Dow Average Hits All-Time Highs Before House Vote: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders drove most stocks higher and bond yields lower as House lawmakers were poised to end a historic government shutdown, which would unlock access to economic data that will be key in shaping the Federal Reserve outlook.

The resolution of the last four US shutdowns has spurred gains in the S&P 500 and most of its sectors, based on the median performance. While about 350 shares in the equity benchmark rose on Wednesday, a slide big tech left the gauge wavering. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed for a fourth straight day, hitting all-time highs. Bitcoin erased its advance.

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Treasuries saw a drop in yields across the curve on bets the Fed will have room to cut rates next month to prop up the jobs market. Traders might get more clues on that front from the raft of central bank officials speaking throughout the day.

House Speaker Mike Johnson said he believes the legislation, a hard-fought compromise forged in the Senate and blessed by President Donald Trump, will pass quickly. But he’ll have to keep his fractious party in line in the face of stiff opposition from House Democrats whose leaders are urging them to vote against the legislation.

With the government shutdown delaying key economic data, the real challenge isn’t the short-term drag on growth — it’s the increasing difficulty for investors and the Fed to gauge the economic outlook, noted Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.

“As data releases resume, the case for a Fed rate cut in December should re-emerge, reinforcing a risk-on backdrop, she said. “This environment favors US equities, particularly big tech and cyclicals poised to benefit from a more accommodative Fed stance.”

The S&P 500 hovered near 6,850. A gauge of tech megacaps lost 1.2%. The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid six basis points to 4.06%. The dollar wavered.

Read: Shutdown’s End Kicks Off Long Process of Rebooting US Government

“With the US government likely to reopen imminently, markets are hoping for the resumption of official data to solidify their assessment of the Fed’s future rate decisions,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We continue to expect the US central bank to cut rates twice more between now and early 2026, providing a favorable backdrop for equities, quality bonds, and gold.”

Despite the added uncertainty around the shutdown, market impact has been limited, according to Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial. Since the shutdown began on Oct. 1, the S&P 500 has actually gained about 2%.

Historically, removing the uncertainty from a government shutdown tends to support equities, he said. Across the last 20 shutdowns since 1976, the S&P 500 has averaged gains of 1.2% and 2.9% in the one- and three-month periods following a budget resolution, compared to 0.8% and 2.4% during all periods over the same timeframe.

“While the markets are pricing the end of the government shutdown, there is an even bigger mountain ahead of us, and that is the resumption of all of the economic data that we have missed,” said Michael Landsberg at Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management. “As the fog lifts, we will see if market positioning has been correct and it is still clear sailing or if there is a big repricing necessary.”

Read: US Wants to Start Easing Flight Cuts Within a Week Post-Shutdown

With earnings season almost completely behind us, the market will be looking for clues about the Fed and how many rate cuts they can expect to see. The market will be looking for signals in the labor and inflation data to extrapolate what direction the Fed will go in and for how long, Landsberg said.

Lack of official economic data and concerns around the level of monetary policy restrictiveness have resulted in muddled expectations around the Fed’s upcoming December decision, noted Oscar Munoz at TD Securities.

With the US Congress set to reopen the government, data will begin to trickle in over the next number of weeks, he said. We will likely have a relatively complete picture of September data before the December Fed decision, but crucial October and November data will be a closer call.

“Our expectation for a soft October employment report and under-control October core CPI inflation should settle the internal debate at the FOMC in favor of an additional 25 basis-point rate cut,” added Munoz. “With that said, the decision is likely to be contentious, with a high possibility of additional hawkish dissents.”

Josh Hirt at Vanguard anticipates that the shutdown’s effects will be temporary and largely reversed when the government reopens. The fourth quarter will experience a drag on growth that should be offset by a boost in the first quarter of 2026.

“In the absence of official data, our analysis suggests that the economy has picked up momentum from earlier in the year and labor market conditions have remained stable,” he said.

Read: Fed’s Bostic Says Inflation Is Still the Clearer and Urgent Risk

“It’s hard enough these days to make sense of one jobs report,” said Hardika Singh at Fundstrat Global Advisors. “Now imagine what happens if we’re bombarded with two of them and a GDP report and a PPI report, and then let’s not forget the small but mighty retail sales report.”

As we shape up to get bombarded with data points, Singh’s take is that we will soon learn that the shutdown intensified the current K-shaped economy, which refers to the widening gap between higher and lower income consumers.

“That’s only going to confuse investors more and more when they try to figure out where the economy stands after over a month of little-to-no insight,” she said.

The imminent end of the government shutdown helps to calm worries about a slowdown, but the prospect that the US will continue to see robust growth is also being spurred by positive reports from the tech industry about the investment outlook in AI infrastructure, according to Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group.

The S&P 500 could reach 7,000 before year-end, propelled by forward earnings, according to Yardeni Research.

The index’s forward price-to-earnings ratio began 2025 at 22.4 and has climbed just 2.7% since then to 23.0, the firm wrote in a Nov. 11 note. An increase to just 23.6 would push the index to 7,000. At the same time, the index’s 16% gain so far is beating the average 10% year-to-date gain over the past 10 years.

“We believe US stocks have further to run and expect the S&P 500 to hit 7,300 by June 2026,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Under-allocated investors should add exposure to our preferred areas, including the transformational innovation opportunities of AI, power and resources, and longevity.”

Corporate Highlights:

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. soared after the chipmaker predicted accelerating sales growth over the next five years, driven by strong demand for its data center products. Delta Air Lines Inc. said mandated flight cuts that snarled US air travel caused a significant financial impact, though the carrier expects a return to normal during the typically bustling Thanksgiving holiday if the government shutdown ends this week. Chevron Corp. chose West Texas as the site of its first project to provide natural gas-fired power to a data center, the beginning of a new line of business for the oil giant to capitalize on the boom in artificial intelligence. Anthropic PBC plans to spend $50 billion to build custom data centers for artificial intelligence work in several US locations, including Texas and New York, the latest expensive pledge for infrastructure to support the AI boom. Alphabet Inc.’s Google faces a fresh competition probe in Europe over the way it ranks news outlets in its search results, the Financial Times reported, citing unnamed officials. Walt Disney Co. is seeking to bring its ESPN sports brand to Asia, stepping up efforts to expand in one of the world’s fastest-growing streaming markets. General Motors Co. has asked thousands of its suppliers to remove Chinese parts from their supply chains as the US carmaker looks to mitigate the risks of geopolitical disruptions, Reuters reported. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order allowing Citigroup Inc. to sell its bank inside the country to Renaissance Capital. Eli Lilly & Co. is dropping CVS Health Corp.’s drug benefit plan for its employees after CVS stopped covering its blockbuster weight-loss drug in favor of a rival medication from Novo Nordisk A/S, according to people familiar with the matter. Waymo will become the first robotaxi provider in the US to offer driverless rides on highways, a milestone that positions it to better compete with ride-hailing companies and traditional taxi services. Walgreens will no longer give many of its retail workers paid vacation time for Thanksgiving, Christmas and other major holidays, as the company looks to cut costs under new owners. Visa Inc. is testing the ability for businesses to send stablecoins directly to consumers’ cryptocurrency wallets for global payouts, targeting growing demand for the fiat-backed digital tokens among gig workers and digital creators in emerging markets. Airbnb Inc. is testing a new service with Instacart that will let guests at some US rentals order groceries through the home-sharing app ahead of and during their stay. Circle Internet Group Inc. slid as concern that declining interest rates will weigh on future returns overshadowed better-than-expected third-quarter revenue and earnings. First Brands Group founder Patrick James regained control of his personal bank accounts after they were frozen last week as part of a lawsuit accusing him of siphoning large sums from the bankrupt auto parts supplier and overseeing schemes that defrauded lenders. Whoop Inc., the maker of popular screen-less fitness bands, is eyeing an initial public offering as soon as in the next two years and is exploring adding glucose monitoring to its health-tracking platform. Clearwater Analytics Holdings Inc. is considering a potential sale after receiving takeover interest, according to people familiar with the matter. Canada’s Baytex Energy Corp. reached a deal to sell its Eagle Ford shale-oil wells and drilling rights in South Texas to an undisclosed buyer for about $2.3 billion. Infineon Technologies AG forecast revenue will return to growth in the 2026 fiscal year, fueled by the global boom in artificial intelligence data centers. Siemens AG is finalizing options to reduce a majority stake in its former medical equipment unit after the €35 billion ($40.5 billion) holding turned into a drag on its share price. Bayer AG posted an improvement in profit, helped by surprising strength at its crop science business and demand for new drugs. Pirelli & C. SpA expects its governance issues with top shareholder Sinochem Holdings Corp. to be worked out, lifting a threat that’s clouded the tire maker’s US prospects, Executive Vice Chairman Marco Tronchetti Provera said. Toyota Motor Corp. confirmed it will plow as much as $10 billion into the US over the next five years to boost its local operations, less than a month after President Donald Trump flagged the Japanese carmaker planned such an investment. Tata Steel Ltd.’s profit more than tripled for the second quarter on the turnaround of its Dutch business and lower coking coal prices. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. offered a rosy outlook for the year ahead, pointing to artificial intelligence development as its most important growth driver. Chinese discount online retailer Vipshop Holdings Ltd. is considering a listing in Hong Kong as soon as next year, according to people familiar with the situation. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 rose 0.1% as of 12:44 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9% The MSCI World Index rose 0.3% Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1.2% The Russell 2000 Index was little changed Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1593 The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3136 The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 154.61 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $101,849.23 Ether rose 0.5% to $3,433 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.06% Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.64% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.40% The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 3.56% The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.65% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.1% to $58.53 a barrel Spot gold rose 1.8% to $4,203.03 an ounce ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.