Moderate growth expected for Swiss winter tourism season

Swiss tourism with moderate growth in winter according to BAK Keystone-SDA

Demand for overnight stays in Swiss hotels has been forecast to increase slightly in the 2025/26 winter season, according to BAK Economics.

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The first effects of United States trade policy under Donald Trump are becoming apparent and are likely to intensify in the coming months.

For the winter season from November to April, the economists expect an increase of 0.9% to 18.7 million overnight stays – following growth of 2.3% in the summer and 2.8% last winter.

Domestic demand remains at a high level despite the weak economy and slightly rising unemployment. Price stability and slightly better consumer sentiment would provide additional room for manoeuvre in travel budgets.

BAK Economics anticipates an increase of 0.5% and 9.4 million overnight stays by Swiss guests.

Asia below pre-crisis level

An increase of 1.3% to 9.3 million overnight stays is expected for guests from abroad. Demand from Europe remains “surprisingly robust” despite economic weakness. Supported by the stable euro exchange rate and interest rates, an increase of 0.9% to 5.5 million overnight stays is expected.

BAK Economics expects growth from the US and Asia to slow down. For the first time since 2021, overnight stays by US guests are no longer likely to see double-digit growth in winter – burdened by the weak dollar and Trump’s tariff policy. Nevertheless, growth of 1.5% to 1.2 million overnight stays is expected, as US tourists are comparatively less price-sensitive.

Although demand from Asia is likely to increase, it will remain subdued. This is because China and the Southeast Asian countries are still below the pre-corona level. Growth of 4.2% to 297,000 overnight stays is expected for China, 2% to 212,000 for India and 0.4% to 693,000 for the rest of Asia.

US tariffs cloud prospects

US trade policy is likely to have a greater impact in summer 2026. Higher import prices and lower consumer confidence could dampen travel activity – including in Europe. BAK Economics expects a further slowdown in the summer, particularly from North America and Europe.

In the long term, the institute sees a structural change in the long-distance markets: While the US, China and India were recently among the most important growth drivers, Australia, Canada, Brazil and Mexico are now gaining in importance.

This will make the guest structure more diverse, but at the same time more complex – with new opportunities due to changes in travelling times and a more even distribution of demand throughout the year.

Looking back on the 2025 summer season, BAK draws a positive balance: with 25 million overnight stays, another record was set, fuelled by major events such as the European Women’s Football Championship and the Eurovision Song Contest in Basel.

Translated from German by DeepL/mga

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