UBS economists more confident about Swiss economy in 2025
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UBS economists more confident about Swiss economy in 2025
UBS economists have revised upwards their estimates of Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the current year. However, they are more pessimistic for next year, due to the spectre of US tariffs.
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Experts are expecting GDP growth adjusted for sporting events to reach 1.3% in 2025, compared with 1.0% previously, according to a statement from the banking giant published on Monday.
Wealth creation was buoyed by a solid first three months. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) reported on Monday morning that Swiss GDP rose by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter between January and March, excluding the impact of sporting events, compared with an initial estimate of 0.7%.
But the much-vaunted “Liberation Day” proclaimed by US President Donald Trump at the beginning of April could change all that. “Over the next few quarters, US customs duties are likely to have a negative impact on exports, notably due to the offsetting of anticipated effects, and GDP is therefore likely to stagnate,” they point out. They do not expect a return to growth until next year.
+ Switzerland and US agree to accelerate tariff talks
For 2026, adjusted GDP growth is calculated at around 1%, compared with 1.2% so far.
The UBS economists are warning of a harsher scenario. If trade relations do not stabilise over the next few months, as hoped, “a global recession cannot be ruled out”. The Swiss economy would not escape this. In that case, the contribution of foreign trade would be clearly negative.
+ What is a tariff? A quick guide
Translated from French by DeepL/ts
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