Will righ-wing party get second seat in cabinet?

Switzerland is facing a fortnight of political speculation and uncertainty.The decision by the leading figure in the right-wing Swiss People’s Party to stand for a cabinet post, has started a wave of political manoeuvring and posturing.

Switzerland is facing a fortnight of political speculation and uncertainty.The decision by the leading figure in the right-wing Swiss People’s Party, Christoph Blocher (picture), to stand for a cabinet post, has started a wave of political manoeuvring and posturing before a key parliamentary vote on December 15.

Is Switzerland facing an end to the gentelman’s agreement, the so-called „magic formula,“ which has ensured a four-party system of government and stability for the past 40 years? Or is the current manoeuvring going to result in rhetoric but little else on December 15, when both houses of parliament come to ratify individually the seven members of cabinet?

The People’s Party, which emerged in second place in the 200-member House of Representatives in October’s general election, is laying claim to a second seat in the four-party government. The centre-left Social Democrats have two seats in the cabinet, as do the centre-right Radicals and Christian Democrats, with the People’s Party having only one seat.

Blocher has said he will stand against the Social Democrat Interior Minister and current President Ruth Dreifuss in mid-December, when parliament comes to ratify the seven members of government. Her welfare state policies run counter to Blocher’s views on cutting the state’s intervention in society.

Mathematicians believe Blocher will fall just short of the majority he needs to humiliate Dreifuss. If he is successful, however, the Social Democrats will leave the government and go into opposition.

In theory, the weakest party, the Christian Democrats, should give up one of their two ministerial posts. They are unwilling to do so.

Many political scenarios are being mooted. One of the most popular is that the Radicals and Christian Democrats can now choose whether they wish to rule with the Social Democrats or the People’s Party. Commentators doubt they have the political will to break up the magic formula.

Blocher has made it clear that despite political animosity with his party colleague, Defence Minister Adolf Ogi, he has no wish to supplant him in cabinet.

As politicians continue to plot, there is another scenario. Blocher, who has frequently criticised the government in the past, may not actually want to be a cabinet member. Being outside government may suit his political ends better.

If he and his party are rejected by the majority in parliament on December 15, that will allow him to play the martyr. His party will have been refused a second seat which, even taking into account its weakness in the Senate and French-speaking Switzerland, it feels it deserves.

Blocher knows that the notion of being wronged by an oligarchy in Berne could play well among his grass roots followers come the next election in four years‘ time. December 15 could be long on rhetoric but short on political change, analysts say.

From staff reports