Where should you live if world chaos breaks out? Switzerland

Where is it best to live if world chaos breaks out? In Switzerland Keystone-SDA

Which countries are best able to overcome a major global crisis? The surprise winners include European and small countries, according to a new ranking. In first place: Switzerland.

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The ranking, which was reported by the Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), is called the Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index and was compiled by Henley & Partners, a London-based, consultancy firm for so-called “golden visas” and citizenships. It attempts to answer the question: assuming chaos really does break out in the world, where is the best place to live to protect yourself and your assets?

The question is less theoretical than it might seem at first glance. According to Henley & Partners, the number of millionaires changing residence is currently higher than ever. Also because the scenario of a dramatic crisis isn’t so far-fetched: even optimists wonder what could go wrong in the current phase of changing planetary balances. Sometimes all it takes is a little for a nefarious dynamic to be triggered.

For example, in April after US President Donald Trump’s so-called ‘Liberation Day’ the financial markets were dangerously close to such a turning point, says the NZZ. Even during the storming of the Capitol in Washington in January 2021, the situation came close to degenerating uncontrollably. A global crisis could also occur if a heavily indebted western country got into financial difficulties or if China attacked Taiwan.

“The world is affected by Darwinian competition,” says Christian Kälin, chairman of the board of Henley & Partners. “But just as in the animal and plant kingdoms, even among countries it is not the strongest who manage change best, but those who are best able to adapt,” the Swiss-born executive continues in statements reported by the Zurich newspaper.

For the new ranking, Henley & Partners relied on its own data on migration behaviour and the preferences of wealthy individuals. It also used an in-depth analysis of economic and social conditions in individual countries by Alphageo, a Singapore-based company, on the other.

“To be at the top of our ranking, a country has to be exposed to minimal risks and at the same time demonstrate high resilience,” Parag Khanna, founder of Alphageo, tells the newspaper. At the top is Switzerland, which also occupies a similar position in many competitiveness surveys. However, the current analysis is based on a much broader range of factors: “We did not only assess economic dynamism, but also political stability, legal certainty and climate risks,” notes the 48-year-old Indian who has travelled to more than 150 countries.

Paradoxically, however, in the event of a global crisis, federal stability could also become a handicap. “In a way, it is a luxury problem: if there is a lack of confidence worldwide, huge amounts of capital could flow into Switzerland, causing an uncontrolled appreciation of the franc”.

What is striking about Henley & Partners’ ranking, according to NZZ, is the excellent performance of many European countries. It is precisely the old continent, which suffers from modest growth and is also under great pressure in trade disputes, that occupies nine of the top ten places: only Singapore, in fourth place, manages to break into this European phalanx.

After Switzerland comes Denmark and Norway. After Singapore, from fifth place onwards are Sweden, Luxembourg, Finland, the Netherlands, Germany and Iceland. The United States is 24th, France 29th, Italy is 36th, just ahead of China (37th), Russia is 69th, and India is only 104th: climate risk weighs heavily here.

Another interesting aspect is that the countries at the top of the ranking are all small. Khanna explains this phenomenon by the fact that they are generally more agile and better able to adapt to change. On the opposite side, at the bottom of the list, are Pakistan (148th), Haiti (149th) and Lebanon (150th).

The world is currently experiencing several overlapping shocks, says Kälin: in addition to trade disputes, the artificial intelligence revolution and global warming, for example, are all concerns. “The ability to adapt is the new buzzword: policy must therefore be able to strengthen society’s resilience in the face of such upheavals,” he says. The new Risk and Resilience Index now shows that Switzerland and many European countries are on the right track despite the many negative reports and assessments triggered by the tariff dispute, concludes the NZZ.

Translated from Italian by DeepL/jdp

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