US Stock Futures Advance, Oil Declines on OPEC+: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — US equity-index futures rose in early Asian trading, signaling that Wall Street’s advance after an in-line inflation reading may extend.

Contracts for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 index gained 0.3% after both indexes advanced on Friday, snapping three consecutive days of declines. Asian shares were mixed with Japan declining as ex-dividend stocks with fiscal year endings in March and September weighed on the benchmarks. Shares rose in South Korea and Australia.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 1% early Monday as people familiar with the plans said that OPEC+ will weigh a November supply increase exceeding the 137,000 barrel-a-day hike scheduled for October. The dollar edged down as traders monitored the threat of a possible US government shutdown.

Top congressional leaders plan to meet with President Donald Trump on Monday, a day before federal funding would expire if an agreement on a short-term spending bill can’t be reached. A shutdown would threaten the release of key data including Friday’s payrolls report, key to assessing whether the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates next month.

“If we hear early this week that the NFP report will be delayed, traders may recalibrate their approach to risk and increase their sensitivity” to other employment data, Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a note to clients.

What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say…

The expectation of more Fed rate cuts is providing resilience for stock markets, with investors gaming a solid finish to the year for risk assets. Trump tariffs, economic data and geopolitical risks are being overlooked as the AI bandwagon rolls on. For Chinese stocks, rebounding industrial profits are set to give them a bright start.”

— Mark Cranfield, MLIV macro strategist. Click here for the full analysis.

US stocks saw dip buying on Friday while the Treasury yield curve marginally steepened as the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, came in as expected. Traders maintained expectations of a high likelihood the central bank will cut the funds rate again next month in a bid to help bolster a cooling labor market, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg.

Focus in Asia will shift to Chinese equities amid signs policies to address overcapacity and deflation in the economy are taking hold ahead of the Golden Week holiday that begins Wednesday.

Chinese Industrial profits in August climbed 20.4% from a year earlier, the first increase in four months, according to data released Saturday by the National Bureau of Statistics. Factory deflation eased for the first time in six months.

Elsewhere this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates on hold, with traders parsing Governor Michele Bullock’s comments for clues to whether the central bank will cut again. Chinese factory and services activity readings are due as well as the Reserve Bank of India policy decision.

Corporate News:

Nidec Corp. discovered more suspected cases of improper bookkeeping, including some involving a Swiss subsidiary. Sony Financial Group Inc. shares are untraded at open and are set to rise on debut on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Monday after being spun off from Sony Group Corp.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% as of 9:58 a.m. Tokyo time Hang Seng futures rose 0.6% Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) were little changed Japan’s Topix fell 1.6% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.9% Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.3% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1722 The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 149.19 per dollar The offshore yuan rose 0.1% to 7.1362 per dollar The Australian dollar rose 0.2% to $0.6556 Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $112,285.47 Ether rose 1.9% to $4,128.4 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.16% Japan’s 10-year yield advanced 1.5 basis points to 1.655% Australia’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.35% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $65.11 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.7% to $3,785.60 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Matthew Burgess.

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