Poll says neck-and-neck race over state funds for private media

Local and regional papers with a limited print run are due to benefit from extra public funding but opponents argue the state should not intervene in the free market. Keystone/Jean-Christophe Bott

The Swiss government and parliament could be heading for defeat in votes later this month about extra state funds for the media and corporate tax breaks, according to a new opinion poll.

A proposal to ban advertising for tobacco products targeting young consumers appears to be on track to win a majority, defying recommendations by the authorities.

But plans for an outright ban on animal testing, another issue on the ballot sheet on February 13, looks set to fail.

“The race isn’t over yet, but a triple defeat for the authorities is within reach,” says Lukas Golder, co-director of the GfS Bern research instituteExternal link, which carried out the poll on behalf of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation.

But such an outcome is not likely to have any major political or personal consequences but are part of the Switzerland’s system of direct democracy.

A parliamentary decision to boost state funding mainly for print products and online news platforms is arguably the most controversial issue on the ballot sheet.

Opponents from the political right to the centre who forced the referendum have a slight advantage against the supporters of the reform mainly on the left. But pollsters say both camps merely managed to consolidate their positions over the past four weeks without gaining ground.

“We have seen a polarisation and there are no clear indications if either side might be able to tip the balance,” says GfS Bern political scientist Martina Mousson.

It could come down to a few thousand votes to make the difference and the ability of the campaigners notably on the right to encourage the grassroots to participate in the vote.

“In other words, the decisive factor to sway the outcome might be the trust in the government,” says Mousson. “And it’s safe to say: it’s likely to be tight.”

More money for companies

The data from the opinion poll allows more precise conclusions about the vote on a government proposal, approved by parliament last year, to abolish stamp duty on equity capital.

It is a rather technical financial issue which is primarily relevant for companies looking for fresh capital.

Over the past few weeks, opponents have won additional support and are 14 percentage points ahead.

Political scientist Golder says a first poll already found considerable opposition against the legal reform and supporters have been struggling to change things round.

“Quite on the contrary. The left appears to have been successful in its campaign to simplify a complex issue with a simple slogan about injustice at the hands of ordinary taxpayers, while large companies benefit from tax breaks,” he notes.

Tobacco advertising ban

It doesn’t look more promising for the government, parliament and the business community in the vote about tight restrictions for advertising of tobacco products.

Less than two weeks away from voting day, supporters from health organisations, supported by the political left, are nearly 30 percentage points clear according to pollsters.

If confirmed in the ballot on February 13, it would be the second health-related proposal to win voters’ approval within four months.

Last November, a people’s initiative to boost conditions for healthcare personnel in Switzerland had the upper hand.

Pollsters say opponents of a tobacco advert ban were able to narrow the gap particularly in the main German-speaking part of the country, but their campaign has lacked the necessary drive.

Golder says supporters are more likely to come out on top unless there is a last-minute rush to the ballot boxes by voters in rural areas and typical voters of centrist parties.

This could potentially result in a scenario where the initiative fails because it falls short a necessary majority of the 26 cantons despite an overall majority of total votes.

This special rule applies in cases of constitutional amendments and was the stumbling block notably for an initiative on corporate responsibility in 2020.

Animal testing ban

It’s perhaps surprising that an initiative for an outright ban on animal testing stands literally no chance of winning a majority at the ballot box.

“There can be no doubt about the outcome,” says Golder.

The initiative started off with yes-share of 45% in the first poll four weeks ago but dropped to 26% in the latest survey.

The decline is partly explained by the fact that the campaign has been very limited, and that the initiative committee wasn’t able to win the support of a major political party or organisation.

Respondents in the poll said Switzerland has done enough to protect animals and the proposed outright ban on testing would harm the country’s research community, according to experts.

Polling details

Pollsters interviewed 7,660 Swiss citizens from all language regions across the country and among the expatriate Swiss community for the second of two nationwide surveys.

The survey is based on online responses as well as telephone interviews, both with fixed line and mobile phone users, and was carried out from January 19-26.

The margin of error is 2.8%.

The poll was commissioned by the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) – swissinfo.ch’s parent company – and carried out by the GfS Bern research institute.