EU keeps distant eye on Schengen vote

The EU has largely kept its face hidden during the Schengen campaign Keystone

The European Union is keeping a distant eye on Switzerland’s upcoming nationwide vote on the Schengen/Dublin treaties.

But observers say this does not mean that Brussels is ignoring the Swiss political debate about how to forge closer ties with the EU.

Voters go to the polls on Sunday to decide whether to sign up to the Schengen/Dublin accords governing closer cooperation on crime-fighting and asylum.

Opponents of the treaties warn that nothing less than Swiss sovereignty is at risk, while supporters argue that the country cannot afford to remain isolated in the middle of Europe.

Brussels has largely stayed out of the political debate in Switzerland, but last week EU Commissioner Franco Frattini used an interview with Swiss television to plead for a “yes” to Schengen/Dublin.

Frattini, who holds the security and justice portfolio, said he understood the “concerns” of those who fear a loss of sovereignty.

“But this is just not going to happen,” he said, “[because] as a Schengen member Switzerland would be able refuse to implement any decisions it does not agree with.”

Controversy

The Schengen/Dublin agreements are the most controversial element of a second set of bilateral accords with the EU on a wide range of issues, including the taxation of savings and the fight against customs fraud.

The package of treaties is the result of years of tortuous negotiations, which saw significant concessions from both sides.

Karin Gilland Lutz, a professor at Bern University’s Institute of Political Science, said rejection of Schengen/Dublin would be a slap in the face for the EU.

“If voters reject the Schengen/Dublin agreements, the initial response from political leaders within the EU is likely to be quite negative,” Lutz told swissinfo.

“But quite quickly it would be business as usual again… because neither party has any interest in letting the relationship deteriorate.”

Upcoming ballot

Some commentators argue that the Schengen vote is less important than an upcoming ballot in September on whether Switzerland should extend an existing accord governing the free movement of people to include citizens from the ten new EU member states.

Diana Wallis, head of the European Parliament’s delegation responsible for relations with Switzerland, said rejection of that treaty could deal an irreparable blow to Swiss-EU ties.

“The EU isn’t really bothered about whether Switzerland wants to belong to Schengen/Dublin,” she said.

“But the vote in September is much more crucial… in the sense that if free movement for citizens of the new EU member states is rejected, there is every possibility that the whole framework of the bilateral accords could collapse.”

Brussels has made it clear to Switzerland that it would not accept a two-tier system whereby some of its member states are granted access to the Swiss labour market and others are shut out from it.

High price?

Wallis maintains that the Swiss government will pay a high price if voters decide not to extend the accord to citizens from countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary.

The treaty forms part of a first set of Swiss-EU accords which came into force in 2002.

If its extension to include the newly expanded EU is turned down, she believes both the first and second series of accords could become null and void.

“I’m hoping we won’t have to contemplate this scenario, but you have to accept that this is what the outcome is likely to be,” said Wallis, though she concedes that Swiss and EU diplomats would probably make a face-saving attempt to pick up the pieces.

“We can assume that both sides will sit round a table, look at one another and work out how to proceed. But strictly speaking, a ‘no’ vote would spell the end of the bilateral process as we know it.”

Uncertain future

The EU, which is currently preoccupied with saving its fledgling constitution, has so far stayed out of the domestic debate on Schengen/Dublin and the free movement of people.

But Lutz believes “no” votes in June and September could turn indifference into a complete lack of interest in developing ties with Switzerland.

“One might foresee a weakened interest on the part of the EU in long and complicated negotiations with Switzerland, when time and again the deals are scuppered at the ballot box.”

She adds that any future attempts to restart talks with Brussels are likely to be given the cold shoulder.

“One possible result of becoming known as the eternal naysayer is that the EU’s interest in Switzerland could simply dwindle,” she said.

“And that would certainly not enhance the country’s strategic ability to influence the world around it.”

swissinfo, Ramsey Zarifeh

In brief

A first set of bilateral accords with the EU came into effect in June 2002.

The second set of treaties, which includes the Schengen/Dublin accords, was signed last year.

This Sunday’s nationwide vote on Schengen/Dublin will be followed in September by a ballot on a treaty governing the free movement of people.