Stock Rally Builds on Hopes for US-EU Trade Deal: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — A record-breaking run in stocks gained fuel as the US reached a trade agreement with Japan while speculation grew about a similar deal with the European Union. Treasuries halted a five-day rally and the dollar fell as demand for haven assets waned.

The S&P 500 hit all-time highs on news reports the EU and the US are progressing toward an agreement that would set a 15% tariff for most products. In late hours, Alphabet Inc. reported better-than-expected revenue, but said capital expenditures will be higher than previously forecast. Tesla Inc.’s earnings fell short of Wall Street’s estimates.

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Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points to 4.39%. Bonds remained lower even after a strong $13 billion sale of 20-year securities that tested the appetite for long-maturity debt. Japan’s 40-year government bond auction saw its weakest demand since 2011.

The EU and the US have accelerated talks over the past weeks to avoid a full-blown trade war. Bloomberg News reported that European officials are optimistic that a deal can be reached, but negotiations remain fluid.

“Momentum is building with trade deals a week ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “The adage ‘don’t short a dull tape’ seems apropos, given the steady move higher for equities with low volatility.”

Read: Meme Revival Turns Focus to Stocks at Risk of a ‘Gamma Squeeze’

President Donald Trump’s top trade negotiators hailed their approach toward addressing grievances with Japan as a possible incentive for the EU.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Japan’s pledge of billions in US investments “could be” a model for the EU. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stopped short of saying the bloc can win the same sort of deal.

“With the Aug. 1 deadline looming, investors have been encouraged by the recent trade-deal announcements,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets. “The progress on the trade war will provide clarity and help the market move forward to incorporate the new global trade environment.”

At Interactive Brokers, Jose Torres says this week’s news of cemented trade agreements is supporting the “animal spirits” we’re seeing in equity markets. 

“The deals are bolstering economic growth projections and offering confidence to investors that the path for corporate earnings expansion remains clear and wide,” he said.

Meanwhile, hesitation regarding income prospects has led to participants doubting whether firms can deliver strong top and bottom lines while additionally providing robust outlooks, according to Torres.

“Incoming quarterly performance reports will probably be well received by Wall Street as economic activity has been buoyant in the second quarter while the skies ahead are clearing up from here,” he concluded.

Signs of stock-market complacency are emerging as the searing equity rally coincides with an acceleration in earnings downgrades, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. quantitative strategists led by Khuram Chaudhry.

“There appears to be an environment of bullish sentiment, speculation, and a growing air of complacency,” they wrote. “Either sell-side analysts are about to start a new round of upward revisions or the market is at risk of suffering a period of increased volatility and draw-downs. Something has to give!”

US stocks will shrug off tariff risks to get a boost from the second-quarter earnings season, the latest Markets Pulse survey showed.

Equities will beat Treasuries and deliver better volatility-adjusted returns as the reporting season ramps up in the coming weeks, according to nearly two-thirds of the 102 participants in a poll conducted July 10-17. The positive outlook for stocks continues to be underpinned by technology, and the sector is poised to perform strongest this earnings season, respondents noted.

“The trend remains positive,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates. “Earnings continue to deliver better than average beats.”

While valuations are steep, the prospects of supporting lower interest rates are good in the medium term, and the expectations of further tariff agreements will provide short-term catalysts, he said.

“Focus will stay on trade and earnings,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “On trade, the Japan deal will raise hopes a similar deal with the EU can be stuck before next Friday.”

Bond traders are boosting bets that the Federal Reserve will slash rates more aggressively next year, pricing about 75 basis points of cuts. That compares to 25 basis points projected in April.

Trump said the Fed board “should act” on lowering rates, “but they don’t have the courage to do so.” Meantime, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there’s “no rush” to identify a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Corporate Highlights:

• International Business Machines Corp. reported weaker-than-expected sales in its closely watched software segment, disappointing investors who have grown increasingly optimistic about the business.
• T-Mobile US Inc., the nation’s second-largest wireless provider, reported more new subscribers than analysts were expecting in the second quarter, overcoming a sluggish start to the year.
• Mattel Inc. introduced a new forecast for 2025 sales and profit — two months after pulling its previous outlook over the uncertainty tied to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
• ServiceNow Inc. gave a strong outlook for revenue growth and touted customer adoption of its artificial intelligence software tools.
• Microsoft Corp. stands to gain from new White House AI guidelines that call on the US Federal Trade Commission to show more restraint in probes involving artificial intelligence and stand down on cases that put “AI innovation” at risk.
• Texas Instruments Inc., a key chipmaker for producers of cars and factory equipment, sank after stoking fears that a tariff-fueled surge in demand will be short-lived.
• AT&T Inc. reported second-quarter results that mostly exceeded Wall Street estimates, including faster-than-expected growth in wireless phone subscribers after offering perks and incentives to attract customers from rivals.
• Fiserv Inc.’s stock plunged after the financial-technology company reported lackluster growth in its merchant business.
• GE Vernova Inc. has increased its sales of transformers and other electrical equipment to big tech firms building large data centers.
• Infosys Ltd. raised the lower end of its sales forecast for the year, signaling it had a little more certainty of how clients are spending on business transformation projects.
• Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. lowered expectations for net income for 2025 as demand for US hotel bookings declined in the second quarter.
• Moody’s Corp., a bond grader and financial data provider, reported second-quarter revenue that beat analysts’ estimates, underscoring credit markets’ relatively quick recovery from April’s tariff-fueled tumult.

What Markets Live says:

“A slow start to US trade progress had greatly curbed investor expectations for timely deals. Now that there’s been a steady stream of news flow to the contrary, investors have been more than happy to load up on equities.

Of course, the downside of headline-driven trading is that stock sentiment is vulnerable to turning on a dime. Unless there’s a big macro shock that recalibrates the outlook for risk assets in coming months, there’s enough animal spirits in markets to sustain the stock rally.”

– Kristine Aquino, Managing Editor, Markets Live US

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Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
• The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
• The MSCI World Index rose 1.1%
• Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.6%
• The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.5%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
• The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1774
• The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3582
• The Japanese yen was little changed at 146.53 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $118,437.51
• Ether fell 3.2% to $3,589.98

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.39%
• Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.64%
• Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.63%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $65.46 a barrel
• Spot gold fell 1.2% to $3,390.28 an ounce

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