March 3 vote poll: backing for pension boost crumbles

KEYSTONE

An initiative to boost old-age pension payments is losing ground, while still convincing a majority of voters, according to a poll. A separate initiative to raise the retirement age to 66 looks set for clear defeat.

Despite various testimonies in recent months by pensioners in Switzerland struggling to make ends meet, support for the “Better life in old age” initiative has waned over the course of the campaign, the poll commissioned by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) found. The “yes” camp is still leading, but perhaps not by enough to swing the final result on March 3.

Launched by trade unions, the people’s initiative calls for 13 monthly pension payments, rather than the current 12 – similar to the 13th monthly salary received by many employees in Switzerland.

Ten days before the vote, only 53% of the population now support the proposal, according to the second SBC poll carried out at the beginning of February by the gfs.bern institute. This amounts to a loss of eight percentage points by the  “yes” camp compared to the first opinion poll in January.

Opponents of the initiative, for their part, gained by the same amount, and 43% of survey respondents are now against the initiative, with 4% still undecided.

The Swiss Abroad are still largely in favour (68%) of the 13th pension payment. But the initiative has also lost popularity among the diaspora; 80% supported it at the beginning of January.

“In Switzerland, the controversy around the initiative is intense, particularly in the German-speaking part of the country. The Swiss Abroad are less exposed to this, which could explain why they support the idea more,” says gfs.bern political scientist Lukas Golder.

Second SBC vote poll

For the second survey ahead of federal votes on March 3, 2024, the gfs.bern institute polled 19,105 eligible voters between February 7 and 14. The statistical margin of error is +/-2.8 percentage points. The SBC is the parent company of SWI swissinfo.ch.

Generational divide

The campaign hinges on a generational conflict. While 55% of under-40-year-olds are against the idea, those between 40 and 64 as well as those who have already reached retirement age (currently 65 in Switzerland) support it.

Voter mobilisation will therefore play an important role in the outcome, according to gfs.bern. Golder says he has noted that pensioners have been stepping back from the debate, which could boost the shift towards a “no” vote.

“Older people have realised that financing a 13th pension payment means a burden on younger generations, even if they are in favour of it. As a result, they are more likely to abstain from voting,” he says.

There are also differences between social groups. The majority of those with higher incomes are against the 13th pension payment, while 50% of the most highly educated are in favour.

Right-wing and centrist parties are against the initiative and seem to have now succeeded in convincing their electorate: supporters of the Swiss People’s Party and the Centre would narrowly vote “no”, although they were in favour of the proposal in January.

Arguments in favour still hold sway

Despite the increase in the “no” vote, arguments in favour of higher pension payments continue to convince a majority of the electorate. In particular, 79% of those polled believe that against a backdrop of inflation it is important to improve the financial situation of senior citizens.

Only one argument put forward by opponents has managed to win over a majority of voters: 56% acknowledge that a 13th pension would lead to an increase in social security contributions and value-added tax, which would adversely affect the standard of living of the middle classes.

Ultimately the outcome of the vote remains open, according to the political scientists at gfs.bern. “The trend towards a “no” may continue or stop. This will determine the outcome,” they write.

In order to be accepted, a people’s initiative also needs to win in a majority of the country’s 26 cantons. This is not certain to be the case either, as the result remains uncertain in five cantons, according to the research institute.

One thing is certain: the result on March 3 will be close.

Retirement at 66 unlikely

The second SBC poll also confirms that a separate initiative by the youth section of the Radical-Liberal Party has no chance of victory at the ballot box.

Some 63% of those polled are opposed to the idea, which proposes to gradually raise the retirement age to 66 before automatically indexing it to changes in life expectancy. The percentage of “no” votes has risen by nine percentage points since January. Only 35% still support the text, while 2% are undecided.

The figures are similar among the Swiss Abroad: 62% oppose the initiative, 34% support it, and 4% are undecided.

Only the supporters of the right-wing Radical-Liberals are still in favour of raising the retirement age. All other population groups are against the idea. The grassroots base of the Swiss People’s Party is also unwilling to work longer, despite the party’s support for the initiative. At the time of the first survey, the majority of current pensioners were in favour of the text, but they now also intend to reject it.

While none of the arguments in favour of the idea have managed to convince a majority of the electorate, the arguments of the “no” camp appeal to a large section of the population. Of those polled, 71% reckon the proposal fails to take into account the difficulties which many older people face in finding work. In addition, 70% feel that the initiative would increase inequality, since the rich would still be able to afford to stop working before reaching the statutory retirement age.

Adapted from French by DeepL/ac,dos