Swiss pension forecast fiasco caused by faulty methodology

No miscalculation with incorrect AHV financial perspective Keystone-SDA

Incorrect forecasting of Swiss pension expenditure resulted from faulty methodology rather than classic miscalculations, an investigation has found. Voters were presented with the incorrect financial outlook ahead of referendum votes on pension reform.

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The interior ministry probe highlighted two errors in the calculation model that led to implausible 10-year pension financing forecasts.  

+ How faulty figures undermine Swiss democracy

This information could be found both in the voting documents for September 2022 and in those for the vote on the 13th AHV pension on March 3 of this year.

At the beginning of August, Interior Minister Elisabeth Baume-Schneider ordered an administrative investigation to determine the cause of the discrepancies in the pension financial forecasts.

Stéphane Rossini, head of the Swiss social insurance office, announced his resignation at the end of June 2025.

Translated from German by DeepL/mga

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