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Leading institute predicts Swiss recession next year

The Créa Institute predicts a dramatic decline in US consumer confidence (www.hec.unil.ch/crea/) swissinfo.ch

The Swiss economy is set to enter a recession early next year as the global economic slowdown deepens following last month's attacks on the United States.

This content was published on October 17, 2001 - 16:58

The Lausanne-based Créa Institute says in its latest report that Swiss growth will be 0 per cent in the fourth quarter and minus 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2002.

The institute then expects a slow recovery with growth for 2002 as a whole expected to be 1.5 per cent. The growth forecast for the current year is 1.2 per cent. Last year's growth rate was 3 per cent.

Créa's forecast is based on the assumption that the US-led reprisals on Afghanistan will not last long. It says the global economy should pick up during the second quarter of next year.

Créa expects consumer confidence in the United States to severely decline in the wake of last month's attacks, finally pushing the economy into recession.

The institute expects zero rates of growth in the US for the next two quarters.

The level of US investment is also expected to fall from 11.4 per cent in 2000 to zero in 2001 and 1.2 per cent in 2002.

swissinfo with agencies

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