Stock Bulls Get Wake-Up Call From Wall Street CEOs: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Risky assets slid, with tech stocks and cryptocurrencies bearing the brunt of the selling, after long-simmering concerns about lofty valuations were fanned anew by a chorus of Wall Street executives who warned investors to brace for a pullback.
With the rally confined to fewer and fewer shares as sentiment and technical indicators showed signs of overheating, the chiefs of giants from Capital Group to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley noted the possibility of a pullback as a healthy development.
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“This reinforces our thinking that the stock market is ripe for some sort of material pullback over the near-term, no matter where it’s going over the intermediate/longer-term,” according to Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
Nobody needs to look hard to find warnings that stocks look frothy after a record-breaking surge from April’s nadir pushed valuations to levels associated with exuberance. Optimism has grown heated in recent months, with many traders seeming too busy chasing the upside to worry about an expensive market.
The S&P 500 recently notched one of its best six-month stretches since the 1950s fueled by the resilience of Corporate America, the booming outlook for artificial intelligence and hopes the Federal Reserve will keep cutting rates to prop up the economy. Yet those solid gains combined with the recent narrowness of the advance spurred vulnerability worries.
There’s a clear example of that in Tuesday’s trading.
Palantir Technologies Inc. sank 8% even after boosting its outlook. Following a nearly 400% surge in the past year, its bullish AI prospects weren’t enough to offset valuation angst. Adding to the concerns, hedge fund manager Michael Burry disclosed bearish wagers on the firm and Nvidia Corp.
The S&P 500 fell 1.2%. A gauge of tech megacaps lost 2.3%. In late hours, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. delivered a revenue forecast that failed to impress some investors, who had bid up the shares this year in anticipation of an AI-fueled sales bonanza.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid three basis points to 4.09%. Bitcoin sank about 6%. The dollar hit the highest since May.
Corporate earnings are strong but “what’s challenging are valuations,” said Mike Gitlin, chief executive officer Capital Group, during a financial summit organized by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on Tuesday.
On whether stocks are cheap, fair or fully valued, Gitlin said most people “would say we’re somewhere between fair and full, but I don’t think a lot of people would say we’re between cheap and fair,” he said.
His views were echoed by Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick and Goldman Sachs’s David Solomon, who said pullbacks are a normal feature of market cycles.
“Tough to argue against that,” said Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “While the stock market rally is not irrational (backed by solid company earnings and easier monetary policy), it does reflect a degree of exuberance judging by elevated investor bullishness and options market positioning.”
While the headline sounds scary enough, the details read a lot less scary, said Bespoke Investment Group strategists, referring to the remarks from Wall Street CEOs.
“Concerns are concerns, though, and when investors worry, they sell,” Bespoke noted.
“Worries about stretched valuations are not new given the current market conditions and fact that record-high stock prices have become the norm, not the exception,” noted Ian Lyngen, Vail Hartman and Delaney Choi at BMO Capital Markets.
That being said, the BMO strategists remarked they’re “sympathetic” to the view that risk assets would benefit from a round of consolidation following the latest leg of the bullish repricing.
“One concern here is that the leadership has become worryingly narrow, with a handful of mega-cap tech names doing all the heavy lifting, leaving the broader market vulnerable to any wobble in the AI narrative,” according to Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com.
The equal-weighted S&P 500 is trading at a discount to the US equity benchmark, data compiled by Jefferies show. That level resembles “the beginning of the end of the tech bubble” in the late 1990s. But while the parallels exist, that doesn’t mean a stock-market rout is imminent.
“While the market feels quite heavy, it is important to remember that this comes after a run of record-breaking gains,” said Razaqzada. “This means that there will be plenty of people looking to buy the dip as they have done so successfully in the past.”
At Bank of America Corp., Savita Subramanian says two US equity bull cases are now at odds.
“We remain constructive on the S&P 500 medium-term, but see near-term risks and potential conflicts in two expensive areas: AI stocks are pricing in transformative growth and monetization. Simultaneously, bears on consumer spending have been shaken out over the last few years of healthy consumption defying inflation and rates pressure.”
“We favor neither chasing rallies nor selling on weakness,” said Paul Christopher at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “Instead, long-term investors should incrementally add exposure on down days to high-quality US equity asset classes and sectors and stay selective in fixed income.”
At current valuations, Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments says her firm’s “market-weight” conviction in US large-cap equities implies only marginal buying.
“Market momentum around AI, which we see supported by robust economic activity, policy tailwinds, strong sentiment, and ample liquidity, could reverse at any time,” she said. But as long as earnings expectations and capital expenditures remain healthy, “we’d buy that dip.”
The thing about corrections is their timing is never predictable, nor do they play out in a predictable way, noted Chris Low at FHN Financial. Whether the slide proves more than an opportunity to buy the dip remains to be seen, he said.
“We maintain our view that the better risk/reward opportunities lie in buying pullbacks at confirmed support following this six-month bull cycle,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
Commodity trading advisors will be small sellers of equities under every scenario over the coming week, according to Goldman Sachs equity derivatives and flows specialist Cullen Morgan.
A correction in stocks is overdue and the question is about the magnitude of it if and when it comes, says Goldman Sachs partner Rich Privorotsky.
At Janney Montgomery Scott, Dan Wantrobski says he continues to watch the 6,750-6,800 zone for initial trading support on the S&P 500. The benchmark remains overbought across multiple timeframes and thus vulnerable to “air pockets” and a correction in November, he noted. The gauge closed at 6,771.55 on Tuesday.
“Keep your heads on a swivel,” Wantrobski said.
Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG says one question he’s been getting is: how deep could the pullback be?
He noted the S&P 500 hasn’t touched its 50-day moving average currently around 6,654 nor has it had a 3% drawdown on a closing basis since April.
“Both of those would be a minimum objective by our work, but given how extreme the recent divergences have become, we think a move towards the 6,400-6,500 level is a strong likelihood,” Krinsky said.
“Despite headline risks and the potential for short-term pullbacks, the bull market continues to earn the benefit of the doubt,” said Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services. “History suggests more upside, though not in a linear fashion: Bull markets that turn three tend to see further gains, though stocks are in an unusually long period without a 5% pullback.”
Of the seven prior bull markets that extended beyond year three, each saw further gains in the following year, though not without some bumps along the way, Lerner noted.
When the S&P 500 rose more than 15% through October, history suggests momentum often carries into year-end, he said. Since 1950, 21 out of 75 years have seen year-to-date price returns above that threshold. In those years, November and December delivered an average gain of 4.7%.
Bulls are still in control — but the ground is shifting just enough to keep everyone on their toes, noted Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth.
“Stay focused, stay disciplined, and don’t get sucked into the noise. Because in the end, discipline always beats drama,” he said.
Corporate Highlights:
Super Micro Computer Inc. gave an earnings forecast for the current period that fell short of estimates, reinforcing concerns about the server maker’s ability to profit from demand for AI equipment. Amgen Inc. raised its full-year guidance after third-quarter results beat expectations, a positive sign in light of hurdles from Washington and the risks of increased competition. Cava Group Inc. cut its full-year sales growth targets after foot traffic stalled in the third quarter, adding to worrying trends that financially squeezed consumers are forgoing fast-casual restaurants. Match Group Inc. provided a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue outlook and warned that product testing at its largest dating app, Tinder, will come at the expense of short-term gains. Rivian Automotive Inc. reported a smaller-than-expected loss in a sign of progress as the electric-vehicle maker cuts costs and staff ahead of plans to begin deliveries of a new midsize SUV next year. Apple Inc. is preparing to enter the low-cost laptop market for the first time, developing a budget Mac aimed at luring away customers from Chromebooks and entry-level Windows PCs. WhatsApp, the popular messaging service owned by Meta Platforms Inc., introduced a standalone Apple Watch app that makes it easier for users to interact with their chats from Apple’s smartwatch without pulling out an iPhone. Amazon.com Inc. has sent a cease-and-desist letter to Perplexity AI Inc. demanding that the artificial intelligence search startup stop allowing its AI browser agent, Comet, to make purchases online for users. Amazon alleges that a Berkshire Hathaway Inc.-owned utility in Oregon is failing to provide sufficient power for four new data center facilities. International Business Machines Corp. will cut thousands of workers this quarter while it continues to shift the focus of its business to higher-growth software and services. OpenAI is releasing its Sora social video app on Android devices, one month after the artificial intelligence company launched the popular — and controversial — service on iPhone. Caterpillar Inc. plans to more than double its capacity of gas turbines to tap into soaring demand for natural gas plants. Flights in and out of Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport near Washington resumed on Tuesday after flying was halted due to a bomb threat on a United Airlines Holdings Inc. jet. Uber Technologies Inc. issued a muted adjusted earnings forecast and said legal charges ate into its third-quarter profits, overshadowing strong growth in its rideshare and delivery businesses. Pfizer Inc. raised its 2025 profit forecast for the second time this year, as ongoing cost cuts helped make up for slow sales growth that’s driving its battle for the obesity startup Metsera Inc. Just hours after both Pfizer and Novo Nordisk A/S raised their multibillion-dollar offers for obesity startup Metsera Inc., a judge paved the way for the pharmaceutical titans to throw even more money on the table in one of the hottest areas of medicine. Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. plunged after a trial designed to confirm the benefits of two of its older drugs failed to show clear patient improvement, raising questions about the drugs’ future. Hims & Hers Health Inc. said it was in talks with Novo Nordisk to sell its forthcoming obesity pill on the telehealth site. United States Steel Corp. is anticipating a potential $2.5 billion earnings increase from investments promised by Nippon Steel Corp. as part of the Japanese company’s takeover of the American steelmaker. Yum! Brands Inc. has initiated a strategic review for Pizza Hut, exploring options for the struggling chain as it falls behind in the highly competitive pizza market. Papa John’s International Inc. sank following a report that Apollo Global Management Inc. pulled its bid to take the pizza chain private. Victoria’s Secret & Co. is considering adding Australian billionaire Brett Blundy to its board and is vetting his candidacy as a director, the board said. Harley-Davidson Inc., the motorcycle maker, posted lower sales in the latest quarter and indicated it faces soft demand for higher-priced bikes. Hertz Global Holdings Inc. posted better-than-expected profit in the third quarter, boosted by cost reductions in its rental fleet that offset falling revenue. Marriott International Inc. reported earnings that beat estimates, as the company’s growing hotel count helped make up for slower lodging demand. Bath & Body Works Inc. is shaking up its leadership team as its new chief executive officer moves to revive the brand after a stock plunge. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. lowered its outlook for the year on continued uncertainty over US biofuels policy, but the crop trader remained upbeat for 2026 as it anticipates more clarity over renewables and the recent trade deal with China. Apollo Global Management Inc.’s third-quarter earnings surpassed Wall Street estimates as the buyout giant edged closer to reaching $1 trillion of assets. First Brands Group sued founder Patrick James for allegedly misappropriating hundreds of millions of dollars from the US automotive supplier that collapsed into bankruptcy in September. Spotify Technology SA reported active users and sales in the third quarter that surpassed analysts’ expectations even as ad-supported revenue fell. What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“Tech is under pressure Tuesday after one of the market’s most vocal alarm-sounders disclosed bearish bets against high-fliers like Nvidia and Palantir, reigniting valuation concerns. The unwind of the AI bubble, however, will require much more than that.”
-Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 fell 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.1% The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% The MSCI World Index fell 1.1% Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 2.3% The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.8% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4% The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1481 The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.3019 The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 153.66 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 5.9% to $100,602.57 Ether fell 11% to $3,205.69 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.09% Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.65% Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.43% The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.58% The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.67% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $60.39 a barrel Spot gold fell 1.7% to $3,934.45 an ounce –With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren and Anand Krishnamoorthy.
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