Businesses set for improved 2004
Most Swiss companies expect improved sales and earnings this year, according to a survey by banking giant UBS.
Financial services, capital goods, telecoms and pharmaceuticals are the industries tipped to lead the economic recovery in 2004.
The survey, published on Friday, covered 4,300 companies in the country’s 27 main business sectors.
UBS said that most firms were feeling more optimistic following several years of economic gloom.
“In view of the brighter economic prospects worldwide, the companies surveyed are strikingly unanimous in their optimism for the current year,” said UBS in a statement, adding that 20 of the companies expected better results in 2004.
Negative
But the bank said that the construction and watchmaking industries were still suffering from falling demand and earnings.
“Only the construction sector fears that it could see a renewed drop in business volume. Despite signs of recovery, watchmakers are not convinced that sales will rise,” said UBS.
The upbeat predictions for the year ahead contrast with the negative results for 2003. The survey revealed that sales in general were flat last year, with only ten sectors registering an increase in sales volume while 17 reported a downturn.
Industries reporting the sharpest drop were watchmaking and tourism, which felt the full effects of the decline in international travel due to the sluggish economy, the Iraq war and the Sars virus.
No surprise
Claudio Sfreddo from the Créa institute, a Lausanne-based economics research group, said he was not surprised by the results.
“The delayed rebound of the construction sector has to do with the legal framework, because Switzerland has very rigid planning rules,” Sfreddo told swissinfo.
Sfreddo added that the watchmaking industry was mainly affected by weaknesses in the export sector.
“This particularly applies to countries like the United States and China, where the high exchange rate of the Swiss franc carries a lot of weight and affects sales,” he explained.
Growth predictions
The survey comes just ten days after investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted a 2.2 per cent upswing for the Swiss economy for 2004.
The Créa institute itself has forecast growth of one per cent for the year. This compares with a 1.5 per cent increase predicted by both the Swiss government and national bank.
But some economists fear the weak dollar, which fell to a 30-year low against the franc on January 6, could torpedo a nascent recovery by Switzerland’s export-dependent economy.
swissinfo with agencies
The UBS survey covers 4,300 companies in the country’s 27 main business sectors.
20 of them said they expected better results in 2004.
Four sectors – financial services, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals and capital goods – are forecast to lead the economic recovery.
The construction and watchmaking industries are still suffering from falling demand and earnings.
Sales in general were flat in 2003.
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