From Visas to Jets, US and China Are Finding New Trade Leverage

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Donald Trump brought many of the same grievances to his second trade war against China, but the economic battleground that’s emerged since then is making it harder to avoid a rupture this time around.

While tariffs kicked off the dispute, it’s the new trade weapons being unsheathed by both sides that have come to define the latest standoff. And if the damage done so far is any indication, the scars will prove more enduring — no matter the outcome of trade talks in London that will continue into a second day on Tuesday.

From higher education to jet engines, the scope of connections between the world’s two biggest economies that they are weaponizing — or threatening to use as leverage in negotiations — is also much broader than last time. That could also make a deal more complex to navigate.

“The US side has bundled together too many problems with the trade and economic agenda,” said Sun Chenghao, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing. “I don’t believe that achieving a comprehensive package agreement through just one or two rounds of dialogue is realistic.”

Here are all the ways the US and China are trying to gain leverage:

US Visas

One tool the US has wielded this time is the threat of pulling the visas of the 270,000 Chinese students studying in the US. Late last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Chinese students’ visas would be “aggressively” revoked, including for people with connections to the Communist Party or studying in critical fields. Future applications from China and Hong Kong will also face heightened scrutiny, he said.

Following the call with President Xi Jinping last week, Trump then said it would an “honor” to have Chinese students in the US, although it’s far from clear what that will mean in practice. 

Jet Engines, Chip Design Software

Before Trump returned to the Oval Office last January, the US had already imposed increasingly wide-ranging sanctions on various Chinese people and companies. It was also stepping up its bans on exports of both semiconductors and the tools to make them, including by pressuring allies such as Japan and the Netherlands to do the same.   

Building on those controls, the US Commerce Department rolled out a recent spate of measures targeting chip design software, jet engine parts, chemicals and nuclear materials, even as the details aren’t all public. The department also stated that using a new chip made by Huawei anywhere in the world could violate US export controls, although it subsequently changed that language. 

The Trump administration expects that “after the handshake” in London, “any export controls from the US will be eased and the rare earths will be released in volume” by China, Kevin Hassett, head of the White House’s National Economic Council, told CNBC Monday.

Hassett’s comments from Washington were the clearest signal yet that the US is willing to offer such a concession, though he added that the US would stop short of including the most sophisticated chips made by Nvidia Corp. used to power artificial intelligence.

Ethane

The US administration is increasing barriers for exporters to sell the chemical ethane to China, in what looks to be an attempt to leverage a product where the US is as dominant as China is in rare earths. 

Thanks to the shale gas revolution, the US is the largest producer of ethane, which is used for making some plastics. China is its top customer, with US supply making up over 99% of the ethane it bought in the first four months of this year.

It was so important that China quietly exempted ethane from the tariffs announced earlier this year. Even so, the Commerce Department has already indicated it plans to deny permission to export to at least one firm. That could make life harder for the vast constellation of plants along the eastern seaboard that Chinese firms built to take advantage of cheap US gas. 

Taiwan Arms Sales

Another area where the US might put pressure on China is by stepping up sales of arms to Taiwan, which is claimed by Beijing. Underscoring the prominence of the issue is the specific mention of Taiwan in the call between Trump and Xi, according to the Chinese readout afterward. 

Two US officials familiar with the matter said they expect US approvals for arms sales to Taipei over the next four years to surpass those in Trump’s first term, according to a Reuters report late last month. Those sales could further inflame tensions between the US and China. 

Trump’s first term was marked by 22 military sales notifications for Taiwan valued at almost $19 billion, including backlogged cases and funding for maintenance of existing systems, according to a 2024 report from the Cato Institute, compared with about $8.7 billion during the Biden administration.

Chinese Export Controls 

Beijing has learned from the effectiveness of US export controls, setting up its own system to limit and curb sales of “dual-use goods” that can have both civilian and military applications. 

That effort intensified this year, with Beijing ordering exporters to start applying for licenses to ship seven different rare earth elements and products made from them, including high performance permanent magnets that are essential for production of cars and tech products. 

Chinese state media this week denied that the new controls were an attempt to use China’s dominance in the element’s production as leverage against the US. But the measures were announced at the same time as a package of sanctions aimed at the US in response to tariffs. 

China is also using the same licensing regime for other key minerals such as gallium, germanium and antimony, widening that to others including bismuth, tungsten and some rare earths earlier this year. Some exports fell after licensing was required and eventually grew again but have not reached levels seen before they were added to the control list.

After the call with Xi, Trump said he expected no problems with the supply of magnets. China does seem to be issuing licenses faster, although there is no indication that it will remove the requirement to get a license, meaning it could slow or stop issuing them again at any time. 

Jet Deliveries

One new tool that Beijing used was to order a halt to deliveries of Boeing Co. jets, prompting at least one Chinese airliner to return a plane. While the ban was lifted later, with the company sending a 737 Max jet to China last week, the tensions have left the first major aircraft order from China since 2017 in limbo. 

Boeing had expected to deliver another 50 planes to China when the latest trade spat erupted in April, with Beijing countering Trump’s new levies by hiking tariffs that priced the US-made jets out of the market for Chinese carriers.

–With assistance from Colum Murphy.

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