiller and first author Anna Leder published their findings in a study published on Monday in the journal Nature Cell Biology.
According to the researchers, the starting point of the study was an observation: mutations in a specific chaperone called PDIA6 were found in several genetic diseases, including diabetes. “We asked ourselves what PDIA6 is actually important for and therefore began to investigate its function in the cell,” says Hiller.
They have now been able to show that PDIA6 ensures that several different chaperones join together. In cells with mutations in the PDIA6 chaperone, these condensates do not form.
In a further experiment, the researchers showed that cells without these mini-factories produce less insulin. This is consistent with the observations that patients with PDIA6 mutations suffer from diabetes, among other things.
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If you have any questions about how we work, write to us at english@swissinfo.ch.
Swiss politician files complaint against farmer after death threats
The increasing number of wolf attacks, particularly in the Jura mountains, continues to exacerbate tensions in the canton of Vaud. State Councillor Vassilis Venizelos has lodged a complaint against a farmer following death threats.
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“The teams in the field are being subjected to pressure and threats,” said the head of the Vaud Department of the Environment, interviewed on Sunday on Swiss public radio RTS. They “come from all sides. The latest came from a farmer who threatened to kill me. A red line has clearly been crossed. A complaint has been lodged”, he continued.
“The aim is to ensure that such events don’t happen again, and to protect my teams too. Of course I can understand this anger, I can understand that some farmers are waiting for more determined action from the state. But certain limits must not be crossed,” continued the Minister.
This announcement comes at a time when many shepherds and farmers are calling for more shots to be fired at the pack in the canton of Vaud. In July alone, a wolf killed at least 18 livestock animals (young cattle, calves, sheep), according to the canton’s latest count.
“The current situation is unacceptable in view of the increasing number of attacks. While politicians dither, wolves continue their carnage, and farmers are paying a high price,” denounced the French-speaking association for the regulation of large predators last week.
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Swiss hospitals faced CHF750 million loss in 2024
The loss-making hospitals in Switzerland posted a loss totalling CHF750 million ($926 million) in 2024. Despite an increase in turnover and fee increases, more than half of the service providers posted negative operating results after deducting depreciation.
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This is the result of a study of 50 hospitals, rehabilitation and psychiatric clinics by the consultancy firm KPMG. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung newspaper first reported on the survey on Monday.
In operational terms, over 80% of the institutions achieved a positive operating result. The growth in turnover was 4.9%. This was due to an above-average increase of 1.5% in inpatient rates. However, cost growth also amounted to 4.9%.
In order to cover their investments, the facilities would have to achieve an EBITDA margin of 10%. KPMG shows that they are not achieving this. The average margin in 2024 was 3.4% after 1.9% in the previous year.
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