Swiss central bank to first cut rates in September, survey shows

Keeping inflation in check: the Swiss National Bank in Bern. Keystone / Peter Klaunzer

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will lower interest rates for the first time in September 2024 – one of just two just cuts predicted for next year – according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. 

The SNB will hold borrowing costs at 1.75% until that initial quarter-point move, to 1.5%, the December 1-7 poll showed. Two further reductions of 25 basis points are seen in December 2024 and March 2025.

Some economists see the SNB acting sooner. UBS analysts said last week that they expect a move to come as early as June. For BlackRock’s Martin Lueck, March is even a possibility.

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With investors focused on global interest-rate cuts, SNB President Thomas Jordan is likely to be asked about the prospect and a possible timeline when he speaks to reporters on Thursday after his institution’s final policy decision of the year. 

Swiss inflation has kept within the central bank’s target range of between 0 and 2% since June and the Bloomberg survey shows that economists see it staying there through 2024.

That’s better than the SNB’s more recent estimate, which predicts consumer-price growth will run above that level next year. Still, that forecast was made three months ago, suggesting new projections due Thursday might be lower.