US Stock Futures Waver; Gold Steadies Near $4,000: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — US equity futures struggled for direction as the Federal government shutdown entered a seventh day, depriving investors and policy makers of key data to gauge the health of the economy. Gold came close to $4,000 an ounce before retreating as the dollar strengthened.
Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed after the index reached a new record on Monday after seven days of gains, fueled by tech stocks riding the artificial intelligence spending boom. Treasury yields inched higher. The greenback gained for a second day as President Donald Trump sent mixed messages about the state of talks with Democrats on their biggest demand to end the shutdown. Gold pulled back from a new record above $3,977.
While equities worldwide have surged to successive record highs, worries over the US government stalemate and the political crisis in France have driven investors toward alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin, sending both to new peaks in what has been dubbed the “debasement trade.” At the same time, a flurry of AI-related deals among chipmakers has propelled shares higher and fueled some concerns of a speculative bubble reminiscent of the late-1990s dot-com era.
“Enthusiasm for stocks is starting to wane after another record-breaking start to the week for Wall Street,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB Ltd. That keeps the debasement trade in play, she said. “As global political risks rise, this is continuing to drive demand, and we think that the early morning pullback in the gold price is likely to be used as a buying opportunity.”
For Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd., worries about a tech bubble are overdone. The Magnificent Seven group of tech giants that have powered the bulk of the S&P 500 rally in recent years are trading at valuations in line with their five-ear averages, he said.
“If you’re now about to tell me that they’ve been expensive for five years, well those seven stocks have delivered a total return of >300% in that period of time, and look set to rally even further in the coming months,” Brown said. “In fact, the path of least resistance for the market at large continues to lead to the upside, as earnings growth remains strong, the underlying economy remains resilient, and as the monetary policy backdrop becomes increasingly loose.”
Monday’s Advanced Micro Devices Inc. deal was the latest big-budget data center agreement this year. It follows last month’s announcement that Nvidia Corp. was planning to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI amid demand for tools like ChatGPT and the computing power needed to make them run.
Tech firms are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on advanced chips and data centers, and the final bill may run into the trillions. The financing is coming from venture capital, debt and, lately, some more unconventional arrangements that have raised eyebrows on Wall Street.
Elsewhere, Europe’s Stoxx 600 benchmark edged higher. France’s CAC 40 reversed an early decline as President Emmanuel Macron made a last-ditch effort to salvage the government after Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu’s resignation on Monday. Truckmakers including Volvo AB and Daimler Truck Holding AG fell after US President Donald Trump said 25% duties on medium- and heavy-duty trucks would begin next month.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its gold forecast for December 2026 to $4,900 an ounce, up from $4,300, citing ETF inflows and central-bank buying. According to the latest data, the People’s Bank of China added to its gold holdings in September for an 11th consecutive month.
Such frenzied buying amid a broad decline in the dollar has lifted gold’s gains this year to more than 50%, putting the metal on track for its strongest annual advance since 1979. Investors starting to view gold as a safer asset than the dollar is “really concerning,” said Citadel’s billionaire investor Ken Griffin.
Corporate News:
Shell Plc gained after signaling a recovery in the performance of its oil and gas trading operation. Orsted A/S raised 60 billion Danish kroner ($9.4 billion) through a rights offering that’s critical for the company to tackle the downturn facing the wind-power industry. B&M European Value Retail SA plummeted after the UK discount retailer warned on profit and said it may take as long as 18 months to fix all the company’s “operational weaknesses.” Zurich Insurance Group AG said it will reject BBVA SA’s bid for Banco Sabadell Sabadell SA, raising the stakes in the takeover battle that’s set to end on Friday. Telefonica SA chairman Marc Murtra is conducting a strategic review to kick start growth at the Spanish carrier, with a new strategy to be presented on Nov. 4. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 8:25 a.m. New York time Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were little changed The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1% The MSCI World Index was little changed Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1661 The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3402 The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 150.89 per dollar Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $124,519.25 Ether rose 0.2% to $4,702.2 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 4.16% Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.74% Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.75% Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $61.60 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.1% to $3,965.16 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Anand Krishnamoorthy.
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
