Stocks Hold at Record Highs Before Megacap Results: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders gearing up for the start of the high-stakes megacap earnings season kept stocks at all-time highs, with investors also parsing the latest tariff developments. Bond yields and the dollar fell.

While the S&P 500 barely budged, more than 400 of its shares rose. A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” giants halted a nine-day advance, but Tesla Inc. and Alphabet Inc. climbed before their results. D.R. Horton Inc. led a rally in homebuilders. Kohl’s Corp. surged as much as 105% — before paring gains to 38% — in a move reminiscent of the meme era. In late hours, Texas Instruments Inc. gave a disappointing forecast.

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Big tech’s strength will be on full display over the next few weeks as the group begins unveiling quarterly earnings. The lion’s share of S&P 500 earnings growth continues to come from beneficiaries of advancements in artificial intelligence. 

The Magnificent Seven companies are expected to post a combined 14% rise in second-quarter profits, while earnings for the rest of the US equity benchmark are predicted to be relatively flat, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.

“Tech heavyweights remain critical to market health,” said Lauren Goodwin at New York Life Investments. “We expect AI-driven firms to continue anchoring tech sector growth. AI adoption at the corporate level is improving, but the application layer of this technology is only just being tested.”

On the trade front, President Donald Trump unveiled an agreement with the Philippines setting a 19% tariff on the country’s exports. Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney sought to cool expectations about reaching a deal in the next 10 days, but said he’s looking to stabilize the relationship with the US.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for their third round of trade talks aimed at extending a tariff truce and widening the discussions. 

Bessent told Fox Business he sees no reason for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to step down. Meantime, Trump stressed his belief that the Fed’s benchmark rate should be 3 percentage points lower. Bessent, in the same Oval Office event, said that “based on the way they cut rates last fall, they should be cutting rates now.”

“We expect market volatility to pick up in the lead-up to the August tariff deadline, with threats to Federal Reserve independence and geopolitical uncertainty lingering in the background,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.

Bank of America Corp. clients were net buyers of US equities in the week ended last Friday, with purchases most pronounced among individual investors, followed by hedge funds.

BofA clients funneled $1.8 billion into US stocks last week, with buying across all size segments, the team led by equity and quantitative strategist Jill Carey Hall wrote Tuesday in research note.

“Is this running of the bulls with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs sustainable?” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler. “The weight of the technical evidence suggests that breadth remains bullish and we would welcome ‘healthy’ pullbacks of less than 5% to add to positions.”

What Bloomberg Strategists say…

“An ugly start to US equity trading is far from across the board. The frothier tech and growth stocks are leading declines, but value stocks and defensive sectors are up on the day still. Coupled with the decline in bond yields, this looks like the market paring a little risk, perhaps ahead of Tesla and Alphabet earnings on Wednesday.” – Sebastian Boyd, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. 

For the full analysis, click here.

Corporate Highlights:

• Microsoft Corp. accused Chinese state-sponsored hackers of using flaws in its SharePoint document management software in a hacking campaign that has targeted businesses and government agencies around the world.
• OpenAI and Oracle Corp. announced they will develop 4.5 gigawatts of additional US data center capacity in an expanded partnership, furthering a massive plan to power artificial intelligence workloads.
• ASM International NV’s second-quarter orders missed expectations, as some chipmakers’ struggles undermined demand for its semiconductor equipment.
• Hershey Co. is raising prices on its candy due to historically high cocoa costs.
• Lockheed Martin Corp. caught investors off guard with $1.6 billion in charges and a possible tax hit that sent its stock tumbling, the latest setback for the defense giant whose popular F-35 jet faces criticism over cost overruns and delays.
• Northrop Grumman Corp. raised its earnings guidance for the full year after getting a boost from its Sentinel ballistic missile and B-21 bomber programs.
• RTX Corp. lowered its full-year profit outlook as the company digests the impact of tariffs that have roiled the aerospace industry, even as strong demand boosts sales above Wall Street’s expectations.
• General Motors Co. earned $2.53 per share on an adjusted basis, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of $2.33 but short of the $3.06 it made a year ago. GM’s profits also suffered from higher warranty costs and a buildup in inventory of electric vehicles.
• Coca-Cola Co. posted second-quarter sales growth that beat Wall Street expectations as consumers continue to pay higher prices for the company’s soft drinks.
• Philip Morris International Inc.’s shipments of its Zyn nicotine pouches accelerated by less than analysts had expected.
• Synovus Financial Corp., a regional bank in the southeastern US, is weighing options including a potential merger after drawing interest, people familiar with the matter said.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
• The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
• The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
• Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.5%
• The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.8%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
• The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1751
• The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3532
• The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 146.57 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin rose 2% to $119,300.11
• Ether fell 2.3% to $3,670.08

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.34%
• Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.59%
• Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 4.57%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $66.21 a barrel
• Spot gold rose 1% to $3,431.59 an ounce

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