Experts pessimistic about the Swiss economic outlook
Select your language
Generated with artificial intelligence.
Listening: Experts pessimistic about the Swiss economic outlook
According to financial analysts and economists, the outlook for the Swiss economy remains bleak. Although they assessed the outlook for the Swiss economy in October as slightly better than a month ago, the index calculated by the major bank UBS remains in the red.
The UBS CFA indicator, which summarises the expectations of financial analysts and economists regarding the economy over the next six months, rose by 1.1 points to -7.7 points in October compared to the previous month. However, it remains in negative territory for the fifth month in a row, UBS explained in a press release on Wednesday.
The survey therefore continues to indicate a slightly negative outlook for the Swiss economy over the next six months, according to UBS. A deterioration in the economic situation is also expected in the eurozone and the US. However, the assessment of the current situation in the US is much more positive, which relativises the expected slowdown there.
The Chinese economy, on the other hand, appears in a new light: analysts have raised their previously pessimistic growth outlook for China. In UBS’s judgement, this is probably due to the comprehensive economic stimulus package announced by the central bank and the government.
However, if Donald Trump is elected US president, Chinese exports to the US could face significantly higher tariffs, UBS experts warn. This could have a negative impact on the country’s growth outlook.
Interest rates expected to fall
Interest rate expectations have also fallen. For Switzerland, for example, a majority of participants in the survey now expect inflation to fall below the 1% mark in 2025. Short-term interest rates in the eurozone and the US will also fall according to 85% of the analysts surveyed.
However, opinions are divided when it comes to exchange rates. A third of analysts expect the Swiss franc to appreciate against both the euro and the US dollar. This is less than in September. Conversely, around 20% expected the Swiss franc to depreciate against both currencies.
The survey was conducted between September 17-24 and 26 analysts from the Swiss financial sector took part.
Translated from German by DeepL/jdp
This news story has been written and carefully fact-checked by an external editorial team. At SWI swissinfo.ch we select the most relevant news for an international audience and use automatic translation tools such as DeepL to translate it into English. Providing you with automatically translated news gives us the time to write more in-depth articles.
If you want to know more about how we work, have a look here, if you want to learn more about how we use technology, click here, and if you have feedback on this news story please write to english@swissinfo.ch.
Popular Stories
More
Culture
Documentary portrays Swiss teenagers forced to return to parents’ homeland
Demonstrators rally in support of Swiss steelworks Gerlafingen
This content was published on
Around 1,000 people demonstrated in front of the Stahl Gerlafingen steel plant on Saturday to demand the preservation of the site.
Basel autumn fair attracted over 1 million visitors
This content was published on
The Basel autumn fair, or Herbstmesse, saw record attendance, with more than a million visitors, city authorities said on Saturday.
Swiss Federal Railways want direct trains between Zurich and Rome
This content was published on
In addition to the new connections to Italy announced on Friday, the Swiss Federal Railways would like to see a direct link between Zurich and Rome.
Swiss village Brienz to be evacuated due to rockslide risk
This content was published on
Local authorities announced that up to 1.2 million cubic metres of rock could move towards the mountain village of Brienz. The municipality is preparing a preventive evacuation.
Swiss businesses losing billions due to Temu and Shein
This content was published on
Swiss businesses are losing billions of francs a year as a result of the spread of Chinese online platforms Temu and Shein, says the director of the federation of Swiss retailers.
Direct trains to run from Zurich to Florence and Livorno
This content was published on
The Swiss Federal Railways and Trenitalia will offer direct trains from Zurich to Florence and Livorno and vice versa from 2026.
Number of Swiss armed forces exceeds specified limit
This content was published on
The Swiss armed forces had an effective headcount of around 147,000 as of March 1, 2024. This exceeds the upper limit of 140,000 specified in the army organisation by 5%.
More than 400,000 cross-border commuters now work in Switzerland
This content was published on
More than half of all cross-border commuters were resident in France (around 57%). Large proportions also lived in Italy (23%) and Germany (around 16%).
You can find an overview of ongoing debates with our journalists here . Please join us!
If you want to start a conversation about a topic raised in this article or want to report factual errors, email us at english@swissinfo.ch.