Novartis forecasts profit gains despite copycat competition

Novartis says new therapies will drive growth Keystone / Georgios Kefalas

Swiss pharmaceutical heavyweight Novartis said profit will rise this year as new medicines help offset competition from copycats of its best-selling drug.

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Core operating profit will likely grow by a high single- to a low double-digit percentage, outpacing sales, the Swiss drugmaker said Friday. 

Novartis is facing patent expiries for three key drugs, with top-selling heart medicine Entresto expected to face generic competitors in the US mid-year. The drugmaker says its newer therapies will continue to drive growth. 

The patent expiries are a test of CEO Vas Narasimhan’s years-long overhaul of the company, with its focus narrowed to specific types of diseases. Last year Narasimhan issued what many investors saw as a cautious forecast at the beginning of the year, then repeatedly raised it in successive quarters. 

Sales will probably increase at a mid- to high-single digit pace this year, Novartis said. The drugmaker reported a 7% increase in fourth-quarter net income to $2.8 billion. 

Besides Entresto, two of Novartis’s top 20 drugs, Tasigna for leukemia and Promacta for blood clotting, will face generics in the US. But they have successors: the company anticipates more than 15 regulatory submissions or approvals for key drugs this year. 

Novartis shares have risen about 1% in the past 12 months, less than those of cross-town rival Roche. Roche on Thursday said profit excluding some items would probably grow in the high single-digit range at constant currencies this year.

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