Swiss economists lower growth forecast for 2026

Economists have lowered their predictions for economic growth in 2026. Keystone-SDA

Experts believe that economic development in Switzerland will be weaker in 2026 than the forecasts made three months ago. They have also lowered their predictions for the current year.

+ Get the most important news from Switzerland in your inbox

The economists surveyed as part of the KOF Consensus Forecast now expect real gross domestic product (GDP, adjusted for sporting events) to grow by 1.3% on average in 2025 and 2026. The forecast for unadjusted GDP growth is 1.1% for this year and 1.6% for 2026, the Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) said on Monday.

The growth prospects for both years are slightly weaker than recent forecasts. In the March survey, the economists still expected growth of 1.4% in 2025 after adjustment for sport and 1.2% unadjusted growth.

For 2026, their forecast was +1.6% for sports-adjusted GDP and +1.8% for unadjusted GDP.

The lower growth predictions for 2026 are mainly due to lower estimates for investments. The economists surveyed are still forecasting +1.6% for fixed asset investments in 2026, after estimating +2.0% in March.

And for equipment investment, they still expect +1.6% (+2.1%) for the coming year. By contrast, expectations for construction investment are unchanged (+1.7%).

Lower inflation rate expected

With regard to inflation, respondents expect lower figures than in March. The expected inflation rate for the current year is still 0.2%, down from 0.5% previously, while it has been adjusted to 0.6% for 2026 from 0.8% previously.

The outlook for the situation on the German labour market has also deteriorated further. The consensus value for the unemployment rate is now 2.9% for 2025 after 2.8% in the March survey and 3.0% (2.8%) for 2026.

The survey participants were also asked for their growth predictions for the corresponding values in five years’ time. Here, too, the economists have become more pessimistic.

They now estimate adjusted growth of 1.5% (+1.6%) and unadjusted growth of 1.6% (+1.7%). The long-term inflation expectations remain unchanged at +1.0%, while those for the unemployment rate are also unchanged at 2.8%.

A total of 15 economists took part in the KOF Consensus Forecast. The survey was conducted from June 2-18, 2025.

Translated from German with DeepL/sb

How we work

We select the most relevant news for an international audience and use automatic translation tools to translate them into English. A journalist then reviews the translation for clarity and accuracy before publication.  

Providing you with automatically translated news gives us the time to write more in-depth articles. The news stories we select have been written and carefully fact-checked by an external editorial team from news agencies such as Bloomberg or Keystone.

If you have any questions about how we work, write to us at [e-mail].