Central Asian glaciers resisted climate change. That may be ending.
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Central Asian glaciers resisted climate change. That may be ending.
Series World's glaciers,
Episode 6:
The glaciers of the Pamirs in Central Asia were among the few in the world that remained stable—or even grew—as others melted. According to a new study, this anomaly may have come to an end, with consequences for millions of people who depend on glacier meltwater in the summer.
With peaks exceeding 7,000 meters, Central Asia is home to some of the largest expanses of ice on the planet. The region encompassing the Pamir and Hindu Kush Mountain ranges is known as the “third pole” because, after the Arctic and Antarctic, it is the third largest ice reserve in the world.
Unlike the polar ice caps, some glaciers in the Pamirs, in Tajikistan, seemed immune to rising global temperatures. Over the past thirty years, the former Soviet republic has lost more than a thousand of its approximately 14,000 glaciersExternal link, but several remained stable.
However, this exception, known as the “Pamir-Karakoram anomaly,” may have come to an end. “They were the only glaciers in the world in good condition, and some even increased their mass since the early 2000s,” Francesca Pellicciotti, a glaciologist at the Austrian Institute of Science and Technology (ISTA), told Swissinfo.
The most recent observations suggest that the glaciers now appear to be retreating, says Pellicciotti, who previously worked for the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL). The results of her research in Tajikistan, which began in 2021 with the contribution of Swiss institutions, were published in September in the journal Nature Communication Earth & EnvironmentExternal link.
These glaciers are a crucial water resource for people and agriculture in the region, especially during the summer months when precipitation is scarce. They provide fresh water to about 80 million people in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.
Glaciers, local melting and global impacts
The World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMSExternal link) collects and analyses data on the mass balance, volume, area and length of the world’s glaciers. It was established in 1986 and is based at the University of Zurich, Switzerland. The WGMS has a network of national correspondents in more than 40 countries.
During the International Year for the Conservation of Glaciers, we contacted some of them to find out about the state of glaciers in their region, the consequences of ice melt and adaptation strategies.
The end of the growing glacier anomaly?
With her research in Tajikistan, Pellicciotti hopes to both monitor the evolution of glacier masses and understand why certain glaciers have grown despite rising global temperatures.
Some studies suggest the influence of katabatic winds—cold air currents that form along the slopes of larger, steeper glaciers. These winds lower the air temperature above the glacier and could slow its melting.
The international research group has studied the evolution of the glacier of the Kyzylsu catchment in the northwestern Pamirs. Direct field measurements—of snowfall, mass balance, and water resources—enabled researchers, through simulations, to reconstruct the glacier’s behaviour from 1999 to 2023, charting growth and retreat.
“We noticed a significant turning point in 2018: from that year, the glacier began to lose mass,” says Pellicciotti. The anomaly was no longer keeping the glacier healthy.
Satellite data had already pointed in this direction on a regional scale. However, the study led by ISTA identified a possible cause for the decline: a significant decrease in snowfall, and therefore in snow accumulation on the glacier.
Pellicciotti emphasises that the limited monitoring of this and other glaciers in Central Asia, especially after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, makes it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about the end of the Pamir-Karakoram anomaly. “We still cannot be certain that what began in 2018 is truly a lasting trend and not just a natural fluctuation,” she notes.
The next goal of the project is to extend the historical reconstruction back to the 1970s and to simulate the glacier’s future evolution. “Only then will we know if we are facing a point of no return that could also affect other glaciers in the region,” she says.
No more glaciers above 4,600 meters
The Pamir-Karakoram anomaly is an exception in a region that has seen increasingly rapid melting. In the Tian Shan mountain range, which stretches from Uzbekistan to China, glaciers are retreating at a rate four times faster than the global averageExternal link.
In Kyrgyzstan, the total ice area has decreased by about 16% since the 1970s and could be halved by 2050, according to Ryskul Usubaliev, head of the Central Asian Institute of Applied Geosciences and national correspondent for the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMSExternal link), based in Switzerland. Glaciers on ridges below 4,500–4,600 meters are destined to disappear.
Atmospheric warming and declining snowfall are not the only causes of glacier retreat. Substances deposited on the glacier surface, such as dust from the desert and arid regions of Central Asia, also contribute to the melting. These sediments reduce the ice’s ability to reflect sunlight, increasing heat absorption.
Water scarcity could worsen cross-border conflicts
The glaciers of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan feed the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, the two main rivers of Central Asia. These rivers are the region’s primary water resource and are essential for irrigating fields and producing hydroelectric power.
According to the United Nations World Water Development ReportExternal link, published in May, climate change, intensive agriculture, and population growth could worsen water shortages in the downstream countries of Central Asia.
Glacier melt has a direct impact on ecology, water reserves, and the economy, Usubaliev explained in an interview in 2024External link. Water scarcity could exacerbate cross-border conflicts. Upstream countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan want to fill their reservoirs to produce electricity and heat homes in winter. In contrast, downstream countries like Uzbekistan need water to irrigate fields and vast cotton plantations. The reduction in glacier water could jeopardise cross-border agreements for water resource management.
Artificial glaciers and reservoirs
In recent years, local engineers and NGOs launched experiments to counter water scarcity with artificial glaciers. These ice structures allow water to be stored during winter and gradually released in summer.
Water from mountain springs is channeled through underground pipes to lower-altitude areas, where, as it emerges from the ground, it freezes and forms ice accumulations. In Kyrgyzstan, more than 30 artificial glaciers have already been created.
According to Francesca Pellicciotti, this relatively simple and inexpensive solution can be an option for fighting water scarcity, but only on a small scale. “It would make much more sense and be more effective to store water in artificial reservoirs,” she says.
Central Asian governments are building new artificial reservoirs, and Kyrgyzstan alone plans to build more than a hundred by 2028External link. Upstream, countries like Uzbekistan are experimenting with more efficient irrigation systemsExternal link with the support of the United Nations and the European Union.
The goal of these and other projects-which is also the main challenge in central Asia-is to collect every drop of water and use it sparingly.
Edited by Gabe Bullard/Vdv
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