Stocks Tick Higher Ahead of US Private Payrolls: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg) — US stock futures are signaling a second day of modest gains as traders wager that economic data due Wednesday will reinforce expectations for an interest-rate cut next week. Bitcoin extended its rebound.
Contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.2%. The gain adds to a cautious rebound from November’s slump, after dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and the expected appointment of a chair seen as favoring easier policy have bolstered bets on a faster pace of rate cuts through 2026.
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Treasuries firmed and the dollar slipped ahead of an ADP Research report that’s expected to show a deterioration in private-sector payroll growth. The data has taken on added importance with official releases still delayed. A separate report is likely to show softer growth in November services activity.
“Instead of non-farm payrolls, people are going to look at ADP. Instead of the inflation numbers, they’re going to look at things like the ISM service print,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St. James’s Place. “Without that clear runway of data, sentiment is always going to be precarious.”
Bitcoin pushed above $93,000 to a two-week high as the broader crypto space looks to sustain a recovery. Ether and other major tokens also edged higher. The digital-asset sector remains on shaky ground, however, after a bruising downturn wiped out more than $1 trillion in value.
With equity strategists forecasting more gains next year after a stellar 2025, some analysts warned that the ride higher will be choppy. The outlook for further upside is clouded by concerns over stretched valuations, heavy reliance on the technology sector for gains and geopolitical shocks.
Money markets are favoring four rate cuts by the end of next year, with Kevin Hassett increasingly viewed as President Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Jerome Powell at the helm of the Fed. Trump said he would announce his decision early next year.
“The fundamental outlook for the S&P 500 still leans toward a positive medium-term scenario,” wrote Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com. “However, this upward trajectory is likely to experience significant intermittent corrections.”
Bond traders are piling into bets that a new Fed chair and the release of delayed data will support Trump’s calls for lower rates.
In the US futures market, demand is building for short-term curve structures linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which closely tracks perceived outcomes of Fed interest rate decisions.
The wagers reflect the potential for policy easing to gather pace after Powell’s term ends in May. The June 17 announcement will be the first under a new central bank chief.
For equity investors, while Powell may next week signal a slowing in the pace of 2026 cuts and emphasize a data-dependent approach, “expectations of a new dovish Fed chair is likely to offset any hawkishness from the meeting,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies. “We remain positive on risky assets.”
What Bloomberg Strategists Say…
“Bitcoin’s recent improvement toward $94,000 is notable because, despite the depth of the selloff, it never showed the hallmarks of a market under severe stress. The data indicate the market was unwinding an earlier stretch rather than breaking down, which has helped create space for a more durable recovery.”
— Nour Al Ali, Markets Live strategist. For full analysis, click here.
Corporate News
Marvell Technology Inc.after reassuring investors that its custom chip-design unit is winning repeat orders. The company also announced plans to acquire startup Celestial AI for about $3.25 billion. A credit-risk gauge on Oracle Corp. debt closed at the highest level since the financial crisis after a flood of bond sales from tech giants amplified concerns that a bubble is forming in the artificial-intelligence industry. HSBC Holdings Plc unexpectedly appointed Brendan Nelson as its next chair, replacing hard-charging financier Mark Tucker who has led Europe’s largest lender for much of the last decade. Airbus SE cut its 2025 aircraft delivery target after discovering production glitches on its bestselling A320 jet that require additional checks. Zara owner Inditex SA’s sales accelerated in November, highlighting its resilience in the face of weakening consumer sentiment that’s hitting many of its peers. The shares soared. Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.2% as of 11:41 a.m. London time S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2% The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was little changed Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1663 The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 155.44 per dollar The offshore yuan rose 0.1% to 7.0571 per dollar The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.3293 Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin rose 1.5% to $92,963.76 Ether rose 2.4% to $3,070.17 Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.07% Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.75% Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 4.45% Commodities
Brent crude rose 1.2% to $63.19 a barrel Spot gold was little changed This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Sujata Rao.
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