Experts predict economy rise but no more jobs

Economic growth will not necessarily help jobseekers Keystone

The Swiss economy is set to grow by two per cent next year, say experts at Lausanne University's Créa Institute.

Export trade will compensate for a relatively weak domestic demand. But they warned that the effects of any improvement would only be seen on the employment market in 2007.

The institute said on Thursday that it expected a rise of 1.5 per cent in gross domestic product (GDP) for 2005. This should rise to two per cent in 2006 and then 2.3 per cent by 2007.

Economists said that economic recovery should set in across the European Union next year. The situation should remain steady in the United States and in Asia.

The price of petrol is expected to stay high over the coming months, before dropping at the end of this year.

Energy

“Consumers seem to be less worried about the price of energy than by the situation on the job market where no improvement is in sight,” said Créa.

Household consumption is expected to rise in 2006 following a slight improvement in salaries and in the economy this year, it added.

Exports are predicted to maintain high levels this year and to rise in 2006 and 2007, compensating for weak domestic demand.

The economists were less upbeat about the prospects on the job market. Employers have not started hiring, despite the good prospects for economic growth, said Créa.

The institute said it did not expect any improvement on the job front until 2007, when the effects of the improved economic situation should be felt. It predicted a jobless rate of 3.5 per cent for 2006 and 3.6 per cent for 2007.

Prices and inflation are slated to remain stable.

Optimistic

Créa’s predictions are the latest in a series of recent economic forecasts for the Swiss economy and are slightly more optimistic than earlier studies.

The Basel Economics (BAK) analysis centre said on Tuesday that GDP would increase by 1.5 per cent in 2006.

The unemployment rate would also fall, from 3.8 to 3.6 per cent, pushing the economy to perform better. BAK was counting on the domestic market becoming more dynamic next year.

Earlier this month the Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) revised downwards its growth forecast for next year from 2.1 to 1.5 per cent. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) has also predicted growth of 1.5 per cent.

swissinfo with agencies

Key facts

The Créa Institute is attached to the School of Higher Business Studies at Lausanne University.
It was founded in 1973.
Its principal objective is to supply the private and public sectors in Switzerland and abroad with economic analysis and macroeconomic forecasts.

In brief

Créa predicts a rise in GDP in Switzerland of 2% for 2006.

It is more optimistic than the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco), Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) and the Basel Economics (BAK) analysis centre which expect an improvement of 1.5%.

Créa does not expect the job situation to improve before 2007 when the effects of the improved economy will be felt.