S&P 500 Rally Hits a Wall Near Its All-Time Highs: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s rally is showing some signs of fatigue on speculation stocks have run too far amid economic and geopolitical risks. Longer-term Treasuries underperformed. Oil bounced from its biggest two-day plunge since 2022. The dollar fell to a three-year low.

Just a few points away from its all-time high, the S&P 500 wavered. The Nasdaq 100 edged up, with Nvidia Corp. hitting a record. In late hours, Micron Technology Inc. gave an upbeat forecast. The Russell 2000 lost 1.2%. The yield gap between 30-year and five-year bonds is near levels last seen in 2021. The curve steepening is a wager the Federal Reserve will cut rates eventually while concern about debt issuance will pressure longer-term maturities.

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Traders kept a close eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s second day of testimony on Capitol Hill after Fed officials left rates steady last week. The Fed chief said the US central bank is still struggling to determine the impact of tariffs on consumer prices. He also noted the US has the strongest economy in the world, and it makes sense to move slowly in times of uncertainty.

“If it were not for the uncertainty created by shifting trade policy, the Fed may have been able to cut interest rates this summer,” said Carol Schleif at BMO Private Wealth. “The Fed’s pause on interest-rate cuts is tariff induced, and not necessarily reflective of economic progress. We expect one to two cuts in 2025, starting most likely in September.”

Few times in history has the US market grappled with as many headwinds as it’s faced in 2025: a new president rejiggering the global order, sweeping tariffs and a bout of uncertainty stemming from Middle East headlines. While stocks have still prevailed against all odds, the higher the S&P 500 goes, the louder the concern that its multiples are starting to look frothy.

“No market moves in a straight line,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak. “The thought that it might have to take a short-term breather is not something that will create any serious nervousness in the marketplace in and by itself.”

On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump said the US would hold a meeting with Iran next week but cast doubt on the need for a diplomatic agreement on the country’s nuclear program, citing the damage that American bombing had done to key sites.

His comments came on day two of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, ending 12 days of conflict that threatened to escalate into a wider regional war and upend energy markets.

“The markets are pricing in that the worst of the Iran/Israel conflict is behind us,” said Schleif. “Tariffs, trade, tax, inflation, employment and interest rates have a lot more sway on stocks right now.”

Meantime, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are doubling down on their view that the US stock market is on track for a fresh record this year as the economy and consumers remain resilient despite policy uncertainty.

Absent any political or policy shocks, “we believe the path of least resistance to new highs will be supported by technology/artificial intelligence-led strong fundamentals, a steady bid from systematic strategies, and flows from active investors on dips,” strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote.

As stocks hover near all-time highs, a senior Goldman Sachs Group Inc. trader warned that there are valid reasons to meet the latest gains with caution. This is especially true of lower-quality parts of the market, where shares are being driven higher by short sellers forced to cover their positions, Louis Miller wrote.

“We flagged two weeks ago that the short squeeze the market was facing could provide an opportunity to press shorts lower, and we think that time is getting closer,” he wrote.

At Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson says he’s impressed by the overall resilience equity markets have displayed in the first two quarters of the year. 

“The turbulent backdrop of tariff uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, a US debt downgrade, and mounting national debt has been a stiff headwind for investors,” he noted. “However, looking forward to the second half of the year, we believe the technical setup remains constructive and the proverbial ‘glass half-full’ based on the weight of the technical evidence.”

In fact, the Nasdaq 100 not only closed at its first record since February on Tuesday, but formed a “golden cross” in the process. That’s when the 50-day moving average breaks above the 200-day moving average.

“Golden crosses are not something that most technicians highlight very often, but it is still a positive signal for momentum,” said Maley at Miller Tabak.

The last two times the tech-heavy gauge experienced a “golden cross,” the gauge saw big rallies before seeing another correction, he noted.

Corporate Highlights:

• FedEx Corp. warned that its profit would be worse than expected this quarter and declined to offer guidance for the rest of the year.
• Cheerios maker General Mills Inc. offered an outlook for the fiscal year ahead that fell below investors’ expectations.
• The artificial-intelligence tailwinds that have driven the shares of Nvidia Corp. sharply higher the past few years show no signs of abating, and could eventually push the chipmaker’s value to a market-topping $6 trillion, according to Loop Capital.
• Apple Inc. is poised to offer further App Store changes to appease European Union antitrust watchdogs who issued an ultimatum after doling out a €500 million ($580 million) fine.
• Alphabet Inc.’s Google is adding an artificial intelligence coding assistant to to ease the work of developers, aiming to catch up with rival products such as OpenAI’s Codex and Anthropic’s Claude Code.
• Bumble Inc. is cutting about one-third of its staff, months after founder Whitney Wolfe Herd returned as chief executive officer to overhaul the struggling dating app.
• Yum! Brands Inc., the operator of chains as KFC and Taco Bell, was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
• Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s push to eliminate synthetic dyes from the US food supply gained more steam on Wednesday with Nestlé SA and Conagra Brands Inc. announcing separately that they will cut the additives in the future.
• Hims & Hers Health Inc. won’t back down from selling cheap weight-loss shots, its chief executive officer said one day after Novo Nordisk A/S abruptly ended its distribution partnership.
• Deutsche Boerse AG has added more banks to a potential $1 billion initial public offering of its governance data and analytics unit ISS Stoxx, according to people familiar with the matter, as it weighs whether to list a stake held by a private equity firm or buy it back.
• Shell Plc denied a Wall Street Journal report that it is in active talks about acquiring its London-based oil rival BP Plc.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
• The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%
• The MSCI World Index fell 0.1%
• Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
• The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.2%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
• The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1659
• The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3666
• The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 145.24 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin rose 1.5% to $107,778.73
• Ether fell 0.7% to $2,432.97

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.28%
• Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.56%
• Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.48%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $65.22 a barrel
• Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,333.87 an ounce

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