Rollercoaster cocoa prices remain high
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Rollercoaster cocoa prices remain high
The price of cocoa has been on a rollercoaster over the past two years. While at the end of 2024 it was selling at $12,000 (CHF9,650) per tonne, it has recently dropped to $6,000. On the shelves of supermarkets, however, no difference can be seen.
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Variations in cocoa prices are fundamentally caused by weather conditions. Bad weather and disease have led to difficult harvests, with warehouses almost empty, some of them at their lowest levels in 40 years. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel.
“Local production is recovering thanks to better weather in West Africa,” explained Arthur Jurus, investment director of the private bank Oddo BHF Suisse. Especially in Ghana and Ivory Coast, countries responsible for around 70% of the world’s cocoa production, the 2025/26 season is expected to be very positive.
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Added to this is the guarantee of higher prices for local farmers, which encourages production, and the decrease in speculation, thanks to the extreme price variations.
The same dynamics have also been described by Unicredit. In addition, a reforestation programme supported by the governments of Ghana and Ivory Coast has led to better forecasts for the next harvest season.
Chocolate remains expensive
But why is the fall in the price of cocoa not being reflected on supermarket shelves? In some ways, experts explain, the same principle applies as in petrol stations: the drop in the cost of oil does not immediately coincide with a drop in what you pay for a full tank.
Even with cocoa, the price of chocolate falls with a delay. The approaching Christmas holidays presumably do not help this process.
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On top of all this, the extreme price increase has changed the chocolate market profoundly. The general demand for cocoa products has decreased, precisely because customers in the so-called economic mass segments are more sensitive to outlay. The winners, at the end of the day, are the premium products.
It should also not be forgotten that the price of cocoa has fallen, but is still well above the levels of previous years. At the beginning of 2024, a tonne of this product cost about 40% less than today.
According to Jurus, due to various structural factors, prices will probably no longer fall to the levels of the beginning of 2024, also due to climate change, which makes harvests more uncertain. In addition, companies also face high expenses for other components such as sugar, packaging and logistics. We will therefore have to prepare ourselves for more festivities with rather expensive chocolate Santas.
Translated from Italian by DeepL/ts
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