‘Snow Compass’ guides Swiss resorts through declining snowfall 

Adelboden, January 1, 2016. Keystone / Peter Schneider

The winter season got off to a good start in Switzerland with heavy early snowfalls in several ski resorts. But the long-term picture remains far more complex. As the Swiss Alps warm, resorts are being pushed to rethink their strategies and those at lower altitudes must look for alternatives to skiing. A new scientific online tool may offer solutions. 

Climate change is especially evident in Switzerland, which is warming almost twice as fast as the global average. As snowlines climb, mountain destinations are feeling the impact acutely.  

What will winters look like in the future? How much natural snowfall can be expected? What is the potential for artificial snowmaking? And which adaptation strategies will work best? 

To support Swiss tourism professionals in addressing these challenges and preparing for a warmer future, they now have – for the first time – access to detailed scientific models that predict precisely how many snow days resorts can expect each winter through 2050. The online models outline snow reliability and snowmaking potential in 23 mountain regions across Switzerland; they were presented to the Swiss press last month. 

The tools form part of “Snow CompassExternal link”, a project aimed at helping resorts adapt to climate change launched by Switzerland Tourism in collaboration with Swiss Cable Car Association, the Association of Swiss Tourism Managers, the Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF), the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss) and the federal institute of technology ETH Zurich.  

According to Berno Stoffel, director of the Swiss Cable Car Association, the simulation tools introduced in October have been received “very positively” by resorts.  

The Snow Compass project identifies three main strategies already emerging across the country. Some higher resorts are doubling down on winter sports by investing in infrastructure at altitude, modern snowmaking and better slope management, while forming regional partnerships or expanding high-altitude accommodation.  

Others are adapting to more variable snow conditions by creating alternative attractions – from snow tubing to wellness centres and cultural festivals – and targeting international markets less familiar with winter holidays. These approaches help fill hotels outside peak periods and reduce the impact of poor snow years. 

A third strategy sees destinations diversifying into year-round tourism to offset declining snow reliability. Small resorts such as Charmey, Sattel-Hochstuckli and Moléson are expanding summer attractions, building slides and bike trails, or shifting to family-oriented experiences that operate in every season. 

‘No ready-made solution’ 

There is no ready-made solution or strategy for each mountain region, Stoffel told Swiss public radio SRF: “Instead, there is a range of strategies for securing winter tourism in the future.” 

Large construction projects are currently planned or underway across the Alps. “For these service providers, the models are a confirmation and help them obtain the necessary permits more easily based on data,” Stoffel explained. 

The Snow Compass tool is also designed to help resort officials decide whether to modernise infrastructure like mountain railways, many of which are nearing the end of their operational lifespan. Stoffel estimates that every year around CHF350 million ($438 million) needs to be invested in cable cars, lifts and other mountain infrastructure, plus a further CHF60 million annually for snowmaking systems.  

‘More winter rain and less snow’ 

Since measurements began in 1864, winter temperatures in the Swiss Alps have risen by 2.4° Celsius on average. Depending on future climate developments, further temperature changes and shifts in the zero-degree level are to be expected. 

This critical threshold has already climbed by several hundred metres since the early 20th century and is projected to rise another 550 metres by the end of the century to around 1,450 metres in winter, according to MeteoSwiss. 

SWI swissinfo.ch

That means more winter rain and less snow. MeteoSwiss estimates that if global heating continues unchecked to 3°C above pre-industrials, snowfall in the Swiss Alps could drop by around 25%, while rainfall would almost double.  

At some altitudes, average snow depth has decreased by up to 8cm per decade over the past 60 years, revealed an SLF analysis in October. 

SWI swissinfo.ch

By 2050, SLF experts also expect Switzerland’s winter season to begin 10-20 days later and end 10-15 days earlier. 

Less snow and greater uncertainty 

Snow Compass aims to help mountain destinations better orient their tourism offers, says Christoph Marty, a snow expert at SLF who helped provide the data.  

“Whether there will still be enough snow for skiing at a certain resort in ten years’ time and whether the conditions for making snow on the slopes will be sufficient depends on many factors and is complex,” he said. “Slope position, the influence of the [warm, dry] Föhn winds and other factors all play a part in deciding how a ski destination operates.” 

What is clear is that resorts – particularly at lower altitudes – must prepare for less snow and greater uncertainty in the coming decades. And to stay competitive these destinations must increasingly look to activities that depend less on snow. 

“Winter tourism is not disappearing, it is changing,” declared Stoffel.  

Edited by Virginie Mangin/gw