Greens profit from environment fears

Keystone

Climate change has become Swiss voters' biggest concern, according to a survey released two months before parliamentary elections.

The Green Party, currently the fifth-largest in Switzerland, looks set to capitalise on this to make gains at the polls in October.

The fifth election barometer carried out by the gfs.institute on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation – swissinfo’s parent company – shows that if votes were cast now, the Greens would gain 10.3 per cent.

This is a slight drop compared with the previous survey in June (10.9 per cent), but still 2.9 per cent more than in the last elections in 2003. This is a far higher increase than for any other political party over the same period.

For the first time voters have put environmental problems at the top of their list of concerns ahead of the elections. This is one of the reasons for the Greens’ continuing success, say the report’s authors.

“People vote for the Green Party primarily because of environmental issues,” they said.

But this also shows up the limits of the party. “Even among their own voters there is no further thematic identification with it,” added the authors.

Knock-on effects

The strength of the Green Party looks set to have knock-on effects for the four main parties.

If the 1.8 per cent for the Liberal Greens, who are on the right of the political spectrum, were counted, the Greens would come close to the centre-right Christian Democrats, who with 14.6 per cent (up 0.2 per cent on 2003) are the weakest of the four in the cabinet.

Their centre-right counterparts, the Radical Party, would gain 16.2 per cent of the votes (down 1.1 per cent).

Still clearly in the lead is the rightwing Swiss People’s Party at 26.2 per cent (down by 0.5 per cent).

In second place is the centre-left Social Democratic Party at 21.6 per cent, a drop of 1.7 per cent on 2003. One of the reasons for this, according to the authors, could be that the party has lost some voters to the Greens.

The two largest parties did well when it came to voters’ other top concerns – foreigners and integration – as they were considered the most competent in these areas.

But regional differences were still clear. The German-speaking Swiss considered the People’s Party as the best party for dealing with their concerns, whereas the French- and Italian-speaking Swiss favoured the Social Democrats.

Magic formula

The survey also quizzed voters on the composition of the cabinet. Currently this is formed according to the “magic formula” of seats shared out between the four main parties.

This allocates two seats each to the People’s Party, Social Democrats and Radicals, and one to the Christian Democrats.

According to the poll, almost a quarter of those surveyed gave their backing to a Green Party member of cabinet, replacing one of the Radicals. But more than a third were keen to see the status quo remain.

However, the survey remarked that even the possibility of a cabinet seat could help the Greens’ cause.

“At the present time this has a strong effect on the mobilisation of new voters,” said the authors.

swissinfo, based on a German article by Christian Raaflaub

Key facts

Main findings of the poll:
Swiss People’s Party: 26.2% (26.7% in 2003)
Social Democratic Party: 21.6% (23.3%)
Radical Party: 16.2% (17.3%)
Christian Democratic Party: 14.6% (14.4%)
The Green Party: 10.3% (7.4%)
Expected turnout: 45% (45.4)

In brief

The poll, carried out by the gfs.bern institute on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation – swissinfo’s parent company – is the fifth in a series of eight before the federal election on October 21.

A total of 2,029 people from the three main Swiss language regions were questioned between July 9-21 in the representative survey.

It covers only the views about the seats in the House of Representatives.

The error of margin is 2.2%.