Asian Stocks and US Futures Gain, Dollar Weakens: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — Asian shares rose with US equity-index futures, signaling Wall Street’s advance after an in-line inflation reading may extend.

Contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3% after both indexes gained on Friday, snapping three consecutive days of declines. Asian shares erased earlier losses to advance 0.3% with Hong Kong jumping 1.3%. Japanese shares fell as ex-dividend stocks weighed on the benchmarks. Shares in mainland China rose 0.5% on stronger economic data.

Crude oil fell 0.6% as people familiar with the plans said that OPEC+ will weigh a November supply increase exceeding the 137,000 barrel-a-day hike scheduled for October. Gold rose to a record. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar headed for a second day of declines, weighed down by month-end flows and the risk of a US government shutdown. Treasuries rose.

Top congressional leaders plan to meet with President Donald Trump on Monday, a day before federal funding would expire if an agreement on a short-term spending bill can’t be reached. The bill at issue would only fund the government until mid-November and must pass before Oct. 1.

In the event of a shutdown, “federal workers will be furloughed, which could act as a drag on US economic activity, and things like official economic releases will be put on hold,” Peter Dragicevich, a strategist at Corpay Inc., wrote in a note. “The failure to avoid a government shutdown could further highlight the more challenging backdrop in the US which in turn may exert downward pressure on the dollar.”

US stocks saw dip buying on Friday while the Treasury yield curve marginally steepened as the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, came in as expected.

Traders maintained expectations of a high likelihood the central bank will cut the funds rate again next month in a bid to help bolster a cooling labor market, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg.

What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say…

There is the threat of a government shutdown, but traders have seen this movie before and will expect a last-minute compromise.

— Mark Cranfield, MLIV macro strategist. Click here for the full analysis.

Investors will be focused on the meeting between Trump and congressional leaders aimed at preventing the government shutdown. A closure would threaten the release of data including Friday’s payrolls report, a key gauge for assessing whether the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates next month.

“If this happens, I think traders hate that,” Gareth Nicholson, chief investment officer at Nomura International Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “They hate uncertainty. Labor market is a huge indicator of where risk is gonna go.”

Chinese equities were in focus in Asia amid signs that policies to address overcapacity and deflation in the economy had begun to take hold ahead of the Golden Week holiday that begins Wednesday.

Chinese industrial profits in August climbed 20.4% from a year earlier, the first increase in four months, according to data released Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Factory deflation eased for the first time in six months.

Part of the rebound reflected last year’s low base and the government’s recent push to rein in overcapacity in sectors like electric vehicles and heavy industry, said Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group. The numbers give the market “a welcome confidence boost,” Wu said.

“Policy support and stabilization efforts are starting to take effect, which should give short-term relief to investors concerned about corporate earnings,” Wu said.

Elsewhere this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates on hold, with traders parsing Governor Michele Bullock’s comments for clues to whether the central bank will cut again. Chinese factory and services activity readings are due as well as the Reserve Bank of India policy decision.

Corporate News:

Nidec Corp. discovered more suspected cases of improper bookkeeping, including some involving a Swiss subsidiary. Sony Financial Group Inc. shares opened 37% above the reference price in their Tokyo debut after Sony Group Corp. spun off and listed the company in a move to focus on its entertainment and image sensor businesses. Chinese precious metals and rare earth stocks gain after the government announced plans to push for breakthroughs in the materials industry in order to boost supply and support new technology and electric vehicle chains. Tata Motors Ltd.-owned Jaguar Land Rover has sought £2 billion ($2.7 billion) in emergency funding from global banks as the carmaker tries to ease the financial strain of a cyberattack that forced it to halt production, the Economic Times reported. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. shares rose as much as 3.6% as its ADRs’ price target was boosted by Morgan Stanley on higher cloud growth estimates, driven by increased capital expenditure, model upgrades, strategic partnerships and accelerated international expansion. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 12:57 p.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix fell 1.6% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.6% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.3% The Shanghai Composite rose 0.1% Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.3% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1727 The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 148.92 per dollar The offshore yuan rose 0.3% to 7.1234 per dollar Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $111,885.89 Ether rose 1.7% to $4,121.71 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.16% Japan’s 10-year yield declined 1.5 basis points to 1.640% Australia’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.34% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.8% to $65.22 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.9% to $3,794.21 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Michael G. Wilson, Joanne Wong and Winnie Hsu.

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