OECD expects only moderate Swiss economic growth

OECD expects only moderate economic growth for Switzerland Keystone-SDA

According to the OECD, the Swiss economy is likely to pick up only slightly in the coming years. The lower tariff rates in trade with the United States are improving the outlook slightly, but growth will be driven primarily by domestic consumption.

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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecasts that Switzerland’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 1.2% in both 2026 and 2027, as it writes in its Economic Outlook. According to the forecast, GDP growth is likely to be 1.1% in the year 2025.

The agreement with the US to reduce tariffs to 15% should strengthen the recovery in exports from 2026, the OECD believes. However, the increased uncertainty will weigh on investments in the coming years.

And it is precisely this ongoing global uncertainty that could lead to an even stronger Swiss franc, the study continues. This would worsen export prospects again.

Meanwhile, according to the OECD projections, the Swiss National Bank will keep the key interest rate unchanged at zero until 2027. This is because inflation will only rise slightly to 0.6% and 0.7% respectively in the next two years.

Conclude trade agreements

As usual, the organisation’s experts also have advice ready. For example, swift ratification of the agreements with the EU would secure market access in Europe and revitalise exports. New free trade agreements are also recommended for Switzerland.

The OECD also suggests structural reforms: harmonisation of regulations between the cantons, for example, would promote domestic competition and generate economies of scale.

Translated from German by DeepL/mga

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