Swiss economy grew slightly at tail end of 2025

The Swiss economy grew slightly at the end of last year Keystone-SDA

The Swiss economy improved slightly in the fourth quarter of last year, with gross domestic product (GDP) up 0.2% on the previous quarter, according to an initial estimate from the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (Seco).

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Economists surveyed by the AWP agency were expecting Swiss GDP to grow in the same range, forecasting an increase of between 0.1% and 0.4% in the final quarter.

+ What lies ahead for Switzerland? Economic outlook 2026

In the third quarter of 2025, the Swiss economy was weighed down by a sharp decline in the chemicals and pharmaceuticals industries due to customs duties, causing GDP (adjusted for sporting events) to contract by 0.5%, after rising by 0.2% in the previous quarter.

The figures for October to the end of December “show that economic activity is still fragile”, said Arthur Jurus, investment director at Oddo BHF Switzerland. For Thomas Gitzel, Chief Economist at VP Bank, “the decline recorded in the third quarter cannot be offset, which shows once again that export-oriented countries are finding it difficult to cope in the current environment”.

Over the year as a whole, the country’s economy nevertheless recorded growth of 1.4%, after 1.2% the previous year and 1.3% in 2023. “These figures are well below the country’s average growth rate, which has been 1.8% since 1981”, notes Seco in a press release, while highlighting the fact that Swiss GDP in 2025 was 11.2% higher than in 2019, the last year before the coronavirus crisis.

Tariffs have weighed

While the export industry was held back by the difficult international environment, the services sector saw above-average growth by historical standards.

The pharmaceutical sector, which is less exposed to the economic situation and exchange rates, once again posted growth in value added last year, “although this did not completely offset the declines recorded in other industrial sectors”.

+ Swiss trade surplus with US grew in 2025 despite tariffs

“Since the beginning of 2025, the increase in US customs duties and the resulting uncertainty have also had an impact on developments”, notes Seco. It notes that the Swiss franc appreciated sharply last April and then remained high compared with its historic level.

By international comparison, GDP growth in the US in 2025 is expected to be significantly higher than in Switzerland, at 2.2%. However, the difference has narrowed somewhat compared to previous years, notes Seco. In the eurozone, growth was closer to that of Switzerland, at 1.5%.

No immediate recovery

For 2026, the Swiss GDP forecasts (adjusted for sporting events) of the banks J. Safra Sarasin and Raiffeisen are +1%, those of Oddo BHF +1.2%, while the research institute BAK Economics expects +0.9%.

+ Franc’s relentless rise alarms Swiss companies

The appreciation of the Swiss franc should support purchasing power thanks to lower import prices, according to Seco. Nevertheless, growth will remain below its long-term average due to a more uncertain global environment, weaker foreign demand and the continuing effects of trade tensions.

“These projections paint a picture of a resilient Swiss economy, but one that will not see a strong recovery in the short term,” sums up Arthur Jurus.

The full, updated data, which will be available at the end of February, could alter some forecasts.

Adapted from French by AI/mga

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