Seco lowers economic growth forecast for 2009
The Swiss government says the economy cannot escape the negative effects of the global financial crisis and has slightly lowered its growth forecast for 2009.
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco) said on Monday it now expects growth in 2009 to be 1.5 per cent, slightly lower than its previous forecast of 1.7 per cent.
Seco said in a statement that the “international financial crisis represents a considerable and difficult-to-quantify risk to the economy”.
However, it maintained its growth forecast for this year at 1.9 per cent.
Seco economists raised the inflation forecast for 2008 to 1.7 per cent from a previous forecast of 1.6 per cent, but left their 2009 forecast unchanged at 1.0 per cent.
In their assessment, they said economic trends had been favourable until the beginning of spring.
“The solid indicators of the real economy contrast starkly with the deep crisis that is shaking the financial markets. It seems difficult to believe that the Swiss economy can remain unaffected by these turbulences for much longer.”
Services
Seco said that exports of services, which had experienced a “real boom” in the past years, could be one of the sectors most affected.
It added that a combination of a strong Swiss franc and weakened demand in the United States and Europe would have a noticeable negative effect on exports.
Seco said domestic demand should remain stable in the short term, apart from investments in construction, which have been declining for some time.
It added that private consumption should remain a “solid pillar” of the Swiss economy thanks to the good health of the labour market.
The Swiss National Bank, which decided to leave its key target rate unchanged 2.75 per cent at its latest monetary policy meeting earlier this month, forecasts growth to slow to between 1.5 and two per cent this year.
In other economic news, the National Bank reported that Switzerland’s current account surplus in 2007 provisionally totalled SFr86 billion ($86.7 billion), exceeding the previous year’s figure by SFr14 billion.
It said strong economic performance in Switzerland and abroad as well as a weaker franc had led to high nominal growth of trade in goods and services, with exports and imports rising by 12 per cent and ten per cent respectively.
swissinfo with agencies
Seco: 1.9% and 1.5 %
UBS Wealth Management: 2.3% and 1.4%
Credit Suisse: 1.9% and 1.6%
Zurich Cantonal Bank: 1.9% and 2%
KOF Swiss Economic Institute: 2.1% and 2%
International Monetary Fund: 1.5% and 1.5%
OECD: 2% and 2%
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