Stocks Near Record as Fed-Cut Trade in Full Swing: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders betting the Federal Reserve will cut rates drove stocks close to all-time highs amid hopes that policy easing at a time when the economy is bending, but not breaking will power Corporate America.

Following a slide in the aftermath of weak jobs figures, the S&P 500 bounced back. While upcoming data is projected to show that progress on reducing inflation has stalled, traders braced for almost three Fed cuts this year starting in September. Treasuries kept rising, with the two-year yield remaining at the lowest level since 2022. The dollar retreated.

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“After last week’s tepid jobs numbers, it will likely take a major upside surprise from this week’s inflation data to derail a Fed rate cut next week,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.

Fed officials have signaled concerns are shifting from the inflation risks posed by tariffs to weakness in the job market. Steady inflation expectations are an indication that tariffs could prove a one-time price shock. That’s even if they take several months to work their way through the economy.

Ahead of next week’s Fed meeting, Thursday’s core consumer price index is projected to show a 0.3% increase in August for a second month. Before that, figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday will likely unveil another US jobs markdown that will set the stage for a rate cut.

“While the Sept. 5 report showed job growth had slowed, it doesn’t appear to be signaling a recession,” according to Invesco Global Market Strategy Office. “Slower growth, anchored inflation expectations, falling yields, and anticipated rate cuts point to an optimistic outlook for stocks.”

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“Near-term payroll data may look soft, but with the Fed set to begin cutting rates — and markets historically performing best in rate-cutting cycles, typically with a 20% run rate — the broader backdrop tilts positive,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.

This month could defy the usual seasonal weakness in equities. While the S&P 500 has fallen 1% on average during Septembers going back to 1971, it has gained 1.2% in the month when the Fed was reducing rates and the economy was not contracting, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Historically, in the two years following the start of a non-recessionary rate-cutting cycle, the median S&P 500 has climbed as much as 50%, said Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank AG. By contrast, returns are more muted when cuts coincide with recessions.

“That helps explain why equities are generally welcoming the prospect of Fed easing after a nine-month pause,” he said. “Recession probabilities are still relatively low, but the latest labor-market data injects a dose of caution given payroll growth has slowed to a crawl.”

The hope, Reid notes, is that these rate cuts will help pre-empt any downturn, keeping us on the soft-landing path.

Read: S&P 500’s Rare Summer Climbs Send Bullish Signal: Equity Insight

To Megan Horneman at Verdence Capital Advisors, this week’s inflation data probably won’t be enough to change the likelihood of a Fed reduction in September. The biggest question for investors now is how many more rate cuts we will receive.

“After this week’s inflation data, we will get a better picture on what the Fed can do with rates,” Horneman said. “However, we are not out of the woods with inflation, and the Fed may deliver a ‘hawkish cut’ while reminding investors of their dual mandate, especially if inflation continues to move further away from their target.”

Options traders are betting the S&P 500 will post a modest swing on Thursday following the CPI report, with a projected move of nearly 0.7% in either direction, according to data compiled by Piper Sandler. That’s well below an average realized move of 1% over the past year.

Secondary indicators of inflation have shown some upward pressure, so the market is clearly more concerned with these indicators coming in hot. How hot is the question? according to Bespoke Investment Group strategists.

“While a September cut next week is likely a done deal, the pace of cuts moving forward from there will hinge in large part on how ‘bad’ the inflation data is,” they said. “Come Thursday morning, the market will either be only thinking about stagflation or three cuts between now and year-end.”

“Aggressive rate cuts are coming,” said Dennis DeBusschere at 22V Research. “That might change if labor-market data firms over the coming quarters. A series of rate cuts to end 2025 and persistently easy financial conditions should be expected. The bar to change to rate cut expectations through year-end 2025 seems high.”

Assuming economic activity holds up, easy financial conditions are a support for markets, he said, adding that his S&P 500 fair value framework points to 7,000. The index closed Monday at 6,495.15.

Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson expects further gains in US equities even if moves turn more choppy in the near term. He reiterated that the economy is transitioning to a so-called “early cycle” stage, which would support a “durable and broad” earnings recovery.

At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., strategists led by David Kostin said the rally in US stocks is set to extend as laggards including small caps play catch-up amid a resilient economic outlook.

A weaker-than-expected jobs report last week stirred worries among investors that the central bank has waited too long to reduce borrowing costs. RBC Capital Markets strategist Lori Calvasina said the soft data was raising uncertainty in a stock market that’s “priced for perfection.”

At JPMorgan Chase & Co., Andrew Tyler says the bull market feels “unstoppable,” but if the Fed follows through on a widely expected rate cut at its Sept. 17 meeting, that could turn into a ‘Sell the News’ event.

To Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management, there’s little to prevent the Fed from cutting rates at this month’s meeting. And that would likely kick-start a run of 100 basis points in reductions over the next four meetings, from September to January, he said.

“Against this backdrop, we continue to recommend high-quality fixed income, where investors can lock in yields above those available on cash and benefit from potential capital gains if policy becomes more accommodative,” he said.

The US yield curve has further to steepen should the Fed unleash aggressive rate cuts, DoubleLine Capital’s Bill Campbell said. He expects easier monetary policy to encourage risk-taking in credit markets, at least in the short term, while doing little to shore up rising long-term yields.

“It potentially extends this runway for risk assets, credit assets to continue to trade at very rich valuations,” Campbell said. “The clearest expression of these issues are likely a lower dollar and a steepening curve.”

Corporate Highlights:

Dell Technologies Inc. said Chief Financial Officer Yvonne McGill is stepping down and will be replaced on an interim basis by David Kennedy, a senior vice president with the firm. SpaceX, the Elon Musk-backed company that owns the Starlink satellite internet network, agreed to acquire wireless spectrum from EchoStar Corp. for about $17 billion, allowing Charlie Ergen’s beleaguered telecommunications company to resolve an overhanging regulatory probe and pay down debt. Alphabet Inc.’s Google was sued by advertising exchange PubMatic Inc., which is seeking billions of dollars over its claim that the search giant has illegally monopolized the ad technology market. Amazon.com Inc. has taken a stake in the Colombian delivery company Rappi Inc., a strategic partnership that pairs the e-commerce giant’s retail and technology infrastructure with one of Latin America’s best-known last-mile delivery outfits. Investors expecting Apple Inc.’s biggest product event of the year to serve as the next catalyst for its recently-revived stock might come away disappointed. Barring a surprise at Tuesday’s unveiling, Apple shares are seen to have little room for further gains after adding more than $450 billion in market value since the end of July Nasdaq Inc. is asking regulators to let investors trade tokenized versions of stocks on its exchange, a move that could mark the first big test of blockchain technology inside the core of America’s equity markets. Hasbro Inc., the company behind the Monopoly board game, is moving its headquarters to Boston from Pawtucket, Rhode Island, boosting the city’s struggling business district and Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey’s effort to lure investments. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. will fulfill its goals for expanding across Colorado with the planned takeover of FirstBank Holding Co., and the regional-banking giant will focus its branch-opening effort on other states instead, PNC Chief Executive Officer Bill Demchak said. Robinhood Markets Inc. has been added to the S&P 500, marking a new phase for the retail trading platform that helped define the pandemic-era boom in individual investing. The company will join the benchmark in the latest quarterly rebalance, S&P Dow Jones Indices said Friday. AppLovin Corp. and Emcor Group Inc. will also be added to the index. The three companies will replace MarketAxess Holdings Inc., Caesars Entertainment Inc. and Enphase Energy Inc. prior to the start of trading on Sept. 22. CVS Health Corp. shares dipped after executives during a private investor meeting provided no details about its upcoming quality ratings from the US government and offered no financial guidance. BYD Co. is reinforcing its European expansion with new models and showrooms amid a bruising price war at home in China. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% The MSCI World Index rose 0.4% Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.2% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1762 The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3550 The Japanese yen was little changed at 147.42 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $112,107.76 Ether fell 0.2% to $4,292.26 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.04% Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.64% Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.61% The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.49% The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 4.69% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $62.37 a barrel Spot gold rose 1.4% to $3,636.94 an ounce ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.