Switzerland expects weaker economic growth

Swiss economy growing only weakly - Confederation lowers forecast Keystone-SDA

The threat of United States tariffs has dampened Swiss economic growth expectations for 2026.

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose by just 0.1% on an adjusted basis compared to the starting quarter, as announced by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) on Thursday.

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This confirmed an initial estimate published just under a fortnight ago. According to the press release, industrial value added in Switzerland and exports declined significantly. In contrast, the service sector has seen “broad-based” growth.

The GDP development figure is adjusted for sporting events. It is well known that the Olympic Games and major football events distort Swiss GDP due to the licence revenues that accrue to the sports associations based in Switzerland. However, unadjusted GDP growth was also 0.1%.

The Swiss economy was held back by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. At the beginning of April, the US government introduced basic tariffs of 10% on the import of goods – with a few exceptions. Since the beginning of August, Switzerland has even been subject to a tariff of 39%.

Forecast for 2026 significantly lowered

Against the backdrop of the US tariff hammer and based on a simulation calculation, Seco’s economists are lowering their expectations for GDP growth. As a result of the higher US import tariffs, the Swiss economy is likely to grow more slowly than previously expected, particularly in 2026.

For the current year 2025, Seco is assuming growth of 1.2% in the current situation. In June, the federal economists were still expecting growth of 1.3%. The GDP forecast for 2026 is now +0.8% after previously +1.2%.

Translated from German by DeepL/mga

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