US Inflation to Pick Up After Muddy November CPI

(Bloomberg) — US consumers probably experienced only a modest pickup in inflation as 2025 drew to a close, consistent with price pressures that are gradually abating.

The core consumer price index, regarded as a measure of underlying inflation because it strips out volatile food and energy costs, is seen rising 2.7% in December from a year earlier. That’s just a touch more than the 2.6% annual advance in November, which was the smallest since early 2021.

On a monthly basis, economists expect 0.3% increases in both overall and core prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics wasn’t able to publish month-over-month changes in the previous CPI report, which was delayed by the longest-ever government shutdown.

Economists said the November report, which showed a broad cooling of inflation, was distorted by the agency’s inability to collect most prices in October, as well as its assumption that key rent indexes were essentially unchanged for the month.

While that culminated in sizable downward pressure on the November figures, the December report, due on Tuesday, has the potential to reverse that bias.

The absence of clean readings on inflation, as well as signs the US labor market is stabilizing after a run of weak payrolls figures, help explain why Federal Reserve officials are expected to hold the line on interest rates in the near-term.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“We think the CPI report will spur some false narratives. We expect the December print to be hot — but mostly because of an unwinding of some of the downward bias in November’s print. Some analysts may take the hot reading as confirmation of resurgent inflation, but we think that’s a wrong take. We agree that the November report exaggerated the slowdown in inflation, possibly by some 20 basis points. But we also think many retailers have been slashing prices and tariff pass-through is peaking, and has already peaked for some goods.”

—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Chris G. Collins, Alex Tanzi and Troy Durie, economists. For full analysis, click here

New York Fed President John Williams on Monday kicks off a busy calendar of appearances by US central bankers. Others set to offer remarks on the economy in the coming week include Alberto Musalem, Anna Paulson, Michelle Bowman and Philip Jefferson.

Meanwhile, consumer spending in the fourth quarter is proving resilient. Government data due on Wednesday is expected to show another solid advance in retail sales. Excluding auto dealers, economists project a 0.4% increase in November, matching the previous month’s gain.

Other reports in the coming week include October new-home sales, the November producer price index, and December industrial production and home resales.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the US Looking north, Statistics Canada will release data on securities transactions after a surge in foreign investment in Canadian equities and bonds. It will also publish manufacturing and wholesale sales figures. Travel data are expected to show a continued drop in Canadian trips to the US, while sub‑provincial population estimates will point to the impact of tighter immigration policies.

Elsewhere, Indian inflation, growth data from Germany and the UK, and a likely no-change decision on borrowing costs in South Korea will be among the week’s highlights. Investors will also be watching for any comments from Group of Seven finance ministers, who are meeting in Washington at the start of the week.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

Asia

Asia’s data calendar will give policymakers and investors fresh clues on how growth and inflation dynamics are evolving, with key releases from China, Japan and Australia testing whether recent trends are gaining traction.

The week opens with China’s financial data for December, including aggregate financing and new yuan loans. Trade and foreign direct investment figures later in the week will provide further clarity on the health of the Chinese economy.

India takes center stage with December inflation on Monday. The report will influence how investors read the balance of risks for the Reserve Bank of India, which cut its key rate by 25 basis points in December, to 5.25%. On Thursday, India releases unemployment and trade figures.

Attention then pivots to Australia, where ANZ job advertisements and household indicators will help shape expectations about the central bank’s next move. Westpac’s consumer confidence survey on Tuesday comes after Reserve Bank officials have signaled an end to the current easing cycling, reiterating a cautious stance as price pressures stay elevated.

Japan’s heavy midweek calendar is a focal point for markets assessing whether the Bank of Japan will remain on its hiking path. Balance of payments and trade figures will offer insight into the impact of the weak yen on exports and income flows. Producer price data is due later in the week.

The Bank of Korea is expected to hold its policy settings steady on Thursday, with the focus on whether authorities may signal the easing cycle has run its course.

South Korea also releases labor market and trade price data, while New Zealand’s employment and building permits may cast light on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s potential policy stance.

Southeast Asia rounds out the week with a gross domestic product update from Malaysia, reserve data from Thailand, and non-oil exports from Singapore.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia Europe, Middle East, Africa

Germany will take the spotlight with what’s traditionally the first statistical estimate of full-year growth for any G-7 country. The 2025 data, due on Thursday, will give an indication of its performance in the fourth quarter, when green shoots may have begun to sprout in Europe’s biggest economy.

Recent data showing the largest jump in factory orders in a year, as well as an unexpected third month of gains in industrial production, signal that a recovery could be taking hold. Still, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that parts of the economy remain in a “very critical state.”

In the wider euro zone, industrial production numbers for November, also on Thursday, will offer a glimpse of the strength of growth across the region.

France, Spain and Italy will all release final inflation numbers toward the end of the week, offering details that will feed into a fuller gauge for the currency area.

An initial estimate published on Wednesday showed price growth in the euro region exactly at the European Central Bank’s 2% goal. Vice President Luis de Guindos is among a handful of ECB officials set to make appearances.

In the UK, monthly GDP data may show growth resumed in November after a surprise contraction at the start of the quarter. That report is scheduled for Thursday. Bank of England officials speaking the previous day include Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and rate-setter Alan Taylor.

Russian data on Friday is likely to show slower inflation, though the central bank has expressed concern it may not be sustainable amid elevated expectations, the potential impact from an increase in value-added tax, and higher regulated tariffs. At their last decision, officials warned that “monetary policy will remain tight for a long period.”

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA A few monetary decisions are on the calendar:

In Serbia on Monday, officials will reveal if they’re extending a period of steady rates that’s lasted for more than a year. Two days later, Poland’s central bank will weigh whether to cut borrowing costs for a fifth straight meeting after another downward inflation surprise. Angolan policymakers will likely reduce rates on Wednesday for a third time in a row as price growth continues to slow. Latin America

A light week kicks off with central bank readouts in Brazil and Chile. Banco Central do Brasil’s most recent Focus survey saw a tick up in its 2026 inflation estimate, while expectations in Chile were modestly lower and showed convergence with the central bank’s target.

Both the monthly and annual prints in Argentina’s December consumer prices report, to be posted on Tuesday, may have drifted slightly lower.

A pickup in consumer prices in November snapped an 18-month run of lower annual readings, after inflation hit 289.4% in April 2024.

December’s forecast readings strongly suggest that the rapid, headline grabbing success of President Javier Milei’s inflation fight since taking office in late 2023 are history — a far slower pace of disinflation is on the cards for the year ahead.

In Peru, the December jobs report for Lima and November GDP-proxy data are both due. The unemployment rate in Peru’s capital has been below 6% since August, while economic activity has been running near long-term trends.

Brazil’s economy has cooled under pressure from the central bank’s take-no-prisoners monetary policy — keeping the key rate near a two-decade high of 15% since mid-2025.

The early consensus sees a moderate uptick in growth from October, even as Latin America’s biggest economy lost steam into year-end.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America –With assistance from Swati Pandey, Laura Dhillon Kane, Robert Jameson, Simon Lee, Piotr Skolimowski, Greg Sullivan and Monique Vanek.

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