Wall Street Holds Off on Big Bets Ahead of Fed Day: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — With less than 24 hours to go until the Federal Reserve’s final interest-rate decision of 2025, Wall Street traders put off placing big bets as they waited for clues to the central bank’s path for next year.
The S&P 500 ended Tuesday’s session little changed after JPMorgan Chase & Co. warned about higher-than-expected costs and called consumers “fragile.” The lender fell more than 4%. The blue-chip Dow slid while the Nasdaq 100 made a small advance. The rate on 10-year Treasuries hovered at around 4.19% following a government bond auction, while the dollar was little changed and Bitcoin climbed.
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In late trading, shares of GE Vernova Inc. rose more than 6% after the US manufacturer doubled its dividend and increased its scope for share buybacks while raising earnings projections amid soaring demand for electricity.
Money markets are pricing around two cuts in 2026 after a likely quarter-point reduction tomorrow — a retreat from more optimistic forecasts in recent weeks. Many market watchers, including Tom Essaye, are worried about the risk of a hawkish cut, where the Fed lowers interest rates but signals it’s done with rate cuts for the moment.
“It’s not too much of an exaggeration to say that the rate cut is actually the least important part of this meeting,” said the founder of The Sevens Report. The market “cares much more that the Fed signals it will continue to cut rates and does not signal a pause in the rate-cut cycle.”
Kevin Hassett, the frontrunner in President Donald Trump’s search to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, said at an event Tuesday that he sees plenty of room to substantially lower rates, even more than a quarter-point cut.
“If the data suggests that we could do it, then — like right now — I think there’s plenty of room to do it,” he said during the Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit.
While Powell’s successor remains up in the air, a dayslong slump in US government bonds continued unabated. Traders have grown cautious about the pace of monetary easing beyond Wednesday’s meeting. For now, the Fed’s decision and its guidance for 2026 remain the key focus for traders as markets made incremental moves.
The Treasury Department’s monthly auction of 10-year notes at 1 p.m. New York time drew a yield of 4.175%, matching the level indicated by trading just before the bidding deadline, when it was about a basis point higher on the day.
Small stock gains from stale data, delayed by a government shutdown, didn’t hold. Equities had initially risen after better-than-expected job openings data for October. The number of available positions climbed to 7.67 million, a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 7.12 million.
“It’s hard to read too much into the JOLTs report – the outperformance in job openings is ostensibly hawkish (which is why yields turned higher on the release), but the pace of layoffs rose too,”said Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli.
US stocks may turn more volatile after tomorrow’s meeting than after other recent decisions, with Bloomberg options data showing an implied move of 0.7% in either direction. A hawkish cut is likely to trigger volatility, but the market could reset expectations after that.
“If the Fed is too hawkish, we expect the White House to soon announce Powell’s replacement,” said Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. That would be a “market clearing event,” in his view.
Globally, government debt markets have been under pressure as central bankers signal that their easing cycles are coming to an end. On Tuesday, Australia’s Michele Bullock declared her country’s easing phase over, following comments from the European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel that she’s comfortable with the next move being higher. The Bank of Japan is expected to hike next week.
“Given all the tension in global bond markets at the moment, the meeting of the Fed could potentially add fuel to the fire,” said Vincent Juvyns, chief investment strategist at ING in Brussels. “Investors will also be watching very closely the results of Oracle and Broadcom. There’s a lot at stake this week.”
What Bloomberg strategists say…
“While pretty much everyone and their dog expects the Fed to cut rates on Wednesday and to signal some modest additional easing next year, there seems to be a growing realization that US policy expectations are looking out of sync with the rest of the world.
As such, the expectation that tomorrow will see a ‘hawkish cut’ and divides on the committee seems pretty accurate. It does, of course, widen the window for a dovish surprise.”
— Cameron Crise, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.
Corporate News:
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marianne Lake said the bank anticipates spending $105 billion next year, an outlook that surpasses analyst estimates and sent shares tumbling. Microsoft Corp. pledged to invest $17.5 billion on artificial intelligence and cloud computing in India, targeting the world’s most populous nation to help fuel its growth. Home Depot Inc. is offering cautious preliminary guidance for next year, a sign that the home-improvement retailer doesn’t anticipate the housing market to rebound in the short term. Google has been hit by a European Union investigation over fears it may have abused its dominance by using its own artificial intelligence tools to squeeze out competition. PepsiCo Inc. reached an agreement with activist investor Elliott Investment Management that includes a 20% reduction in its US product lineup and a sharper focus on affordability, while the soda and snacks company also plans layoffs as part of cost reduction efforts. Trafigura Group reported a “strong” year for both its oil and metals divisions as the commodities trading giant boosted payouts to staff and profit remained resilient. A Bloomberg basket of European defense stocks rose as German lawmakers prepare to approve a record €52 billion ($61 billion) in military procurement contracts. China Vanke Co.’s offshore creditors have started fielding requests for talks with potential advisors, a sign that investors are preparing for a worsening of the developer’s debt crisis. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2% The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% The MSCI World Index fell 0.1% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1627 The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3299 The Japanese yen fell 0.7% to 156.94 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 2% to $93,147.92 Ether rose 5.6% to $3,324.65 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.18% Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.85% Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.50% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $58.33 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,211.86 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,210.01 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Neil Campling, Julien Ponthus and Ira Iosebashvili.
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