Asian Stocks Jump on Iran War Offramp, Oil Steady: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks rallied at the open, tracking a Wall Street rally, on optimism that the war that has jolted global markets and disrupted energy supplies may be nearing a conclusion.
Equities in Japan, South Korea and Australia rose, sending the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index up 2.4%. Nine shares rose for every one that declined in the gauge on optimism that an end to the war will ease crude oil flows and support economic growth. Asian technology shares advanced 2.9% after a four-day tumble.
The dollar fell, Treasuries extended their gains, and oil steadied as President Donald Trump said he foresaw the US ending the war with Iran within two to three weeks, and would leave it to other nations to resolve issues with the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude traded just below $105 a barrel, after losing 3.2% on Tuesday.
A resolution would likely restore investor confidence after the five-week conflict roiled energy and equity assets, pushing some gauges into correction territory. Focus will also turn to policymakers’ response to elevated energy costs and supply disruptions and their impact on the economy, as well as whether first-quarter earnings later this month reflect the strain on growth.
“Markets have taken it on the chin for over a month and expectations may have hit a low enough point that any glimmer of hope is now much more valuable,” said Michael Bailey at FBB Capital Partners.
Trump, who will give an address to the nation at 9 pm Eastern Time Wednesday to provide an “important update” on Iran, said the Islamic Republic could still reach a deal with the US. He, however, added that an agreement with Tehran isn’t a prerequisite for the war to conclude. Iran reiterated its five demands must be met before the war against the US and Israel ends.
In other corners of the market, the dollar weakened in early Asian trading. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 2.4% last month, with the greenback emerging as the haven of choice during the war. Treasuries extended their gains with the yield on the benchmark 10-year falling two basis points to 4.29%.
Gold advanced for a fourth consecutive day to trade above $4,700 an ounce. Despite the rebound in the past few days, bullion’s near 12% decline in March was its worst monthly performance since October 2008.
What Bloomberg strategists say…
“Tuesday’s US bounce offers a potential reset point for a market that had become one of the most sensitive expressions of the global AI trade unwind. For Asia, the setup is constructive into the open, especially for beaten-down tech. But whether this evolves into sustained upside will depend on whether this market chooses to stabilize.”
— Brendan Fagan, Macro Strategist, Markets Live. For the full analysis, click here.
It is also unclear how concrete the latest timeline offered by the president will be. Trump is known to frequently offer two weeks as the potential timeframe for big decisions — imposing deadlines on his own administration and regularly blowing past them. The US has also moved additional troops into the region in recent days, preserving the possibility for future escalation if Trump changes his mind.
A third US aircraft carrier strike group is heading to the Middle East as military operations against Iran continue, according to a US official familiar with the matter, after the Navy’s flagship carrier left the region for repairs.
Trump called on other nations to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, expressing his frustration that the monthlong war is unresolved and the latest sign he is looking to exit the conflict as oil and gas prices surge.
“While Trump may be considering an end to hostilities, the key issue — the status of the Strait — remaining unresolved will be what’s more important from the market’s point of view,” said Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com. “It’s difficult to see Iran stepping back without extracting concessions.”
Meanwhile, on the economic front, US data showed consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in March on slightly more upbeat views of business and labor-market conditions.
Job openings fell and hiring slowed in February, pointing to cooler labor demand before the war.
“There do appear to be some early signs of stabilization in both consumer confidence and job openings after a clear fourth-quarter downtrend,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “While that doesn’t yet signal a meaningful rebound, it may suggest the consumer and labor backdrop are no longer deteriorating at the same pace.”
Corporate News:
Nike Inc.’s shares extended declines after the company projected a drop in revenue for the current quarter, exacerbating investor concerns that the war in Iran could hurt turnaround efforts. OpenAI has completed a deal to raise $122 billion from investors at an $852 billion valuation, marking the company’s largest funding round to date. China Vanke Co. posted a record 88.6 billion yuan ($12.8 billion) loss last year, a sign of the deepening problems facing the developer ahead of a wall of upcoming debt maturities. Huawei Technologies Co.’s growth decelerated sharply after Apple Inc.’s iPhone 17 made headway in China and domestic challengers in AI chipmaking emerged. Nvidia Corp. is taking a $2 billion stake in Marvell Technology Inc. and opening up its system to allow Marvell to integrate custom artificial intelligence chips and networking equipment on the platform.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 9:41 a.m. Tokyo time Hang Seng futures rose 1.8% Japan’s Topix rose 3.2% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.8% Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 1.9% Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1577 The Japanese yen was little changed at 158.59 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8829 per dollar The Australian dollar rose 0.4% to $0.6927 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.4% to $67,919.24 Ether fell 0.3% to $2,098.79 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.29% Japan’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.325% Australia’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.92% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.9% to $102.33 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,705.19 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
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