Study outlines five scenarios for Switzerland in 2100
From a high-tech society to social disintegration: researchers have outlined five possible futures for Switzerland and calculated what they would mean for the climate.
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According to the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), it is not possible to predict exactly what Switzerland will look like at the end of the century. Nevertheless, it is important to know possible social development paths, the research centre said on Tuesday. This is because social, economic and political developments influence resource consumption, climate change and infrastructure requirements, among other things.
In order to make such developments tangible, the WSL team developed five possible future paths for Switzerland. They describe different forms of coexistence, economic activity and political action up to the year 2100.
The five future scenarios
To develop the scenarios, the WSL team held discussions with around 60 scientists from 20 research institutions. A computer programme calculated consistent scenarios from the results.
Three of the five scenarios, the so-called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Switzerland, were based on the global models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These range from a highly technologised society with renewable energies to a future characterised by state and economic disintegration and a deeply divided society in which an elite faces an impoverished majority.
Two further scenarios have been developed specifically for Switzerland. One describes a country that relies on fossil fuels for a long time and is only confronted with the costs of a severely damaged environment towards the end of the century. The other scenario outlines a society that prioritises cohesion and well-being over economic success.
No probabilities
WSL geographer Lena Gubler emphasises that none of the scenarios is more likely than another. “It’s about exploring variants of what the future could look like, based on if-then considerations, and not about saying anything about probability,” she said in the press release.
A new publication from the National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) now presents the modelled greenhouse gas emissions for each scenario up to the year 2100.
Adapted from German by AI/ts
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