Population cap initiative ‘will not stop Swiss Abroad from returning home’

Swissinfo

Should Switzerland cap its population at 10 million by strictly limiting immigration? In our “Let’s Talk” TV debate programme, we discuss the issues surrounding the Swiss People’s Party initiative that will be decided on June 14.

“The main aim of our initiative is to gain control over the influx of people into our country,” says Manfred Bühler, a lawmaker from the right-wing People’s Party, in our filmed “Let’s Talk” debate.

His party believes immigration is placing excessive pressure on Switzerland. It has therefore launched an initiative proposing to force the government to ensure that the permanent resident population does not exceed ten million before 2050. The proposal, which will go to a nationwide vote on June 14, would require the authorities to take action if the population reaches 9.5 million before then. The last official figure was 9.1 million (end of 2025).

>>Read our explainer below for more details on the “No to 10 million” immigration initiative:

Bühler acknowledges that introducing a population cap would be unprecedented. As we showed in this article, the only territory with legislation allowing it to limit its population is the Galapagos Islands, for environmental reasons. Bühler nevertheless argues that controlling who enters and leaves a country to settle or work there is standard practice in most parts of the world.

For the leftwing Social Democrat parliamentarian Jean Tschopp, however, the immigration initiative is out of step with demographic reality. He notes that the population will not continue growing indefinitely. “All demographers agree that the trend will reverse and that Switzerland’s total population is likely to start declining within 10 to 15 years,” he says.

A return to seasonal worker status?

The right-wing proposal includes several measures aimed at reducing immigration, notably tighter restrictions on provisional admissions for asylum-seekers and on family reunification. If these prove insufficient, the government would be required to terminate international agreements that contribute to demographic growth, including the free movement of persons agreement with the European Union.

Tschopp believes ending free movement would place Switzerland in a difficult position. “It would bring the current residence and work permit system to an end. We would be forced to return to a precarious seasonal-worker status to meet the needs of sectors already suffering from severe labour shortages,” he says.

>>Swiss parliamentarian Jean Tschopp fears the population cap initiative could lead to the termination of the free movement agreement with the EU:

For Bühler, the main priority is to be more selective. He points out that of the 80,000 people arriving in Switzerland each year, only half are employed. “We can manage with 30,000 to 40,000 people to meet the needs of the economy, while making greater use of the workforce already present in Switzerland, increasing employment rates and strengthening training for people who already live here,” he says.

But Tschopp warns: “If residence and work permits become harder to obtain, the number of cross-border commuters could rise, worsening traffic congestion.”

Bühler counters that some border regions are already under pressure because of the influx of cross-border workers, but says he is convinced many jobs could instead be filled by people already living in Switzerland.

Swiss pensions under pressure?

Most studies cited by the economics ministry conclude that immigration and free movement have had a positive effect on Swiss economic growth. Bühler, however, qualifies this assessment. “Growth in GDP per capita has slowed because there are more inhabitants. The available pie is being shared among more people,” he argues.

Tschopp, meanwhile, points out that foreign workers contribute far more to the Old Age and Survivors’ Insurance system (the state pension scheme known as OASI or AHV/AVS) than they receive in benefits. “These people are major contributors to our social security system. We need them to help offset the retirement of the baby boomer generation,” he says.

Bühler disagrees, arguing that other solutions must be found to finance pensions. “Relying on constant population growth to fund OASI is a dangerous game,” he warns.

A problem for Swiss abroad?

The “No to 10 million people!” immigration initiative has raised concerns within the Organisation of the Swiss Abroad (OSA). The group opposes the proposal, fearing it could weaken the legal status of around 500,000 Swiss citizens living in EU countries.

>>Bühler insists Swiss citizens abroad will not be affected by the initiative:

However, Bühler sought to reassure voters: “Although the Swiss Abroad are not explicitly mentioned in the text, our initiative would not prevent them from returning home.” If the initiative is approved at the ballot box, he promises the issue would be addressed in the implementing legislation debated by parliament.

Tschopp remains unconvinced and believes the initiative could create problems for Swiss citizens living abroad. “For example, a Swiss woman who moves to France or Spain, marries an EU citizen and later wishes to return to Switzerland with him could face difficulties if her spouse does not hold a Swiss passport,” he says.

>>Watch the latest “Let’s Talk” episode (in French) below:

Edited by Samuel Jaberg/sb