Stocks Rally on Bets Shutdown Endgame Is in Sight: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders piled into riskier corners of the market, with stocks climbing alongside Bitcoin as the US Senate advanced a plan to end the longest-ever government shutdown, which would remove a significant economic headwind. Bonds lost steam.
The risk-on bid lifted the S&P 500 by 1.5%. Technology megacaps, which had been hit the hardest in recent sessions, saw their biggest advance since May. As demand for safety waned, Treasuries edged lower while the dollar underperformed most of its major currency peers.
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President Donald Trump expressed support for the bipartisan deal to end the US shutdown, a key development that makes it likely the government reopens within days.
Markets took the Senate step as a breakthrough, given that ending the shutdown would bring access to economic data and more clarity on the outlook for monetary policy.
“Reopening would not only boost sentiment, but also open the way for data releases, which could provide more insight into the health of the US jobs market and, more broadly, the US economy ahead of next month’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision,” said Fiona Cincotta at City Index.
The S&P 500 topped 6,800. A gauge of megacaps climbed about 3%. US health-care insurers and hospitals slid as lawmakers drew closer to ending the shutdown without securing an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies. In late hours, CoreWeave Inc. posted solid sales.
Short-dated bonds trailed the rest of the curve, with two-year yields up three basis points to 3.59%. Treasuries are facing a demand test from this week’s auctions totaling $125 billion. The bond market will be closed Tuesday for Veterans Day.
“There are signals that an end to the government shutdown is in sight,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We expect strong bipartisan support for a relief before Thanksgiving.”
An end to the shutdown would take another risk off the table, especially since we were edging up to a period where the government closure would have lasting impact on the economy, said Sonu Varghese at Carson Group.
“The government re-opening will also be helpful because we’ll start getting macroeconomic data once again, and so the Fed will not go into their December meeting flying blind,” he added.
Historical precedent from the 2013 shutdown suggests that September’s employment report could be among the first to hit the wires, potentially within three business days of reopening, according to Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank.
Assuming the government reopens and statistics start moving again, Fed officials will still be confronted with data compiled via retroactive surveys and other methods — if the figures are published at all. And while several private-sector reports on the job market are helping to fill the void of official data, alternatives to government inflation figures are harder to come by and more limited in scope.
Even if the government reopened on Friday, it would take a number of weeks before the market received all the data that has been delayed since the beginning of the government shutdown, according to Vail Hartman, Delaney Choi and Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
“Moreover, concerns regarding government data quality will likely persist into 2026, leaving the private data of heightened relevance to near-term monetary policy expectations for the foreseeable future,” they said.
“The potential now for some more data in time for the December meeting that could refresh and sustain the picture of a soft labor market with ongoing risk of more serious deterioration makes a cut a bit more likely,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
The first piece of labor data – the delayed September employment report – should be released within days of the shutdown ending, though it remains uncertain what October/November data will emerge and when, he noted.
“The first major data print post-shutdown will likely be the September employment report,” said Michael Gapen at Morgan Stanley. “Other data on inflation and spending will probably take 1-2 weeks.”
After lowering rates twice this year, policymakers are divided over how much more to cut borrowing costs. Fed chair Jerome Powell said last month that a rate cut in December was not a foregone conclusion. And several officials speaking since the central bank’s October gathering have pushed for a pause in December, emphasizing the need to tame inflation.
Traders still see a nearly 60% chance of another 25 basis-point Fed rate cut next month. A December rate cut was fully priced in as recently as mid-October.
Fed Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said he expects the economy to bounce early next year, underscoring the need for officials to approach rate cuts with caution. His San Francisco counterpart Mary Daly noted the economy is probably suffering a downturn in demand, and warned against keeping rates too high for too long.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran told CNBC that better-than-expected inflation data and signs of continued weakness in the job market call for a rate cut in December.
“Fedspeak this week will be a largely repetitive mix of hawks and doves. We are unlikely to learn anything groundbreaking,” said Oscar Munoz at TD Securities.
“The combination of Fed easing and robust corporate earnings remains favorable for stocks, while quality bonds offer appealing risk-reward. Under-allocated investors should add exposure to transformational growth trends including AI,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management.
Tech remains the story for the stock market, noted Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“Sustaining any bounce may hinge on whether the market’s AI leaders regain momentum after last week’s setback,” he said.
At HSBC, Max Kettner says he continues to think that US equities in particular can continue to power ahead in the coming months – though not only tech, but also early-cyclicals.
“The US Q3 reporting season once again defied the doomsayers,” he said. “Sentiment and positioning also continue to be pretty neutral overall – not surprising, of course, given the constant concerns around an AI bubble.”
At Oppenheimer Asset Management, strategist John Stoltzfus said it was too early to “give up on” chipmakers and the outlook for AI.
“While overhangs from Federal Reserve guidance and the shutdown have weighed on recent price action, these are temporary headwinds on the way to a solid 2026 driven by earnings growth,” Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson wrote.
In fact, companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings for the third quarter have grown the bottom line by 14.6%, effectively doubling what analysts were expecting.
The momentum of earnings revisions — which measures the ratio of upgrades versus downgrades — is hovering near the highest level since the week of April 11, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data, suggesting an optimism from Wall Street about companies’ ability to deliver strong results over the next year.
“Rather than focusing on the pullbacks themselves, the key is to watch how the market responds to them,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
He’s watching the speed and strength of buying interest — whether from retail or institutional investors — and how leadership areas like financials and liquidity-sensitive small caps behave in the wake of quick corrections, especially as story stocks test the market’s underlying conviction heading into 2026.
Corporate Highlights:
Verizon Communications Inc. sold $11 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds to fund its acquisition of Frontier Communications Parent Inc., joining a surge in jumbo debt sales in recent weeks as borrowers seek to take advantage of relatively easy market conditions. Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. reached a deal with retailers to reduce some of their fees and give merchants more leeway to reject customers who use certain credit cards, including the premium ones that have been surging in popularity. Tyson Foods Inc. said it expects profits to be little changed next year as its beef segment continues to lose money, even as the Trump administration points to the meatpacking industry for driving up prices. Coinbase Global Inc. plans to launch a platform that will allow select groups of investors early access to new cryptocurrencies, before those tokens are made available for trading on its main exchange. Instacart posted better-than-expected order growth and provided an upbeat earnings outlook for the current period, indicating that demand for its core grocery delivery service has been holding strong. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported slowing growth in monthly revenue as investors debate the sustainability of an AI boom that has propelled the stocks of customers like Nvidia Corp. this year. Barrick Mining Corp. is wooing investors with payouts and share buybacks as new leadership seeks to turn around its mining operations amid surging gold prices. Metsera Inc. sank after Novo Nordisk A/S declined to further raise its offer for the US maker of an experimental weight-loss drug, bringing a bidding war with Pfizer Inc. to an end. Roche Holding AG said a multiple sclerosis drug showed it could work for most forms of the disease in two late-stage trials, cutting the number of relapses compared to another treatment over nearly two years. Restaurant Brands International Inc. agreed to sell a majority stake in the China unit of its Burger King chain, part of a plan to ignite growth there. Diageo Plc named Dave Lewis, known for his turnaround of UK grocer Tesco Plc, its new chief executive officer in a surprise move as the maker of Johnnie Walker seeks its own reboot after a period of turmoil. The BBC apologized for a misleading edit of remarks by Donald Trump that featured in a documentary last year, prompting a lawsuit threat by the US president and fresh questions about the future of Britain’s national broadcaster. Private equity firm Permira agreed to acquire JTC Plc, the London-listed provider of fund solutions and corporate services, for £2.3 billion ($3 billion). A landmark lithium deal between Chile’s SQM and state-owned Codelco cleared its final major hurdle with China granting conditional approval, paving the way for the venture to ramp up production. What Bloomberg strategists say…
“The equity rally on the back of a Senate agreement to end the shutdown affirms the point that a much longer closure would deal a serious blow to the S&P 500. Yet the government’s reopening is far from confirmed, and investors’ lingering preference to hedge downside could limit gains heading into next year.” -Kristine Aquino, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 rose 1.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.2% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8% The MSCI World Index rose 1.4% Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2.8% The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.9% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1563 The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3182 The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 154.03 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $105,759.45 Ether fell 0.5% to $3,561.8 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.11% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.67% Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.46% The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.59% The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.70% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $60.15 a barrel Spot gold rose 2.8% to $4,112.12 an ounce ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
