UBS Set to Lose First Round of Fight Against Swiss Capital Hike

(Bloomberg) — UBS Group AG is heading for defeat in the first round of its effort to water down the Swiss government’s law that could force it to maintain as much as $25 billion in extra capital.

In the bill the government will propose to parliament — an outline of which is set to be published on June 6 — the Zurich-based bank would be required to increase its ability to cover losses at foreign subsidiaries to 100% of the capital in those units, according to two people familiar with the matter. The text is not final and the Federal Council, the equivalent of a cabinet in Switzerland, could still request changes, the people said. 

A spokesperson for the Swiss government declined to comment.

While the potential for a full backing has been floated by the regulator Finma since last year, the government has yet to confirm its preferred level. The stance comes in spite of strong efforts by UBS executives including Chief Executive Officer Sergio Ermotti to push back against it, with bankers arguing they would be at a major disadvantage to global peers.

The outline law is also set to contain other broad-ranging proposals to strengthen banking regulation in Switzerland, and comes as part of the response to the collapse of Credit Suisse in 2023. UBS, which took over its stricken rival in a government-backed rescue, is now facing the higher capital requirements on account of its increased size and complexity. 

The issue of ‘backing’ capital in foreign subsidiaries stems from the nature of UBS’s corporate structure — and also formerly that of Credit Suisse — in which many of its foreign units are still part of a core “parent” entity that sits below the listed holding company in the group’s structure. 

A downside of the arrangement is that businesses can’t easily be fenced off, or sold, in times of turbulence without torpedoing the capital of the parent bank. So the regulators — Finma and the Swiss National Bank — have come up with the idea of forcing UBS to match the entire capital held in the subsidiaries with capital held at the parent bank, up from 60% currently.

The proposed law may take until 2029 to come into force, while separate technical rules are in the works that could be implemented sooner. UBS has begun to consider the effect on its business, with some internal scenarios even gaming out moving the bank’s headquarters away from Switzerland. The bank also has a long period to lobby lawmakers, potentially influencing the outcome. 

The expected capital demand will however more quickly affect how much cash the bank can return to investors, and even its merger and acquisition activity. The unpredictable situation is already weighing on its share price. 

Draft legislation will be produced from the outline for broad consultation by the first half of 2026, with parliamentary debates to be held in 2027 and then voted on, probably by the end of that year. Lawmakers could send the proposal back to the government, forcing it to submit a new draft. 

There’s the potential for further delay as Swiss democracy allows for any bill passed by parliament to be challenged in a referendum if enough signatures are collected. Such a plebiscite could take place in 2028, in which case the law would most likely be implemented in 2029 unless voters reject it.  

–With assistance from Noele Illien.

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