Gold Hits High on US Shutdown Fears, Bonds Steady: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Gold touched a new record high and Treasuries held their gains as concerns mounted over a US government shutdown.

The precious metal, a traditional safe-haven asset, climbed above $3,839 an ounce. The commodity’s 46% rise so far this year is poised to be the best annual gain since 1979. Treasuries were little changed Tuesday after gaining across the curve in the prior session. A gauge of the dollar edged up after President Donald Trump set a 10% tariff on softwood timber and lumber imports into the US.

Asian shares rose 0.2% and are poised for a sixth consecutive month of gains, the longest winning streak since 2018. Zijin Gold International Co. surged 66% in its Hong Kong trading debut, while greater China shares more broadly fluctuated. Chinese equities are set for their best run of monthly gains in seven years.

Vice President JD Vance said he believes the US government is on track to shut down after Trump’s last-ditch meeting with top congressional leaders ahead of the Oct. 1 deadline ended without resolving Democrats’ demands.

Investors remain concerned that a shutdown could hinder some crucial data releases that they require to discern how the US economy is doing. That includes Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which would offer details on how the labor market is holding up and help the Federal Reserve decide on the path for rate cuts.

“Given the importance of the job market to the Fed’s rate-cutting decisions, risk that the September unemployment report could be delayed could add to the market’s anxiety over the direction of policy,” said Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab & Co.

Emerging-market assets climbed to start the week as the looming risk of a shutdown weighed on the dollar. The US Treasury 10-year yield declined to 4.14% — shutdowns are typically associated with gains for bonds because of their potential to restrain the economy.

Still, markets are not rushing to retrench risk after various episodes of US shutdown threats previously, Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Securities in Singapore, wrote in a note.

“For one, experience provides some consolation of narrowly averting shutdowns or at least disaster from previous episodes,” he wrote. “Crucially, markets fully expect that dysfunctional bipartisan dynamics will necessarily accentuate political brinksmanship.”

What Bloomberg strategists say…

To some extent gold’s gains slid under the radar because record highs for the precious metal are so common now as to be completely passe. But Monday’s 2% surge from already elevated levels does speak to a degree of angst about the risk for the shutdown to deliver a fresh bout of turmoil. That also boosts the potential for gold to drop sharply should America avoid a shutdown.

—Garfield Reynolds, MLIV Team Leader. For full analysis, click here.

Meanwhile, China’s factory activity extended its decline into a sixth month, the longest slump since 2019, as the economy descended into a slowdown after a growth spurt to start the year.

Elsewhere, Australia’s central bank will meet on Tuesday and is expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

In geopolitical developments, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said they had agreed to a 20-point plan designed to end the war in Gaza, though the prospects for peace remained unclear without the direct involvement of Hamas.

Corporate News:

Electronic Arts Inc. agreed to sell itself in the largest leveraged buyout on record to a group of investors that includes a firm managed by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund. Alphabet Inc.’s Google agreed to pay $24.5 million to resolve Trump’s claims that being banished from his YouTube channel after the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the US Capitol was illegal censorship, according to a court filing. Boeing Co. is planning a new single-aisle airplane that would succeed the 737 MAX, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 11:37 a.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix was little changed Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was little changed Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was little changed The Shanghai Composite rose 0.2% Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.1% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro was little changed at $1.1723 The Japanese yen was little changed at 148.66 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1313 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $114,539.04 Ether fell 0.6% to $4,202.55 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.14% Japan’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 1.635% Australia’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.31% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6% to $63.06 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,846.52 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Masaki Kondo and Alice French.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.