Global Stock Rally Resumes, Oil Dips on Iran Talks: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — A rally in global equities resumed after a brief pause, as signs Iran may join talks with the US added to optimism over progress in the Middle East ahead of a looming ceasefire deadline. Oil declined.
The MSCI All Country World Index climbed 0.1% on Tuesday, as easing geopolitical tensions and a revival in the artificial intelligence trade bolstered Asian equities. A 11-day rally in the gauge — the best streak in five years — stumbled on Monday as a turbulent weekend in the Middle East cast doubts on peace talks. South Korean stocks rose to a record, while Apple Inc. slipped in late US trading after naming John Ternus its next CEO.
Equity-index futures signaled Asian gains may carry into Europe and Wall Street.
Global crude oil benchmark Brent fell 0.7% to $94.81 a barrel as expectations that diplomacy will prevail ahead of the two-week ceasefire deadline lifted sentiment. Treasuries and a gauge of the dollar were little changed.
Attention is shifting to whether the US and Iran can resume negotiations in Pakistan to calm strains and reopen the Strait of Hormuz after an initial round in Islamabad ended without a deal. The dollar has dropped over the past three weeks and a number of equity gauges have recouped war-related losses as markets price in easing tensions, cheaper oil and stronger economic growth.
“Going into peace talks is clearly a positive sign that we are going to have some kind of resolution,” said Noriko Chen, a portfolio manager for equities at Capital Group. “While we expect inflation to be running a little bit higher than we have seen in the recent past, we don’t think it will end up having a big impact on the global economy.”
President Donald Trump said he’s not likely to extend the two-week ceasefire with Iran, increasing the urgency for negotiators to conclude a deal to end the war. Trump said the ceasefire will expire Wednesday evening, Washington time.
Details about the next negotiating session, expected to take place in Pakistan, started to come into focus on Monday. Iran is also sending a team, according to people familiar with the plans who declined to be identified, although it is not clear who would lead the delegation.
Meanwhile, transits through the Strait of Hormuz were reduced to a trickle as Iran tightened control in retaliation for strikes. On Friday, weeks of paralysis appeared to end, with Tehran saying it would reopen the waterway, before reversing course during the weekend as the US maintained a naval blockade and attacked an Iranian ship.
Three vessels — two cargo ships and a fuel tanker — appeared to be attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz early on Tuesday as US and Iranian blockades remained in place.
What Bloomberg Strategists Say…
“The ongoing recovery in Asian equities is tracking an eerily similar path to the post-tariff rebound of April 2025. The structural consequences for global economic growth and inflation continue to compound with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, but regional stocks will likely continue to ignore those warnings flashing from the bond markets as long as earnings expectations trend higher.”
— David Savage, Macro Squawk. For full analysis, click here.
In other corners of the market, gold dropped 0.6% to about $4,800 an ounce. Silver tumbled 1% to about $78.90 an ounce, while Bitcoin declined to about $75,750.
In Asia, tech stocks led the gains, with MSCI’s technology index for the region rising 2.4% to extend its year-to-date advance to more than 38%. Earlier, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index advanced, notching a 14th straight session in the green — a winning streak that it has exceeded just once, in 2014.
“AI is back in focus,” said Fabien Yip, a market analyst at IG International. “Asia tech being a core supplier of hardware is riding the wave higher amid the overall risk-on environment.”
While investors remain focused on developments in the Middle East, attention may also turn to Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Reserve. Warsh is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Committee at 10 a.m. Washington time on Tuesday.
“I believe that monetary policy independence is earned — and better policy decisions crafted — by steering clear of distractions,” according to a copy of his prepared remarks viewed by Bloomberg. “I am committed to ensuring that the conduct of monetary policy remains strictly independent.”
Corporate Highlights:
Amazon.com Inc. is investing an additional $5 billion in Anthropic PBC, and may inject $20 billion more over time, a deal that deepens the companies’ ties in an increasingly competitive artificial intelligence industry. Victory Giant Technology Huizhou Co., a Chinese supplier of Nvidia Corp., surged 57% in its Hong Kong trading debut after raising $2.6 billion in the city’s largest listing in seven months. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 1:50 p.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix was little changed Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.1% The Shanghai Composite fell 0.2% Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.4% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1776 The Japanese yen was little changed at 158.96 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8147 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.7% to $75,748.76 Ether fell 1.1% to $2,312.08 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.25% Japan’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.375% Australia’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.91% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $88.59 a barrel Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,790.78 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Winnie Hsu, Abhishek Vishnoi and Toby Alder.
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