Trump tariffs could cost Switzerland CHF17.5bn, economist warns

Economists stress there could be serious consequences on businesses and economies worldwide under Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Keystone-SDA

An escalating tariff dispute under Donald Trump's US administration could cost the Swiss economy up to CHF17.5 billion ($22 billion) in 2026, according to KOF economist Jan-Egbert Sturm.

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This would correspond to around CHF2,000 per person in Switzerland (population 8.8 million). This estimate is based on the scenario that Trump sticks to the tariffs he announced in spring. “Uncertainty is poison for the economy,” the director of the Economic Research Centre at ETH Zurich told Blick on Monday.

“For example, we don’t know what will happen on July 9, which tariffs will actually be imposed and how high they will be,” he declared.

The lack of predictability is slowing down investment, particularly among export-oriented companies that do not know which trade rules will apply to the US market in future.

Forecast: 1% higher wages in 2026

On April 2, Trump imposed punitive tariffs on imports from all over the world, including 31% against Switzerland, but immediately suspended them until July 9. Since April 5, however, an additional tariff of at least 10% has applied to all imports. The Swiss government recently negotiated with the US government to avert higher tariffs.

Despite these risks, Sturm is confident overall: he expects the Swiss economy to grow by 1.4% in 2025, supported by robust domestic consumption. Unemployment should rise slightly to 3% and wages should increase by 1%.

Sturm believes the Swiss economy is flexible and well positioned to absorb global shocks. Even if it is currently “slightly below average”, he told Blick.

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Translated from German by DeepL/sb

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