Experts mull Afghan elections and way forward
President Hamid Karzai looks poised to win the Afghanistan presidential vote, but his re-election is unlikely to improve how the country is run, say Swiss experts.
Millions of Afghans are expected to vote on Thursday for the president and for provincial councils amid threats from the Taliban that they will disrupt the poll.
On Tuesday a suicide car bomber killed at least eight people and injured about 50 more in Kabul and earlier a Taliban rocket struck the grounds of the presidential palace.
Karzai is firm favourite to win the election, but not with the outright majority needed to avoid a run-off – set for October 1 – against his chief challenger, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah.
Two separate polls, commissioned by the US government and published last week, gave Karzai 45 per cent and Abdullah 25 per cent.
Alliances with regional powerbrokers and his origins as a Pashtun, the largest Afghan ethnic community, have put Karzai in a strong position despite widespread public frustrations with his government.
“It’s true that it looks like Karzai will be re-elected, although his record is extremely weak – and that’s an understatement. We shouldn’t expect too much of these elections,” Gilbert Etienne, a Swiss expert on Afghanistan, told swissinfo.ch.
Yet the election result remains uncertain, dogged by allegations of poor process and corruption, and set against a backdrop of violence that could harm Karzai’s first-round chances.
The Taliban have warned Afghans not to cast ballots, saying that voters might be the victims of attacks on polling sites.
Election officials say around ten per cent of the 7,000 polling stations may remain closed due to security concerns. But the United States doubt whether attacks will reach a level that will wreck the poll.
Albert Stahel, a professor at Zurich University, agreed: “The Taliban can disrupt the vote in some parts but not all.”
Corruption and warlords
Since his rise to power in 2001, Karzai’s reputation has altered dramatically. Western critics blame him for weak leadership, making deals with warlords, tolerating drug smugglers and ignoring corruption that has fed the Taliban insurgency. Security in parts of Afghanistan has deteriorated badly since 2004 despite the arrival of foreign troops.
If Karzai is re-elected there will be few changes, the Zurich University professor believes.
“It will be the same as before with lots of corruption, people from former times in the cabinet and nothing getting solved. The US will build up the army, but there are no clear solutions for society’s problems,” he stated.
Etienne agreed: “Karzai was in a difficult position, but it’s true that he’s done very little… and nothing much will change.”
“Miserable” reconstruction effort
While blame lies at the door of the Afghan government, western countries also have a lot to answer for in the “miserable” reconstruction effort, where money has not been properly prioritised on agriculture, irrigation, roads and electricity, he adds.
“There were 1,000 NGOs doing all kinds of projects. American NGOs teaching Afghan women how to use lipstick while there was no electricity in Kabul,” said Etienne.
Stahel also criticises the reconstruction strategy.
“In the interior of the country there are no roads or electricity, and there is a big problem with hospitals,” he lamented.
All is not lost, he adds, but things need to change with more resources for the provinces, a central focal point to oversee reconstruction efforts, and a re-shaping of the Afghan army so that it protects the country rather than just fights the Taliban.
“A war worth fighting”
Thursday’s election is also a test for US President Barack Obama and his strategy of escalating the eight-year-old war in an effort to reverse recent Taliban gains.
In a speech on Monday Obama called the Afghan conflict “a war worth fighting”.
More than 30,000 extra US troops have arrived in Afghanistan this year, raising the number of Western troops above 100,000 for the first time, including 62,000 Americans.
US and British forces have launched major offensives, taking unprecedented casualties – more Western troops have died in Afghanistan since March than in the entire period from 2001-2004.
The troops will maintain outer-perimeter security during the election, with Afghan soldiers and police guarding towns and polling stations. The Nato-led Western force said on Tuesday it would refrain from conducting offensive operations on election day.
Simon Bradley, swissinfo.ch
As of August 17, 2009, the total number of foreign military deaths as a result of violence or accidents in Afghanistan since 2001: 1,319, of which US (782), Britain (204), Canada (128), Germany (35), France (29), Denmark (25), Spain (25), Netherlands (19), Italy (15), other nations (57).
The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) recorded 1,013 Afghan civilian deaths for the first half of 2009. Sixty per cent of the deaths were caused by anti-government elements and 30 per cent by international-led military forces.
The Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) has been in Afghanistan since 1977.
Since 2004, the Swiss programme has been gradually changed into a long-term programme aimed at development and reconstruction.
Its current activities are aimed at encouraging good governance, respect of human rights and improving the standard of living of the poorest groups in the community.
Since 2001, Switzerland has allocated about SFr21 million ($19.3 million) a year to Afghanistan in development aid.
Until the end of February 2008, between two and four senior Swiss army officers took part in the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan over a period of four years. Since their withdrawal, Switzerland’s involvement has focused on civilian activities.
Switzerland has set aside SFr2 million for the Afghanistan elections and will deploy an election observer for a short period
Afghanistan goes to the polls on August 20 for presidential and provincial elections.
President Hamid Karzai is favourite to win against leading challengers Abdullah Abdullah, Ramazan Bashardost and Ashraf Ghani. But unless he secures more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round he faces a run-off against the second-placed candidate.
Preliminary results will be announced on September 3 and final results two weeks later. A possible runoff will be held on October 1.
The Afghan Independent Election Commission estimates there are around 15 million eligible voters out of a population of around 33 million.
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