Greenland tensions spark economic pessimism among Swiss analysts

Greenland crisis causes pessimism among analysts Keystone-SDA

A key indicator of the Swiss economy slipped into negative territory in January, likely dragged down by the Greenland crisis.

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The UBS CFA indicator dropped to -4.7 points in January, down from +6.0 in December, the bank said on Wednesday. UBS produces the monthly index with the CFA Society Switzerland, based on a survey of financial analysts.

+ Swiss stock market jolted by Greenland tensionsExternal link

Last year, the index plunged deep into negative territory amid US President Donald Trump’s policies, but returned to positive levels after the tariff deal in November.

UBS said the latest drop into negative territory was also likely linked to Trump. The survey was carried out at a time when tensions over Greenland were escalating, raising the risk of higher US tariffs on some European countries. Those discussions appear to have dampened analysts’ sentiment.

The index is calculated from the difference between analysts expecting the economic outlook to improve (18.6%) and those predicting it will worsen (23.3%). Most of the 42 respondents, however, expected no change in the overall situation.

Key interest rate expected to remain at 0%

The analysts were also asked for their specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecasts. On average, they expect growth of 1.1% this year, rising to 1.3% in 2027. “At those levels, economic growth would remain below its long‑term average,” UBS said.

+ WEF: Switzerland treads carefully with Trump as tariff deal looms

Almost 90% of those surveyed also expect inflation to stay between 0% and 1% in 2026, with a slight rise to an average of 0.4%, up from 0.2% last year. As a result, three‑quarters of the analysts believe the Swiss National Bank will leave its key interest rate unchanged at 0% in 2026, according to the statement.

The survey was conducted between January 15 and 21.

Translated from German by AI/sp

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